Werewolf Game - Postgame Analysis

Post your thoughts and analysis on the game here. Here's mine.

ANALYSIS: WHY THE HUMANS LOST, and why EACH INDIVIDUAL HUMAN DIED

This is a must-read if you plan on participating in game 2.
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On day one ImEric decides to practically show everyone his hand. LD casts a random round 1 vote (which is really the only kind of vote that can be cast in round 1) and ImEric, for reasons which continue to escape me, accuses him of being the seer, perhaps hoping that through some form of reverse psychology no one would believe he was the seer. I'm assuming he had in his mind this idea that no one would be expecting this game to be filled with lies and deceit (when in fact it is nothing but lies and deceit.) Thus, he had the idea that if he accused someone else of being the seer, no one would believe him to be the seer. That didn't work.

If someone is the seer, they should be trying to insinuate who the wolves are, not insinuating that the seer is someone else. What's the point? The wolves usually have a hard time figuring out who the seer is, but ImEric might as well have told the wolves he was the seer. It's common to refer to "the wolves" in the third person, but when you refer to "the seer" in the 3rd person in post #2 of the game without anything to go on, you're signing your own death wish. Remember, people, the seer is on the same side as the humans! None of the humans WANT the seer to die!

This gives Tasselfoot (a wolf) the opportunity to launch an attack against ImEric for his pointless accusations. With only 2 votes out there, and one completely baseless, most people who don't toss out random votes follow the only logical choice - they follow the "anyone but me!" mentality and off their own seer.

But then we see an interesting twist. ImEric decides to simply show everyone his hand and dare them to go against him - he tells everyone he's the seer. He even tells everyone the result of last night's seeing - LD is not a wolf. Some people just can't keep secrets, eh? Special secret hint - there are wolves pretending to be humans, and if they know you are the seer, they will kill you. Tassle, meanwhile, responds to this turn of events by being EXTREMELY open about his opposition to ImEric. So, naturally, LD changes his vote to Tasselfoot for starting the whole bandwagon and keeping it up despite lots of evidence against it.

Tip: At this point Tass should have given up his campaign against ImEric, claimed there was too much doubt to decide if he really was the seer or not, and picked another human to vote for. Remember, the humans want the seer to survive no matter what. If the seer is killed in round 1, it severely hurts the humans' chances. By opposing the only guy anyone thinks is the seer, Tass puts himself in a very bad position.

This puts the entire game on the tip of a sword. At this point, it boils down to the following things:
1) Is the guardian angel smart enough to protect the seer?
2) If so, are the wolves going to be stupid enough to attempt to wolf ImEric?
3) If so, when the humans find that he was protected by the guardian angel, are they going to be smart enough to figure out that Tass is a wolf?

If the answer is "yes" to all 3 of these questions, the humans gain a tremendous edge.

But no. Kilga recovers the ball for the werewolf team by offering a plausible justification for Tass' vote, which earlier seemed to be based only on stubbornness and paranoia. Tass is smart by not posting anymore - he (hopefully) understands that he's on the chopping block too, and everything he says against ImEric hurts his case. Moogy agrees, and pretty soon it's all over for ImEric - he's been properly passed off as a raving lunatic, desperately trying to save himself from the lynch. And so he gets lynched.

What we learn from Day 1 is the human population is a bunch of lemmings who have no idea who the werewolves are and no real impetus to think for themselves, so they go on casting random votes or bandwagon voting with the werewolves, who are the only people offering explanations as to why they're voting that way. Pathetic. If the humans keep this up, they're screwed.

End of day 1.
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Day2 and it's calm again - time for the wolves to start throwing people off the trail. Lightdarkness astutely catches on that the wolves are offing the smart people who will be able to figure this out. At this point, everyone in the game should be wondering - if the wolves are voting off the smart, why is Tasselfoot still around? Everyone on the Critical Thinking forum knows that Tass has an absurd amount of brainpower. Unfortunately, Squeek (guardian) doesn't really go for that line of thinking and instead votes for LD, choosing not to divulge his reasons.

LD won't stop talking, which points fingers towards him this round. The worst mistake he made is when Aleco (correctly) hypothesizes that the werewolves led them astray in voting for ImEric. LD says "How do you know that?" insinuating that they were justified in voting out their seer. LD says he is suspicious of Squeek, Tass, and Kilga, but no one seems to remember that it was Tass who started the bandwagon vote against ImEric, who it is becoming more and more clear was not a werewolf. LD continues to make the "talks-too-much" mistake and his incessant defending of his way of thinking brings more and more suspicion his way.

Then Aleco makes the same mistake. Aleco starts questioning people's voting methods, which is actually pretty fair because no one's telling anyone else why they're voting for who they're voting for, which makes finding the wolves all the more difficult. The wolves, meanwhile, are being smart and shutting up about it. So, naturally, no one suspects the people who aren't talking because they don't say anything the least bit suspicious, whereas the humans are doing just that and more. LD even goes so far as to vote out aleco because "he's acting like ImEric", who wasn't even a wolf in the first place. Ironic.

And the person who's made the more recent screwup is the person who will be called out on it. Aleco buys the farm. Just before all the votes are in, though, Qreepy manages to make a stupid comment about not liking Flypie.

End of day 2.
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So the wolves end the scheme of voting off the smartest (Flypie's smart, but she's not scheming and doesn't seem really into the game) by killing Flypie. Qreepy makes another stupid comment about being happy Flypie's gone. HUGE mistake. So now everyone assumes that obviously Qreepy's a wolf, because he didn't like Flypie and now Flypie's gone!

Think about it, humans. The wolves usually vote in a block, especially if it's a close vote and DEFINITELY if a wolf is on the chopping block. But it seems no one is thinking that the wolves are manipulating this behind the scenes, so everyone gets on these bandwagon kicks where they don't think for themselves. That's the reason the humans lost this game - none of them bothered to think for themselves the whole time.

Qreepy suddenly gets a rush of inspiration and decides it's wise to start thinking for himself, which practically ensures why he's going to get wolfed tonight if he isn't voted off. Even though he votes for LD, it's still a smart vote at this point, as LD's random witch-hunting and comments based solely on suspicion have managed to lynch two humans by now. Frankly, if I were in this game, I'd be suspicious of LD too.

But then Qreepy hops on the Kenzya bandwagon for reasons which I do not fully understand, but this is the first time the humans have come close to nabbing a wolf, if only by random chance. However, LD's random vote-swapping and the fact that Qreepy didn't explain his reasoning doesn't help the humans one bit. Since LD and Qreepy were the 2 primary targets before the vote-swapping began, I can understand the suspicion in thinking they're wolves. This "reasons I will not yet disclose" BS has got to stop if you want to actually start convincing people, humans. So LD does the smart thing and declares some reasons for picking Kenzya, and people start following along like sheep. Good LD. You picked a wolf, though it was mainly just to save your own butt and I don't even think you realized you got one. But there's a problem. LD is acting REALLY suspicious, and Kenzya really isn't. So when Kenzya votes LD and Tass switches to LD simply to prevent a knife-in-box tie scenario, it's curtains for Lightdarkness.

End of day 3.
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Basically at this point people are assuming their wolf-finding techniques are impeccable and are killing people based on whether or not they voted for other pst lynchees (none of whom are wolves.) SleeplessDragn made a really incoherent post so everyone assumes he's a wolf. JUST BECAUSE YOU'RE BAD AT EXPLAINING YOUR REASONING DOESN'T MEAN YOU'RE A WOLF. THINK for a second. Would someone who's a wolf come up with such a stupid reason to vote for somebody? Or would they hang back and bandwagon it?

Garr. You people upset me. This game is pretty unsavable at this point. The only remaining humans are the sheep, the people that have been bandwagoning practically every vote and will be quite happy to continue bandwagoning and lose the game. One possible strategy would be to look back and hypothesize who wasn't a wolf who you lynched, based on new evidence. But alas, no one thinks of that.

But here's the kicker. Everyone but Sleepless is voting for Sleepless! Assuming wolves never vote for each other, the only way this could happen is if Sleepless is the last wolf. And NO ONE seems confident of that.

End of day 4.
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It's over by now, the humans have completely lost it by not thinking for themselves. Because this idea of bandwagon voting has been fostered, no wants to speak up for fear of getting voted off. Moogy votes Tasselfoot without explanation, and Tass and Kilga vote Moogy, explaining their reasoning. With 2 people voting for Moogy, 2 more hop on the bandwagon. Moogy's doomed.

So, you lost cause you didn't think for yourselves and you always assumed the majority was right.

SIGNUPS FOR GAME 2 WILL BE OPENED LATE MONDAY NIGHT. Posting in this thread that you want a slot in Game 2 does not get you anything.

[QreepyBORIS]

I forgot why I voted Kenzya, ahaha....

but I did worm my way out of a pretty dire situation, even if it was not my worming that saved me.

Yey!

[flypie743]

So the wolves end the scheme of voting off the smartest (Flypie's smart, but she's not scheming and doesn't seem really into the game)

I think you mean not a frequent CT goer I am a brilliant person.

The reason I didn't want to seem "into the game" was because of how people who were seeming really into the game were getting voted off.

[QreepyBORIS]

Well, didn't seem to help you too much, eh? :P

[Squeek]

My mistakes:

As Guardian, I didn't protect anyone. Sorry. It's harder than it looks. I only protected a wolf on the very first night, however.

As a busy individual, I missed a vote and a guardianing. Serves me right for having a social life.

As a super-intelligent and ultimately awesome being, I overcalculated EVERYTHING. HOWEVER. I never voted ANYBODY off. I wasn't in the majority on any votings. Sure, I didn't vote for the bad guys either, but I didn't participate in the majority votings.

General Tip - Argh. People, STOP ACTING SUSPICIOUS. DO THINGS NORMALLY. BE NORMAL.

That's the reason I never got to Kilga. Kilga doesn't post often and when he does it's short and to the point. The game was all of that for him. I never suspected Kenzya because he doesn't often do much of anything, just like in the thread. However, I had an inkling toward Tass from Day 2. If other people didn't start acting suspicious, I might've made a smarter decision and pressed votes onto him.

~Squeek

PS - It really sucks being the Guardian. People expect you to do something and the odds are completely against you.

[lightdarkness]

My mistakes:

Typing.

Also, not explaining your reasons for voting doesn't help you one bit. Explaining your reasons gets people to go along with you and shows you're not being phony. Not explaining your reasons makes people think you're acting randomly.

[QreepyBORIS]

Not explaining my reasons made me not die, pshhhh.

It also lost you the game.

Speaking of which, here are the victory certificates for the winners. Proudly wear them in your sigs.

[QreepyBORIS]

Do I get a "SO CLOSE!" Certificate, for not dying?

[Kilgamayan]

LD, you have no idea how hard I was laughing when you were giving me your Day 3 guilt trip.

No, because as I made quite clear, you lost.

[QreepyBORIS]

Well, I'll have to make one myself then, you fucker.

Originally Posted by Kilgamayan

LD, you have no idea how hard I was laughing when you were giving me your Day 3 guilt trip.

For the uninitiated:

(00:11:53) Kilgamayan: MAN LD GAVE ME THE WORST GUILT TRIP OMFG :(
(00:11:59) Chardish: ?
(00:12:05) Kilgamayan: He said he'd make me a site admin if I voted Kenzya
(00:13:18) Chardish: quote plz
(00:14:34) Kilgamayan: lightdarkness42lightdarkness42: I'll add you to the staff usergroup if i'm a wolf.
bjstrattonIMbjstrattonIM: <_<
bjstrattonIMbjstrattonIM: I'd get in trouble if that happened.
lightdarkness42lightdarkness42: ?
lightdarkness42lightdarkness42: That's the thing
lightdarkness42lightdarkness42: it won't happen
lightdarkness42lightdarkness42: cause i'm a human.
lightdarkness42lightdarkness42: Site admin for christs sake

[Kilgamayan]

Oh, and my thanks to Eric for making this a lot easier than it should have been.

EDIT: The above exerpt is only a tiny part of the whole convo. Sadly, I closed his window earlier today without thinking.

[Tasselfoot]

me too kilga, me too. i did really feel bad, because LD was taking it SO seriously... but, its a kill or be killed game, and you really were too open about everything LD.

my take on the game... fairly accurate with what chardish said of me in the analysis. i jumped right on Eric off the bat, and i should have hung back more after that, but i was really bored that day and wanted to do something. so, i nearly got myself killed off the bat. after that... i talked much much less. but, i was successful in getting Eric killed in day 1.

also... seriously humans... this is what i noticed more than anything... IF SOMEONE IS ACTING SUSPICIOUS EARLY IN THE GAME, THEY ARE HUMAN. its the humans that have to be suspicious of everyone, because they don't know who the wolves are. we wolves knew who each other were and were working together the entire game. read back over the game. i most certainly should have been killed on day 1 or 2, from pushing the Eric thing too much.

Also, kenzya should have been dead the day after LD died, if not on the day LD died. all night long LD was hounding me to change my vote to kenzya, but i didn't, and gave him absolutely nothing for a decent reason why. but, he never said anything about that here. what i did see is that if i kept my vote with qreepy, it would be a 50/50 between kenzya and LD, so naturally i switched my vote to LD, and have NO REASON FOR IT! if that isn't an amazing clue that i'm trying to protect kenzya, i don't know what is.

anyway, i look forward to playing again in WG2, and i'm even getting my woman to join up. but fear not, we shant be sharing anything unless we are both wolfies.

lastly... jay man... please lighten up next game. the stuff you were saying over AIM was really not cool. its just a game.

edit: after reading kilga's post..... jay was saying the same stuff to me. its just a game jay. remember that... and, you really should have figured kilga and i for wolves after everything you said and we still had nothing to say in return. you were making me feel real guilty as well.

[The_Q]

Ok, analysis complete. Let's start the next one so I can actually PLAY this time. It sucked. So bad. Then again, I'm honored the wolves feared my intellect over all the others enough to kill me first. Thanks, Tass, Kilga, etc. You rock! Let me get into at least 3 rounds next time!

Q

[Kenzya]

LD messaged me on AIM too. I was the deciding vote that day afterall. : )

But seriously, way too easy. But you have to stop hammering everyone, it was their first game.

Looking forward to another game.

[lightdarkness]

After talking to you guys on aim, I kinda figured you guys were wolves, just kilga and Tass, I didn't realize Kenzya til later...

And, that was kinda the point of making you feel guilty, what else did I have to go on?

I will most certain play the second game smarter. And because the majority of the game will take place during the week, I won't be on the boards AS much.

[Kilgamayan]

Yeah, well, I was all set to block you before you gave up because at that point you were just annoying.