TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]

[FreezinIce]

Originally Posted by fatfuck42

I ask because I'm pretty sure you're the only one in the game with a scumlean on him at this point.

i dont trust him after reading how much he flip flopped on his reads and votes last eod. I think anyone with a solid townread on him just hasnt been paying enough attention to what he's actually doing, not saying

[the sun fan]

Originally Posted by fatfuck42

I feel you. I'm grappling with that a bit as well, but I'm still feeling optimistic.

So if you don't see any improvement, you're okay lynching there?

yes, that is my plan

it didn't really seem like you were grappling with that earlier, you called him town rather quickly

[Shadow_God_10]

Trevor you've been in here for a while and haven't said much. Where are you leaning for today?

[fatfuck42]

Originally Posted by the sun fan

yes, that is my plan

it didn't really seem like you were grappling with that earlier, you called him town rather quickly

Earlier I said he was off to a townie start. I'm grappling with it now that I've seen how much of his analysis focuses on trying to explain why FG did what she did. But still, like I said to shadow earlier, in the game subaru rolled wolf with me, he only posted twice, so I feel like his openness here is a good sign.

[the sun fan]

Originally Posted by fatfuck42

Earlier I said he was off to a townie start. I'm grappling with it now that I've seen how much of his analysis focuses on trying to explain why FG did what she did. But still, like I said to shadow earlier, in the game subaru rolled wolf with me, he only posted twice, so I feel like his openness here is a good sign.

you have to admit, for someone who came into the thread with a N O T E P A D, his posts have really not been there, so I would compare it to this wolf game of his that I apparently don't remember

[SubaruPoptart]

I have a question, too. Freezin said this, and nobody really acknowledged it even 4 pages later so I will right now.

Originally Posted by FreezinIce

hardclaiming Marth

Defense Roles
Phoenix Wright

Maya Fey

Miles Edgeworth

Trucy Wright

Ema Skye

Whoever Marth is isn't in this- so what's goin on there?

[SubaruPoptart]

Another miscellaneous question, is Miles Edgeworth being both red and blue a mistake or is it just somethin in the source material I'm unfamiliar with

[the sun fan]

Originally Posted by SubaruPoptart

I have a question, too. Freezin said this, and nobody really acknowledged it even 4 pages later so I will right now.




Defense Roles
Phoenix Wright

Maya Fey

Miles Edgeworth

Trucy Wright

Ema Skye

Whoever Marth is isn't in this- so what's goin on there?

have you seriously never played Super Smash Bros?

in short, Freezin was also impersonating Tokzic there

[FreezinIce]

Originally Posted by SubaruPoptart

I have a question, too. Freezin said this, and nobody really acknowledged it even 4 pages later so I will right now.




Defense Roles
Phoenix Wright

Maya Fey

Miles Edgeworth

Trucy Wright

Ema Skye

Whoever Marth is isn't in this- so what's goin on there?

ive waited so long for this

soooooooo long

GOTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT EEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM

[FreezinIce]

at the end of the day we're all impersonating tokzic

[Shadow_God_10]

Originally Posted by SubaruPoptart

I have a question, too. Freezin said this, and nobody really acknowledged it even 4 pages later so I will right now.




Defense Roles
Phoenix Wright

Maya Fey

Miles Edgeworth

Trucy Wright

Ema Skye

Whoever Marth is isn't in this- so what's goin on there?

I... I get you're trying to find information here... But this is a HUGE LOL moment.

You are correct. There is no Marth in this setup if it makes you feel better

Holy fuck I'm dying

Originally Posted by SubaruPoptart

Another miscellaneous question, is Miles Edgeworth being both red and blue a mistake or is it just somethin in the source material I'm unfamiliar with

It is not a mistake. Please refer to the signups thread. If there is a blue Edgeworth, there is never going to be a red Edgeworth.

The same goes the other way around. If there is a red Edgeworth, there is no blue Edgeworth

[TWGma]

Originally Posted by FreezinIce

alright time to do some work

=====

flashflash account (5) - fatfuck42, DaBackpack, Shadow_God_10, TWGma, Ulleabhara
Ulleabhara (4) - Xiz, FreezinIce, mellonxcollie, Funnygurl555
TWGma (2) - YoshL, Hakulyte
DaBackpack (1) - the sun fan

------

Not Voting (1): flashflash account

====

I moved Ulli's vote to FFA because for all intents and purposes thats where it was.

Now,for a wagon analysis you'd ideally like to have 1 red flip to really start being able to draw conclusions. The fact that both the top wagons are definitively town is also not great. So this is more to organize my thoughts than anything.

You have 2 major groups that emerge from this EoD:

>People who have took a side on FFA vs Ulli
>People who stayed out of it for various reasons

from a wolfs pov as a human vs human interaction with no stakes in the outcome, i would bet the safer play would be to stay out compared to weigh in.

So i think that there is likely a wolf in the following group of people who stayed out of the EoD clusterfuck (Sunfan, YoshiL, Haku).

I think law of averages puts a wolf in the other group as well, so the trick now is finding which of those votes looks the most out of place.

(20 Mins later)

Well i reread eod a few times and theres and this is what i have

Good:

>DBP had an actual reason for his vote that made sense
>Xiz had an actual reason for his vote that made sense
>Mellos vote made sense because you could see the thought process that led to her finally settling on Ulli

???:

>Fg voted plop then ulli. I read the explanation that someone else gave for why she did it and was like "ok w/e"
>Plop started the FFA Wagon, dunno if thats good or bad, he was kind of slow burning on FFA then this comes out of nowhere

Bad

shadow moved his vote like 28945432879 times
tforce materialized a vote from nowhere on FFA

So 2nd wolf can be within (FG/Subaru, Plop, Shadow, Tforce)

3rd wolf could be in either of those groups

Dont think DBP is wolfing
Dont think Mello is wolfing

After resetting and actually thinking about the game, those are my only 2 ride or die townreads, everyone else is on the table.

Stay tuned for part 2 coming whenever i feel like it

I like the work here, and I would agree with the conclusion of one wolf on each section (trains vs. non), but I'd also wonder if there'd be one on each:
one on FFA, one on Ulle, and one non.

To borrow from Freezin:
flashflash account (5) - fatfuck42, DaBackpack, Shadow_God_10, TWGma, Ulleabhara
Ulleabhara (4) - Xiz, FreezinIce, mellonxcollie, Funnygurl555
TWGma (2) - YoshL, Hakulyte
DaBackpack (1) - the sun fan

Party 1:
Plop, DBP, Shadow, myself, Ulle.

Ulle is automatically removed for obvious reasons.
Shadow I think is fine with this vote.
DBP's is also for pressure purposes, iirc, but isn't too bad.

Plop's and mine I'd argue look at worst as Plop's is the starting one, and mine has the worst reasoning behind it in comparison.

However, I've noticed that wolves like leaving early votes on wagons if it looks like they can gain traction and this coincides nicely with my read on Plop.



Party 2:
Xiz, Freezin, Raeko, Funnygurl

Xiz is excluded.
Raeko's is also fine based on her inclination and defense of this vote, so I feel this is genuine. Plus, the timing isn't bad as it's still a pressure vote instead of thrown about trying tom get it to stick.

Freezin and FG.
FG's vote was a last second preserve vote to throw them into KITB.
The flips show that there wasn't much of a partner save, but I re-iterate my post on relationships and I think FG just wanted FFA around for defense purposes.

As for Freezin's, let me find this... once the forums stop being a cheesecake.
Yeah, seemed to be natural progression. Plus emphasizing the vote the way he did is also interesting because I don't think a wolf would want to draw that much attention if/when the target flips town.

FG just looks bad here.



Party 3:
FFA, YoshL, Haku, sunfan

FFA is exempt.
YoshL's vote I've already covered in a prior breakdown last day, and I still feel that way about it.

Haku's looked the worst to me for a blatant sheep and no reasoning to it, but then not moving it when other wagons got traction. And we know Haku was in the thread, so I can't give him the benefit of not being around like sunfan.
However, Haku's play afterwards makes me think this was just a town flailing trying to follow their best town read's play at the time.

sunfan's vote is an early pressure and then he left.
It should also be noted, he did state in post #441 that he'd swap back to me if he returned, but I do wonder if that really would be the case considering the wagons at the time.
Regardless, this one is a toss-up for me because IRL situations are just purely NAI. However, POE puts it at the forefront for this exercise.


So to pick a wolf from each party, I'd have to say: Plop, FG/Subaru, and sunfan.




Also, re-reading there, I stumbled across this nugget.

Originally Posted by FreezinIce

T force getting votes



Ok?????????????

Freezin, why were you surprised at the votes on me then?
Did you think that I was a town and surprised that I was getting voted? Or did you not like the reasoning? I'm curious.

[roundbox]

Votecount:
the sun fan (3) - YoshL, Hakulyte, FreezinIce
TWGma (2) - DaBackpack, fatfuck42
SubaruPoptart (2) - Shadow_God_10, the sun fan
fatfuck42 (1) - TWGma

------

Not Voting (2): mellonxcollie, SubaruPoptart

Today's theme:

[Hakulyte]

Internet is shaky here even outside of FFR.

I've been staring at error messages since like 30 minutes.

I'm not even sure if this will reach the thread.

[the sun fan]

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

Internet is shaky here even outside of FFR.

I've been staring at error messages since like 30 minutes.

I'm not even sure if this will reach the thread.

it reached the thread
if you have the time, I think you owe me a good reason as to why freezin is off the table for today

he should have said enough words by now for you to comment

[Shadow_God_10]

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

Internet is shaky here even outside of FFR.

I've been staring at error messages since like 30 minutes.

I'm not even sure if this will reach the thread.

The site seems to be at normal speed now.

Message recieved.

How are you Haku?

[Hakulyte]

Originally Posted by TWGma

Haku's looked the worst to me for a blatant sheep and no reasoning to it, but then not moving it when other wagons got traction. And we know Haku was in the thread, so I can't give him the benefit of not being around like sunfan.
However, Haku's play afterwards makes me think this was just a town flailing trying to follow their best town read's play at the time.

Have you solved me or you just don't need to ?

[FreezinIce]

Originally Posted by TWGma

Freezin, why were you surprised at the votes on me then?
Did you think that I was a town and surprised that I was getting voted? Or did you not like the reasoning? I'm curious.

if i remember correctly the wagon for you appeared out of nowhere, for no reason, and i was thinking wtf is going on. Tried questioning FG about it and she completely ignored me.

[TWGma]

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

Have you solved me or you just don't need to ?

Trying to solve you based on that vote is like trying to solve pi.
Great in theory, but it'll just keep going and eventually I'll give up because there's no way to do it.

I said earlier in the thread that I liked your constant chatter with Shadow and DBP and felt that was townier than not because, as a wolf, it would be easy for you to just dip out of the conversation, but you kept into it without losing your head.

[TWGma]

Originally Posted by FreezinIce

if i remember correctly the wagon for you appeared out of nowhere, for no reason, and i was thinking wtf is going on. Tried questioning FG about it and she completely ignored me.

The best advice I can give is never ever take an FG vote on me on D0 seriously.