TWG CLXXXI - TWGreeD - Postgame

[FreezinIce]

Humans win!


1. Mellonxcollie (Wolf, conceded)
2. indheart (human, survived to win)
3. Wayward Vagabond (human, survived to win)
4. DaBackpack (Wolf, lynched Day 4)
5. Precarious (human, lynched day 1)
6. Roundbox (Wolf, lynched day 5)
7. Funnygirl555 (human, lynched day 2)
8. DarkManticoreX2 (human, lynched day 3)
9. Charu (human, killed night 4)
10. Anti-Pearl theknightsofneeee (human, killed night 2)
11. Syhto (human, killed night 1)
12. MML (human, survived to win)
13. Sunfan (human, survived to win)
14. Hakulyte (human, survived to win)

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Deadchat https://discord.gg/QvRsmvF

Wolfchat https://discord.gg/ahqcQPc

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Game explanation

ALL CREDIT TO RED FOR THE FOLLOWING EXPLANATION

Guidelines for role strength and assignment

Roughly, role strength was determined by the number of humans out of the remaining human pool who requested roles. This also determined the strength of wolf roles. If wolves requested blue roles, it strengthened the roles of humans by a ratio roughly around -1.3 to -1.5 human requests.*

Essentially I used a baseline for a balanced game with 14 players, 3 wolves, and 3 traditional human roles (seer, guardian, psychic). So if, on night 1, three humans requested roles and no wolves did, assigned roles would have been those roles or equivalent ones.*

I developed am extensive list of custom made roles, to which I assigned relative strengths between 1 and 8. Based on the number of human requests versus ratio of remaining humans, and number of wolf requests each night, I determined a 2 digit range from which I would pull roles from my list. For example, if the humans had been greedy in their ratio of requested roles, and the wolves had been good and not requested any, humans might get an array of level 5 to level 6 roles, but probably more level 6 roles than 5.*

The baselines for role strength were based on the three core roles, to which I roughly assigned seer a 2, guardian a 3, and psychic a 3.*

Once the roles were picked (a set of roles for humans, a set of roles for wolves) they were assigned by double blind.

Guidelines for sabotage:*
Perfect guesses sabotaged half and stole one role. In the case of even numbers, the stolen role would come from the half of roles sabotaged, but the role itself was not sabotaged. (i.e., 4 human blue roles with a correct wolf guess -> 1 sabotaged role, 1 stolen role, 2 normal roles.) In the case of odd numbers, the stolen role was the odd numbered role (i.e., 5 human blue roles with a correct wolf guess -> 2 sabotaged role, 1 stolen role, 2 normal roles.)

Wolf guesses off by +-1 resulted in one sabotaged role.

Humans were not told if their role was sabotaged; they were sent the usual role assignment PM.
Humans whose role was stolen were told "You do not have a role."
The wolf who sent in the wolf guess for the number of humans was always assigned the stolen role. This was in addition to whatever role they may have requested for themselves.*
The roles sabotaged and stolen were chosen randomly.
Wolves were not told what or whose roles they sabotaged, or even if they successfully sabotaged. They were only informed of their stolen role.



===



Wolf Team: DBP, Mellon, Roundbox

TWILIGHT:

Humans requesting blue: precarious, manti, charu (3/11)
Wolves requesting blue: roundbox (1/3)
Wolf guess for # human blue roles: 6 (incorrect)
Wolf target: N/A

Humans request a pretty decent ratio of roles (3/11) and wolves want a taste of the action, so they request a role. This causes the humans roles to improve a good amount. To make things worse, the wolves completely botch the sabotage guess. Overall a win for the humans.

Roles given:

Unbreakable: You cannot be killed for one day and one night.

Palm Reader: You know the number of humans who requested blue roles for the phase.

Seer: Pick a player and learn if they are human or wolf.

Wolf roles given:

Paint roller: Pick a player and roleblock them for a night

Role spread (Twilight)

Charu: Palm Reader
Manti: Unbreakable
Precarious: Seer
===
Roundbox: Paint Roller.

Day 1

A somewhat typical d1 for the ffr meta. The wolves get heat early, the blame gets kicked around, and near eod precarious unfortunately bites it. I guess people don't like lists. His death doesn't really illuminate the path forward and seems more of just a "might as well" kill. To humans credit, they sort of figure this out during the night.

Charu gets pressured near eod and vomits up his role to save himself. Sadly he grossly underestimated its usefulness. Had he held on to it he could have called for a mass claim the next day, built a giant town circle, and probably picked out the wolf among them by comparing role strengths. Alas, he does not and the opportunity seems wasted.

The saving grace is the wolves think it's useless as well, which plays itself out the next night.

The humans second most useful role gets killed when Precarious dies as well, putting the humans a bit behind the 8ball.



+++



NIGHT 1:

Humans requesting blue: wv, charu (2/10)
Wolves requesting blue: roundbox (1/3)
Wolf guess for # human blue roles: 4 (incorrect)
Roundbox roleblocks Syhto.
Wolf target: Syhto

Humans again request a favorable number of roles. The wolves again strengthen them by asking for one. Another good night for the humans, although the wolves probably get their best tier 2 role in Sadim. Slight advantage to humans though it isn't as lopsided as it was twilight.

Wolves using their roleblock on syhto when they knew charu was blue was ????????Probably due to seriously underestimating his role strength.

Wolves are slowly course correcting their sabotage guesses, though they still overshot it

Roles given:

Savant: The next time you ask for a role, it will be supercharged:
- The role will be picked from the highest tier possible.
- Your request will not count towards the total number of blue roles requested for the humans

Cleric (Salted): A random human will secretly be picked. As long as you are alive, they will be automatically resurrected upon death. After you die, the protection persists for another phase, then dissipates. If they have died once already, the protection goes away immediately upon your death. After being resurrected from a lynch, they can no longer resurrect again.

Wolf roles given:

Sadim: Choose any player (including yourself):
-If you choose a human: nullify their vote for the next day and cause the next role they request to be weaker.
-If you choose a wolf: thier vote counts for +1 the next day and the next role they request does not strengthen human blue roles that night.
-If you choose Sadim: the next role Sadim requests is of the highest tier and does not strengthen human blue roles. No other wolf can request roles that night.

DAY 2:

A lot of good investigating, a lot of good poking, and some good conclusions drawn (considering there's no cardflips). And somehow the eod wagon becomes funnygirl and MML. Humans having problems focusing on early phase targets and the wolves are slipping out of the spotlight. Things are a bit more dicey and raeko in particular looks to be on the chopping block next day but who knows if the humans will follow through or get distracted again.

Charu understands the full potential of his role and humans gain a bit of perspective and leads to more roles being requested the next night. He doesn't leverage it into a mass claim though, which given the low number of humans who requested roles, might have been a wise decision

Funnygirl gets put in a kitb with mml and she gets the axe when she isn't even here to defend herself (a ffr special). everyone feels bad afterwards



+++



NIGHT 2:

Humans requesting blue: wv, haku manti, indheart, sunfan (4/7, WVs role excludes him)
Wolves requesting blue: roundbox (1/3)
Wolf guess for # human blue roles: 3 (incorrect)
Roundbox uses Sidam on dabackpack (+1 secret vote and next role requested doesn't strengthen human roles)
Wolf target: neeee

Roles given:

Insured Seer (WV): You are a seer. Your results will be posted in the thread even if you die or get roleblocked

Fortune Teller (Haku): Choose a target. The next time they recieve (not request) a role, you will learn what it is via host pm.

Guardian (Indheart): Choose a target that is not yourself and they will be protected from dying once that night

Romani (Manti): Choose a target. You will be told the last blue role they had.

White Knight (Sunfan): Choose a target. If your target is a wolf, that person gets an extra secret vote against them for the day. If your target is a human or blue, nothing happens. Results of the pick are not announced or revealed. Secret votes are not counted till end of day and can't cause Insta.

Wolf roles given:

Bus driver (Roundbox): Pick 2 players, actions affecting one will instead target the other secretly.

DAY 3

Manti is lynched



+++



NIGHT 3

Humans requesting blue: Sunfan, indheart (2/6)
Wolves requesting blue: roundbox (1/3)
Wolf guess for # human blue roles: 3 (Partially correct; 1 role sabotaged)
Roundbox busses Haku and Raeko
Sunfan white knights Raeko (Actual target: Haku)
Indheart guards WV
Haku uses Fortune Teller on Raeko (Actual Target: Himself)
WV seers DBP
Wolf target: Indheart

Roles given (Significantly downgraded due to Scapegoat):

Joker (Sunfan): Pick two names. One of those two names will be randomly selected to be killed. If the selected person is a wolf, they will not die.

Fool (Indheart): The day phase after this role activates, if you are the first one to cast a vote that day, it is worth 1.1 votes. Otherwise it is worth .9

Wolf roles given:

Scapegoat (Roundbox): Recieve a random reverse tarot curse. Greatly downgrade all human powers requested the previous night. The curse applies immediately upon requesting the role

CURSE GIVEN : Reversed Wheel of Fortune

Curse: Breaking Wheel.

This curse is announced at day start to be active. Everyone receives an additional purple vote that must be cast on another player.

Failure to cast a vote afflicts them with Cursed: Courting Misfortune

If you recieve one vote, you recieve 3 secret votes. If you recieve 2 votes, you die.

These negative effects only affect you (roundbox)

DAY 4:

Indheart is resurrected by Charu's power.

DBP is lynched

Roundbox recieved no purple votes. The curse dissipates.

Roundbox is given a random curse due to not placing a purple vote.



+++



NIGHT 4

Humans requesting blue: haku (1/5)
Wolves requesting blue: None (0/2)
Wolf guess for # human blue roles: 4 (incorrect)
Sunfan uses Joker on MML and Raeko (SABOTAGED: 50% FAIL RATE) ROLE FAILS TO ACTIVATE
Indheart Fool activates for the next day
Wolf target: Charu

Roles received:

Midas (Haku): Choose a player (including yourself)

If they are human (not including yourself), they gain +1 voting power secretly when voting for wolves. The next role they request is immune to sabotage or stealing

If they are a wolf, any non killing action they use that night is cancelled and they get a secret vote against them.

If they are midas (yourself), IMMEDIATELY gain a new role. First, you will be asked to name a role name. If that role exists, you will recieve that role (Some roles cannot be given. Naming an ineligible role will prompt you to choose again. ) If you fail to name a role or choose not to, you will instead recieve a random role from the game. It will be in the top 50% of relative strength guaranteed.


Wolf roles given:

N/A; curse recieved.

The Hanged Man (Roundbox):

Without fail, you will be tomorrows lynch. The only way to prevent this is for NO LYNCH to recieve the majority of votes

DAY 5:

Roundbox is lynched, Raeko concedes.



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MVP probably split between sunfan and wv. Wv for the devastating seering, and sunfan for eventually narrowing down the wolf team and leading town.

Mml gets an honorable mention for naming the wolf team and being ahead of the curve with his instincts in the late part of the game.