TWG XLV: Let's Play Danmaku Detective Game!

[StoicRoivaS]

@ Kefit: Hopefully anyone with half a brain has already considered this, but as someone pointed out (talisman?) it's less likely that someone like flaw is faking the role when compared to someone who's played a few more games, and mystery games at that. Now if I were to come out with that role, you'd better bet big that it's fake, but in the case of flaw, and the nature of what he claims, I'm putting it much closer to real than not. Not saying he's a bad player or anything, but I don't see him up and faking a role amid the list of big names playing.

P.S. Like I noted, the guard structure isn't a matter of random wolfings or not, my point was that the odds are identical between stacking and spreading, 5% either way. Yes, barely anything in TWG is truly "random" hence why I suggest we use logic and spread them where we deem appropriate.

P.P.S. ROFL at DBP and the mounds of people who don't get it.

[DiscoBobbyPARANOiA]

OH LORD NO PENGUIN

caps

[StoicRoivaS]

Sert, because he's not going to change his avatar.





















Wait, it's night, and I can't vote? ORLY?

[DiscoBobbyPARANOiA]

If only you knew how harsh I was on the jTWG people doing that crap.

[StoicRoivaS]

Boil'em, mash'em, stick'em in a stew?

[/end pointless posts]

[talisman]

an aside here, but it would be sweet if everyone saved their convos this game. if you don't log, then copypaste them into a notepad file or something. I think I might try hounding people for them earlier this game given what happened last time.

[MilfeulleSakuraba]

One final note about the illegal operation thing, since a couple of people have asked me about this.

The whole idea is that I will remove an illegally operating role if I find out someone else knows about it. Individuals coming to me in private is not the only way this is triggered; if MishaTheAngel has Role X, an illegal role, and posts in the thread saying "I am Role X" then I will remove her from the game because I will know other people know.

This means that if MTA posts "I am Role X" in the thread and I don't do anything about it, you can safely conclude that either Role X is not illegal or MTA is flat-out lying.

[Kefit]

I'm not familiar with Flaw as a player. In fact, I'm not familiar with most of you guys as players. I'm used to playing in games with Chardish and Tass and the like >_>

Anyway, time for some more thoughts on Flaw's supposed role:

Possibility one: Flaw is telling the truth. What is the best option for him at this point? Well, assuming he wins when humans win (and who says that he does!), the best option I can think of is to simply post the information in the thread. Remember people, humans win games by having as widespread of access to as much information as possible. This info might not do much for us now, but even if it is made available early it might still end up being of great importance late in the game.

The other two options I can think of are to simply do nothing with the information (likely not optimal), or to try and form an alliance with it. Alliancing is risky business. First off, your plan for forming an alliance (ie approaching those on your list and allying with those who don't repeat roles) assumes that the particular illegal role is on the side of the humans; I can think of several possible exceptions to this, such as the Prosecutor and Serial Killer roles that we have had in past games. You could potentially get three people back saying that they are human, or two saying that they are human and two saying that they are blue.

Possibility Two: Flaw could be a wolf, or maybe even an illegal faking this role. I don't know Flaw, so I don't have a good idea of how likely this is. However, the other wolves could easily have set this up for Flaw to do, so that isn't something I would want to consider much. There isn't much incentive not to fake roles in this game, so this is a very real possibility. Now if this role is faked, then forming an alliance is risky for everyone else, but good for the wolf. You see, there could be other blue roles in the game that have access to information that would let them know at some point if Flaw is lying or not. If Flaw keeps this information mostly to himself (say, to just a couple of people he forms an alliance with), then this risk is mostly mitigated for Flaw. However, if he posts the list publicly, then everyone knows about it, and it would be easier to catch him in a lie later on.

So my conclusion: Post your list. If you are a human, this provides the most information to everyone, which is better than a possible very weak alliance. Furthermore, if you are a wolf, then posting the list is the worst thing that you can do for yourself. But if you are who you say you are then you have no reason to worry about that, do you ;D

So post the list!

[StoicRoivaS]

Did you miss my suggestion earlier? Posting the list publicly has ne benefits over flaw approaching these people in private, and extrapolating the results to the thread. It does however, have the downside of the wolves knowing all 4 names, instead of 1. Assuming Flaw is legit, not faking, not a wolf, etc, etc, and assuming he get's a double hit (a lying wolf) he can bring those two names, and the wolves only gain the 1 name of the other person that is of the same role type as what the lying wolf claimed to be (run on sentence, makes sense, read twice plz). Where as in your plan, the wolves now have all 3 legit names, and thusly can hit them all with 2/3 blue accuracy. I'm not sure if I've played one or zero games with you, but my recolection tells me you're smarter than that. I have my eye (singular) on you.

[FishFishRevolution]

Originally Posted by Kefit

So post the list!

Bad idea. If he's lying, we're not losing anything until he starts accusing humans of being wolves. If he's telling the truth, wolves get a way bigger benefit from that list than anyone else will. I say he questions the four people on the list, and only if he can't determine who's lying, he posts the list. One wolf is just not worth giving up two blues.

[FictionJunction]

well, now that flaw has brought needless attention upon himself it is crucial for him to establish contact with the players in his list and avoid his death (come the case the wolves were to decide to kill him). Now that this occured lottery votes will actually make a difference in who gets wolfed tonight. The list should not be posted for the reasons previosuly stated. As much as I've advocated sacrificing a blue for the benefit of the humans before, it's not the smartest thing to do at this point in the game. Two blues are not worth losing for a wolf.

[pntballa18]

Originally Posted by FictionJunction

As much as I've advocated sacrificing a blue for the benefit of the humans before

=\

[Kefit]

The benefit of posting the list is that the information gets out there. What happens if Flaw dies tonight, and takes the information with him? Nothing. His power will have been wasted.

And the people that Flaw approaches have no concrete reason to trust him. If a blue tells him their role, they may end up just feeding themselves to the wolves.

And all the wolves get from this list is that one out of three people is a blue. But think about it for a sec; normal game odds generally make it so that yes, one out of every three or so non wolves is a blue! Thus, this really doesn't gain the wolves anything.

You guys are all approaching this from an angle that trusts Flaw too much. In this game especially, he could very easily be bull****ting this entire role. And if he is, then going along with him will **** us over. If this were another game, where the roles were known, then sure, we could be a lot more secure in going along with him. BUT IT ISN'T.

My plan is ultimately the safest thing to do, and gains all of us an immediate and definite advantage: information. This game is won by compiling together all of the information you can get. Let's start doing this now.

And yes, the lottery guard picking is meaningful now. I will post more about that when I get home.

[talisman]

No, it's 2/3 since illegals are blues as well, at least to the wolves.

[StoicRoivaS]

Exactly.

[JurseyRider734]

Flaw posts the list and he's a red:

Can't trust the list (most likely bull****)
If we end up deciding to trust the list and it's false (say he lists a wolf partner as blue/human), we're screwed.
We catch him if he says that someone who is found out to be a blue/human he lists as a red.

Flaw posts the list and he's a human:
We figure out a wolf.
We figure out a human.
We figure out a blue.
Flaw dies the next night.
One of the confirmed humans dies the next night. (unguarded)
The other one probably dies the next night. (unguarded)


I'd say IF flaw really is a human, he should go to the blue/human on his list. If he's bull****ting and they really aren't a blue/human, he'll be caught.

amirite

[FictionJunction]

BGM: Septette for the Dead Queen

[FictionJunction]

Originally Posted by JurseyRider734

I'd say IF flaw really is a human, he should go to the blue/human on his list. If he's bull****ting and they really aren't a blue/human, he'll be caught.

well, if Flaw knew what roles the people on his list were then he could. I don't think he knows who is what.. he just knows that in his list there's a blue, an illegal, a human, and a wolf.

[talisman]

that would be an insane role if kilga just told one person 4 people's roles at the beginning.

[StoicRoivaS]

Unless you have some confirmed knowlege of a blue role in this game that would immensely benefit from knowing Flaw's list, it's much much better not to post the names. I still don't see why'd you're advocating this.

Option A: Post the full list.

Result: Wolves immediately know 2 of the names are blue and the other is green. They wolf all 3 (or take their best guess as to who's who) and get 66% blue killing accuracy, or better. The red name is only in semi danger after the other 3 show up dead, unlikely for the wolves to directly do, but possible.

Option B: Flaw approachs the 4 people separately, and in private.

Result: 3 people tell flaw their role accurately (or at least which type they are, green/legal blue/illegal blue) and 1 person lies to flaw about which type he is. Assuming no conflict of information (aka lying humans) Flaw now has a great reason to trust 2 of the 4 names 100% and has a 50-50 shot of hitting a wolf from the other two names. Flaw can then bring the results to the thread (maybe worth it, maybe not, depends on if he wants our input on it or not) and we can try to figure out who is the legit role and who isn't. Or if you're a fan of the seer for wolf-faking-seer trade, we lynch them both and get a wolf for sure.

Please IM me later tonight or post about anything you're confused on. Like I said, unless you have some great reason to know otherwise, the thread as a whole does not need the 4 names. Please be clear, or expect to be lynched, because you're not making sense.