TWG XXXI: A Blast From The Past

[Wilkin]

Well, if both Saulus and I can say that we weren't wolfed, then that would leave either the Vamp or the guarded (hopefully not both at the same time), in which a pretty touch decision would have to be made.

[talisman]

well, yeah, and it would be awfully nice of you to tell us if you had been wolfed, but somehow I doubt you would.

[FishFishRevolution]

Even if you are wolfed, what are you going to do? I mean, the wovles can contact you or whatever, but, what are you going to tell them? "Alright guys let's go...kill someone." Everyone should just be careful about what information gets to whom.

[Tasselfoot]

I said this to Fish over AIM. I feel it should be noted, as it hasn't yet.

There are 3 wolves. There are 3 ress. That leaves 10, 2 of which are blue.

nForcer died. That means there was a 22% chance he was blue (2/9, not including me).

EDIT: wrong math, lol.

[Wilkin]

Interesting scenario:

The guardian guards one of the known RRs, and if they are in fact attacked, then the guard would prevent the ressurection, and perhaps that person could play both sides (either myself or Saulus).

The biggest problem, though, is knowing who got "guarded," or if it was a ressurection at all, making this a very difficult procedure to pull off for either side.

I have to interject here, because this whole game will be painful to read if I don't.

The word is spelled:
resurrection
r-e-s-u-r-r-e-c-t-i-o-n

One "S", two "R"s.

That is all.

[Tasselfoot]

Chardish: I spelled it that way to Blah over AIM... he replied with it spelled ressurection. I assumed he was right.

Stupid Blah.

[Wilkin]

Same as I. Maybe I'm just used to the old AOL game terminology of "rezz"s.

[GuidoHunter]

Originally Posted by Wilkin

Well, for lack of a better wording, I'm Judas.

The pros outweight the cons in this situation, and if Saulus also comes out, then we'll be sure to get rid of the Vamp/SK swiftly if/when that time comes.

I'd just like to come out, too. I'm human, guys, so don't waste a lynch on me.

--Guido

http://andy.mikee385.com

[MiniNeo]

... What the hell lol, since when does people actually believe you when you say you are human?

[Kefit]

Uh oh wall of text time.

The Saulus REALLY shouldn't reveal himself, unless it is with the intent of getting lynched. Furthermore, if the Judas dies and is resurrected on the side of the wolves, we need to lynch him. Here's why:

The Judas and the the Saulus, when on the side of the wolves, each allow the wolves to win one day earlier. In a game with 18 people and 3 wolves, the wolves would normally need to survive six lynchings, getting to night 7, before they could win. However, if on Day 6 there are 3 wolves, the Saulus, and 3 humans, then the wolves+Saulus can end the day immediately with their votes, resulting in wolf victory with one less lynching survival than normally required. Effectively, the wolves would be locked into victory after evading the Day 5 lynching in this case. Adding the Judas to the mix merely allows the wolves to begin their unstoppable win earlier. Of course, this only works when the wolves and the Saulus (or Judas after resurrection) are colluding, but we can probably be assured that that will be happening if the Saulus reveals himself or if Wilken dies and is ressurected.

Now by lynching the Saulus, we gain half a day on the wolves - wolf autovictory is pushed back a day, the wolves have one less lynching to survive, but we gain an additional human when the Saulus resurrects on our side. Thus the Saulus should be lynched when we see him, no questions asked. The Judas, on the other hand, is a bit trickier. Lynching him pushes wolf autovictory back a day andgives the wolves one less lynching to survive, but we don't gain an additional human. Thus, we break even. However, the longer the game goes on, the more likely it is that some pertinent info will come up, either from the seer or from posts/chatlogs. Thus, we want to extend the game, and we need to lynch the Judas/Wilken if he is resurrected.

Of course, I haven't yet factored in the possibility of resurections pushing wolf victory back. Each resurrection has the same effect as a failed wolfing. Wolf victory gets pushed back half a day, regardless of who gets ressurrected. This means that the wolves want to avoid hitting resurrecting roles if possible. The exception is the Judas - hitting him will knock wolves back half a day, but his vote will either move their lock for victory a day forward, or his lynch will act as one less lynch that the wolves have to survive through. Either way effectively moves wolf victory forward by one day, resulting in a net gain of half a day for the wolves. This gain is fairly meaningless now, since half a day won't move victory foward at all, but if another player is resurrected at some point, then the wolves can gain back the half day they lose by wolfing Judas, thus returning to their original day of victory. In other words, Judas is a prime wolfing target, something which should probably be kept in mind by the guardian. Furthermore, if the wolves lose half a day to a resurrection somewhere along the line, then they have nothing to lose by going after Judas - if he is guarded they lose half a day, which isn't enough to knock wolf victory back to the next day, and if he isn't guarded then they gain back their half a day and their victory moves forward to where it used to be.

As for the serial murderer? Well, the best option for both us and the wolves is to simply not kill the vampire. However, this is something we really don't have much control over, since the vampire wants human victory, and will just act like a normal human. If the vampire is killed and then resurrected, then the wolves lose half a day, like normal. However, serial murderer killing of humans moves wolf victory up half a day with each death, whereas their victory moves wolf victory back by a full day. Thus, there is a good chance that we can let the wolves kill the serial murderer for us, since he poses a far greater threat to them than he does to us.

And that is all I have for now. Someone lemme know if I made a mistake somewhere.

[ddrdanc3r55]

Originally Posted by Tasselfoot

-2 less people to worry about being wolves

How can you be sure it's actually judas and saulus? I think a vision would be a bad idea to check to see if we have them on are side. Then again we do have to worry about them getting marked right away.

[Kefit]

A bit more:

If the Saulus reveals himself, then one might think that the wolves will not collude with him due to the danger of his being lynched, and thus lynching him will not have the same effect on pushing wolf autovictory back half a day that I came up with in my last post - indeed, it seems that lynching him would simply be a completely wasted lynching. The game would be extended an additional day by doing this (which is good, even if the wolves don't gain any additional lynchings that they need to survive, which would be the case here), but the lynch wouldn't seem to be as beneficial and attractive as I made it out to be before.

However, this is not quite right. If the Saulus reveals himself, then the wolves will collude with him on their day of autovictory under the collussion assumption made in my last post. At this point there is no chance for the Saulus to die, and no chance for him to tell the humans about the wolves, and so wolf autovictory is achieved, just as it would be before.

Thus, wolves WILL collude with the Saulus at some point, and he needs to lynched if he comes out.

[Tasselfoot]

ddrdanc3r... first off, get your terminology right. no visions... seerings.

second... nobody mentioned anywhere wasting a seering on whoever comes out. that would be ****ing retarded. we KNOW they come up human.

third... we know they are telling the truth because nobody else has(will) come out to say they are lying... because as I pointed out above, if someone fakes a Res role, the Res' team is the one who gets hurt by it... so the Res SHOULD never let the faker get away with it.

so, fourth... read the ****ing thread and stop being a god damn newb. i hate having to explain things more than once.

oh yea, fifth... why the **** would the wolves mark judas/saulus?!? again, see #1... god damn jTWG retard nonsense to seer one of them, therefore it would be stupid of the wolves to mark them.

[Tasselfoot]

on a happier note... Kefit, 1st flaw I see with your post is that there are only 16 players, not 18. Apart from that, it seems decent enough... my thoughts on Saulus were mostly that the wolves wouldn't risk going to him (except in the EoG situation you mentioned) for fear of him being lynched/SK'd. Therefore, he isn't that helpful. For the same reasoning, Judas (as you pointed out in more detail) shouldn't be attacked logically... wolves waste a wolfing and then the humans waste a lynching; it evens out. That was my thoughts behind having them both come out.

Also... what is up with Guido's post? I see it as him trying something new and different, especially for him. I'm just not sure in which direction to make it.

[Kefit]

16 players instead of 18 shouldn't really make a difference in any of my reasoning.

But to clarify, wolves have nothing concrete to gain by wolfing Judas unless they have already lost half a day through a guarding/resurrection. Of course, they could go for it early, to gain a half day padding on their victory condition.

But you are right, both sides will break even if both the Saulus and the Judas come out. The question is, does the Saulus now want to come out? His side now has a half day advantage that can be taken at almost any point, and the only way he can stay on his current side is by staying silent. However, staying silent means that no collusion is possible - wolves would be highly unlikely to believe a claim of being the Saulus if it is given on the wolf autovictory day. Thus, the Saulus can only help by trying to lynch people who he thinks aren't wolves, but he really doesn't have the power or information necessary to make this a worthwhile strategy. Furthermore, if the wolves don't know who the Saulus is, then they might wolf him, which would mean that any work the Saulus did before in getting humans lynched would come back to bite him in the ass.

That being the case, I think I will take this post to come out as the Saulus.

Let me make that a bit more clear.

I am the Saulus.

[FishFishRevolution]

Kefit: For the count of humans vs wolves it's wolves vs non-wolves, which means judas and saulus are always counted as humans no matter what. Which is why it is smart for both to come out.

[lightdarkness]

I swear I just made a post.... where did it go

[Afrobean]

Originally Posted by FishFishRevolution

Kefit: For the count of humans vs wolves it's wolves vs non-wolves, which means judas and saulus are always counted as humans no matter what. Which is why it is smart for both to come out.

It looks like they both did haha.

So, are we going to lynch whoever or whatever?

[Kefit]

I stated in my original post that the Saulus shouldn't come out unless he intends to be lynched.

I still stand by that.

However, I suggest letting some time pass, just in case someone feels like calling me a fake Saulus and declaring themselves as the real deal - I could always be the vampire trying to fake the Saulus, and I think that allowing ample time for response from everyone would be good for confirming me as the authentic Saulus.