TWG CLXXXV: C9+++++++++ Game Thread

[the sun fan]

roundbox (1)- MML
MML (1)- Antori
Antori (3)- roundbox, Haku, Gradiant
unvote- Shado, inD

[mellon_collie]

I'm still having trouble wrapping my mind around the mechanics stuff, sorry

but when I play how I normally play I think Antori is the best lynch anyway. His claim and defense of his claim have been weak, and having his flip should hopefully help clear up the situation and some of the confusion I'm having atm

[mellon_collie]

so yeah, declaring intent to vote for Antori I guess

Just don't wanna put it to close to insta if anyone still has stuff to add

[the sun fan]

wayward vagabond will be temp modding

please send night actions to me after phase end and not to him, should you have any

[inDheart]

Originally Posted by mellon_collie

I'm still having trouble wrapping my mind around the mechanics stuff, sorry

but when I play how I normally play I think Antori is the best lynch anyway. His claim and defense of his claim have been weak, and having his flip should hopefully help clear up the situation and some of the confusion I'm having atm

how can i help

i could try doing a runthrough fypov of the current game state

[roundbox]

Job interview went well, getting food and then I'll be on

[MixMasterLar]

I have a lack of time to really maw over every what ifs but since night actions are gonna tell us a lot anyway I'm going to reread everything doing night phase, see what the actions are and then go from there.

I think I feel good that Antori is the lynch we go for 100% of the time here and have nothing further to add to that.

Basically unless i'm wrong we just ride this phase out and see who all makes the other side, so I ain't even gonna fret rushing my day to make EoD.


But I will check in before so if you have questions ask now

[ShadoWolfe]

here thru EoD, got off work early and borrowed a laptop

gonna look at setup worlds again real quick and read up

hmu

[mellon_collie]

Originally Posted by inDheart

how can i help

i could try doing a runthrough fypov of the current game state

I don't even know what would help. When someone explains something specific to me I usually understand what it means but it's hard for me to piece everything together into a big picture, if that makes sense. I've been reading the last few pages of everyone's posts over and over and that has helped for now I think

So even without understanding 100% of everything, I feel like I understand enough and I think Antori's flip will give us the most information. After that is where I get a bit lost but I think it's worth it to me to not think too far ahead and think about that after the flip/night

[Daikyi]

i think it's less worth to think about what comes after because there's still too many possibilities to look into, and gaming from wolves etc.

[inDheart]

well the short term is like

start from assuming all the claims are true. in that setup, there are only 5 VTs, and 4 of them have already flipped. because you're VT, you know everyone else who said "VT" is lying and that's all the antitown right there

the issue with that is if you believe any of {me, daikyi, gradiant, shado} are town. we have no reason to lie about being VT if any one of us is town, so then in that case, someone who claimed a power role has to be lying

we also have no evidence to suggest the existence of a serial killer thus far. antori's role supposes that a serial killer exists because it puts us on an odd number of Ts. roundbox's role doesn't in the same way because his is the "first" B roll in the setup

daikyi talked a bit about a counter-argument to this: how would antori know to claim such a specific role, that depends on roundbox's role being in the game? this may be answered by either the wolves using their role cop on roundbox, or having the role cop blocked, thereby telling them a roleblocker exists

though, if you don't think that's a sufficient explanation for why to lynch antori, the question remains of what other claim to poke into, which is what antori is doing by voting mml

[ShadoWolfe]

One thing that sticks out to me that I haven't seen mentioned is that we're in MYLO right now if there's no SK.
If there is SK then... there's a lot going on there that I don't want to get into for reasons

I saw someone say "regardless of antori's alignment" but the fact is if Antori is town then we're a deep deep hole of doodoo

Also I want to believe a world where inD is town because I'm eating up what he's feeding me

[inDheart]

it's not mylo if no SK, we're at 9 (6v3), but it's lylo tomorrow if we miss

[inDheart]

thought experiment

the apparent setup if antori claims vt instead, and there are no fake claims, is CCCCBTT

2 cops
1 blocker
7x vt
1 wolf role cop
1 wolf godfather
1 wolf roleblocker

there would be 2 VTs other than myself alive, both have to be in the peek pool, the godfather is peeked, and antori and shado are wolves

so in that case i tell you to lynch the other two, then i'm clear, and we have two shots at hitting the godfather out of 3 players

yeah, i can see why antori would fake claim a role to add intrigue there, because those seem like horrible odds for wolves

[mellon_collie]

Originally Posted by inDheart

well the short term is like
......
though, if you don't think that's a sufficient explanation for why to lynch antori, the question remains of what other claim to poke into, which is what antori is doing by voting mml

ok this was super helpful, thank you. yeah I wouldn't have an argument against that, Antori is the best lynch still imo

[ShadoWolfe]

CCCCBTT = 2 cops, 1 roleblocker, !rolecop, !roleblocker, !godfather, 7 VT

4 VT flipped, 3 remaining


2 Full Cops:
MML
Hakulyte

Roleblocker:
Roundbox

VTs
Daikyi (seered green by Haku)
Gradiant (seered green by MML)
mellonxcollie (seered green by Haku)
inDheart
ShadoWolfe

Antori


Godfather has to be in Daikyi, Gradiant, Raeko
inD is always wolf
Antori is always wolf




there's some fuckery going on because it's hard to see wolf inD putting in all the work for town and offering up his wolf buddy as a lynch
I think one Haku/MML is lying

[ShadoWolfe]

roundbox is right, my numberwang was off, we're not in MYLO


If one in Haku/MML is lying and Antori is telling the truth

CCBBTTT = full cop, full roleblocker, oneshot roleblocker, !RoleCop + !Roleblocker + !Godfather, Serial Killer

Not liking worlds with serial killer

so if one in Haku/MML lying and Antori is also lying

CCBTTTT full cop, full roleblocker, 1-Shot Role Cop + Roleblocker + Godfather
Seems the most likely to me based on claims and believing inD.



I know this is mostly stuff that people have hashed out already, but I read all those posts with like 1000 grains of salt and needed to do it myself.

[ShadoWolfe]

CCBTTTT

cop, roleblocker, 3 scum
8 VT (4 dead, 4 alive)

Cop:
Haku
or <---One of these is a wolf
MML

Roleblocker:
Roundbox <---Glad I didn't lynch

VTs <---------one of these is a wolf
Daikyi (seered green by Haku)
Gradiant (seered green by MML)
mellonxcollie (seered green by Haku)
inDheart
ShadoWolfe

Antori is always a wolf


Also realized if inD is a wolf then wolves had to have only figured roundbox out last night because otherwise his EoD yesterday makes no sense why he'd lynch FFA over the roleblocker
Which makes me want to go back and check everyone else's reasonings behind following or not following my push

[Daikyi]

i think shadowolfe is next on the chopping block tbh

[Daikyi]

after examining the setup so much, not considering the fact that one of the un-seered players (shado/ind) could actually be the godfather and make our lives so easy makes me think he's actually playing with extra info