TWG 194 - Game Thread

[Duskfall]

yeah most like scum rn for me are haku and bolth after dbp

[Hakulyte]

Great, now I have to entertain DBP/ShadoWolfe/leetic.

[Hakulyte]

Prob not revisiting Duskfall until game is over because the guy seems to actually be upset by my play.

That helps clear FFA a bit too.

[flashflash account]

at this point I'm convinced it's just this running gag where leetic keeps voting me because they think I'll eventually be a wolf

[Hakulyte]

Originally Posted by flashflash account

at this point I'm convinced it's just this running gag where leetic keeps voting me because they think I'll eventually be a wolf

Would you be surprised if MML Godfather or you're pretty sure that's town almost every time ?

[Duskfall]

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

Prob not revisiting Duskfall until game is over because the guy seems to actually be upset by my play.

That helps clear FFA a bit too.

i am not upset but i will take the townread ty

[flashflash account]

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

Would you be surprised if MML Godfather or you're pretty sure that's town almost every time ?

it would be a more favorable conclusion for MML than them actually being this bullheaded

[Hakulyte]

Originally Posted by flashflash account

it would be a more favorable conclusion for MML than them actually being this bullheaded

I've seen MML both wolf and town read me at same time earlier in the game as if he didn't want to commit there because it sounded like a minefield.

Considering the Xiz case and how his game unfolded, I wonder if he's just tunnelling stuff on purpose.

[leetic]

Originally Posted by flashflash account

at this point I'm convinced it's just this running gag where leetic keeps voting me because they think I'll eventually be a wolf

I'm willing to take the 0.06% chance I'm wrong

[Hakulyte]

Originally Posted by leetic

I'm willing to take the 0.06% chance I'm wrong

I have trouble to take your 0.06% chance thing seriously.

[flashflash account]

Originally Posted by leetic

I'm willing to take the 0.06% chance I'm wrong

want to put something more tangible on these odds?

[Hakulyte]

0.06% chance is a reasonable amount when it comes to the odds of the setup.

It's not like a setup has 99.4% chance to appear and it's between those two.

It's some big number splitted between a ton of scenarios.

[Hakulyte]

The activity makes me sad for a game that's 2 hours from EoD.

[Duskfall]

leetic didnt do maths right btw given the info we know, assuming leetics claim is also correct the odds of there being exactly 3 Cs in the setup is actually

~5.25 percent

[Hakulyte]

The real joke is why you guys keep asking me to do setup things.

If anything, I'm usually the one that somehow get things wrong.

[Duskfall]

wait i also did my maths wrong i think its like 1 percent

[leetic]

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

0.06% chance is a reasonable amount when it comes to the odds of the setup.

It's not like a setup has 99.4% chance to appear and it's between those two.

It's some big number splitted between a ton of scenarios.

First of all, you're doing the math wrong, it's a 99.94% chance Mikey is lying.

Moreover, the only evidence Mikey has really brought up against DBP is his cop check. Mathematically speaking, it is much easier to believe DBP.

[leetic]

Originally Posted by Duskfall

wait i also did my maths wrong i think its like 1 percent

How are you doing it? For me it's (1/10)^3*(9/10)*4=about 0.00065

[ShadoWolfe]

Originally Posted by Duskfall

leetic didnt do maths right btw given the info we know, assuming leetics claim is also correct the odds of there being exactly 3 Cs in the setup is actually



~5.25 percent

You were quicker than me, but you're wrong too.

The binomial probability of rolling 3 Cs out of 7, where the chance of each C is 1/10, is roughly 2.296%

I cheated tho I used a calculator
https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx

[Duskfall]

Originally Posted by leetic

How are you doing it? For me it's (1/10)^3*(9/10)*4=about 0.00065

you arent accounting for the fact that

- we already know two of the letters so we are rolling for 2 things in a subset of 5

-we arent selecting in a set number, you are calculating the odds of a setup being rolled in an exact order, not being rolled at all