Old 07-14-2021, 09:54 AM   #41
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Default Re: 14th Official Tournament Predictions Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by WirryWoo View Post
A lot of swaps and changes since start of tournament. Here are the updated predictions (newest people color-coded in green)! Will be posting after each round
Still no aperson in D6, you fool!
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Old 07-14-2021, 10:06 AM   #42
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Default Re: 14th Official Tournament Predictions Thread

I was shocked to be originally in the top 8 algorithm. Even more shocked when you updated it and it moved me to top 6.

I was in D4 for 13 and 13.5, but I was placed in D3 this time. So I guess we will see.
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Old 07-14-2021, 11:44 AM   #43
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Default Re: 14th Official Tournament Predictions Thread

Kinda scary playing against previous D4 players in D3 when I just got here myself from D2. Lucky I got a great score early on this round cause I wasn’t sure I could be competitive.
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Old 07-14-2021, 11:47 AM   #44
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Default Re: 14th Official Tournament Predictions Thread

The fact that I'm considered as top 8 by your algorithm shows that there's missing data in D8 lmao
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Old 07-14-2021, 07:08 PM   #45
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Default Re: 14th Official Tournament Predictions Thread

I'm gonna sleeper all over this tourney kekeke
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Old 07-14-2021, 07:40 PM   #46
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Default Re: 14th Official Tournament Predictions Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by WirryWoo View Post
A lot of swaps and changes since start of tournament. Here are the updated predictions (newest people color-coded in green)! Will be posting after each round


Top 8 of Division 3:
Viisbyxa
exchro
kiba1000
tmgCryptX
anrai
csoup1414
123kappa3
Kawaii025

That would be amazins.
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Old 07-14-2021, 08:08 PM   #47
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Default Re: 14th Official Tournament Predictions Thread

I mean, are the predictions just "The people who AAA'd round 1 are likely to do well"?
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Old 07-14-2021, 08:23 PM   #48
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Default Re: 14th Official Tournament Predictions Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by sff_writer_dan View Post
Still no aperson in D6, you fool!
Yo aperson, play more FFR

Quote:
Originally Posted by csoup1414 View Post
I was shocked to be originally in the top 8 algorithm. Even more shocked when you updated it and it moved me to top 6.

I was in D4 for 13 and 13.5, but I was placed in D3 this time. So I guess we will see.
The update to D3 was mainly caused by the inactivity of two of the projected winners in D3. It moved you up two places

Quote:
Originally Posted by xXOpkillerXx View Post
The fact that I'm considered as top 8 by your algorithm shows that there's missing data in D8 lmao
So true. Limited data is the biggest flaw in the overall approach and unfortunately this is more frequent during OT times haha.

Quote:
Originally Posted by sff_writer_dan View Post
I mean, are the predictions just "The people who AAA'd round 1 are likely to do well"?
Nope, predictions are made based on the user's Top 100 scores. Any significant improvement there will bump the players up in the overall rated projections.

Again, these are only predictions. Don't take these predictions as gospel because anything can happen in the OT. rayword42 can skillboost to his doppelganger ULTIMEGA. choof can hurt himself again and get his cast put back on. Brasegali can skillboost to D8. Anything goes.

Myself, my gaming gear is in my apartment and I have to be in NYC with family to run important errands for a good while. I don't expect myself to get Top 8 this tourney even though my scripts are saying otherwise.
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Old 07-14-2021, 08:59 PM   #49
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Default Re: 14th Official Tournament Predictions Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by WirryWoo View Post
Yo aperson, play more FFR
The best way to improve at FFR is to play Etterna did your algorithm think about that
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Old 07-14-2021, 09:08 PM   #50
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Default Re: 14th Official Tournament Predictions Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by WirryWoo View Post
rayword42 can skillboost to his doppelganger ULTIMEGA.
you are a mean person
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Old 07-14-2021, 09:44 PM   #51
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Default Re: 14th Official Tournament Predictions Thread

My Predictions for Top 3!!!: (Left 1st middle 2nd right 3rd)

D1: Fireo, The_Popo, sff_writer_dan
D2: TopeDogeWOW, HBar, Demonader
D3: Logman6656, _DJ Vinyl_, anrai
D4: Jonlovesddr, emulord, katanaeyegaming
D5: _Fluttershy_, Brasegali, axith
D6: Dark Saga, aperson, spongebobismysenpai
D7: Devilchilly, Cryolien, Josemba
D8: Matthia, AnMaO, Elah
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Old 07-16-2021, 02:20 AM   #52
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Default Re: 14th Official Tournament Predictions Thread

Decided to see who could get the win based on the highest cumulative total while I was at it, because I tried it out in 13.5 and it was pretty accurate, so this is what I got for round 1 (it gets more accurate I'd say the further in it goes).

Predictions:

Top 8 of Division 1 (Top 4 in no order):
1. Fireo
sff_writer_dan
Telnaior
Zeldagurlfan1
5. diddleysquin
6. The_Popo
7. Frans813
8. SwedishMeatballs


Potential Top 8 of Division 2 (In no order):
1. awesomebox
beamswordsman
chuckman
Deathserpent2
Demonader
HBar
miiklo
NapalmDaDon
popo55
Puzzler64
Rukairi
TopeDogeWOW
x_egeltje_x


Potential Top 8 of Division 3 (In no order):
1. 123kappa3
4key
csoup1414
exchro
Kawaii025
KillerScythe0
Killuala
Logman6656
oOL3G1TxG4M3ROo
reedkmeister
rsr2
ScienceCrafter
SC_coolguy44
sonic10110
TheLegendofPie
themastergrant
tmgCryptX
Toxicity783
_DJ Vinyl_


Potential Top 8 of Division 4 (In no order):
1. Bok-XN
Doughdough
JibsterGamez
JonlovesDDR
stepman5
Twisue
uzzbuzz
Zlyice
_PhoenixFire_


Top 8 of Division 5 (In no order):
1. 3lijah
axith
Defluxit
MarcusHawkins
Phynx
Psycast
Seoulslayer
XJ-9


Top 8 of Division 6 (Top 7 in no order):
1. aperson
choof
MyNameIsNothing
Nikita3006
Novelties
radioamor
remedy1502
8. Snupeh


Top 8 of Division 7:
1. Naheeno
2. CallMeMessyy
3. Thasyka
4. Eryyy
5. mi40
6. BigHayden1
7. _Zenith_
8. Cryolien


Potential Top 8 of Division 8 (In no order):
1. AnMaO
Elah
Eliminate294
Hanatachi
Matthia
SoFast
XtraFestive
XxNewson1234xX
Zoobin4
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Old 07-16-2021, 08:36 AM   #53
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Default Re: 14th Official Tournament Predictions Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by WirryWoo View Post
choof can hurt himself again and get his cast put back on.
pls do not jinx me lmao being in a cast was depressing
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Old 07-16-2021, 10:10 AM   #54
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Default Re: 14th Official Tournament Predictions Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by aperson View Post
The best way to improve at FFR is to play Etterna did your algorithm think about that
No. That would assume having a reliable mapping to point usernames on FFR to Etterna and translating the languages between Etterna's MSD and FFR's skill rating. Both are nearly impossible to do automatically.

Quote:
Originally Posted by FlynnMac View Post
Decided to see who could get the win based on the highest cumulative total while I was at it, because I tried it out in 13.5 and it was pretty accurate, so this is what I got for round 1 (it gets more accurate I'd say the further in it goes).

Predictions:

Top 8 of Division 1 (Top 4 in no order):
1. Fireo
sff_writer_dan
Telnaior
Zeldagurlfan1
5. diddleysquin
6. The_Popo
7. Frans813
8. SwedishMeatballs


Potential Top 8 of Division 2 (In no order):
1. awesomebox
beamswordsman
chuckman
Deathserpent2
Demonader
HBar
miiklo
NapalmDaDon
popo55
Puzzler64
Rukairi
TopeDogeWOW
x_egeltje_x


Potential Top 8 of Division 3 (In no order):
1. 123kappa3
4key
csoup1414
exchro
Kawaii025
KillerScythe0
Killuala
Logman6656
oOL3G1TxG4M3ROo
reedkmeister
rsr2
ScienceCrafter
SC_coolguy44
sonic10110
TheLegendofPie
themastergrant
tmgCryptX
Toxicity783
_DJ Vinyl_


Potential Top 8 of Division 4 (In no order):
1. Bok-XN
Doughdough
JibsterGamez
JonlovesDDR
stepman5
Twisue
uzzbuzz
Zlyice
_PhoenixFire_


Top 8 of Division 5 (In no order):
1. 3lijah
axith
Defluxit
MarcusHawkins
Phynx
Psycast
Seoulslayer
XJ-9


Top 8 of Division 6 (Top 7 in no order):
1. aperson
choof
MyNameIsNothing
Nikita3006
Novelties
radioamor
remedy1502
8. Snupeh


Top 8 of Division 7:
1. Naheeno
2. CallMeMessyy
3. Thasyka
4. Eryyy
5. mi40
6. BigHayden1
7. _Zenith_
8. Cryolien


Potential Top 8 of Division 8 (In no order):
1. AnMaO
Elah
Eliminate294
Hanatachi
Matthia
SoFast
XtraFestive
XxNewson1234xX
Zoobin4
Thanks for compiling this list. An interesting idea would be to combine the two ratings together. Something like:

Before Tournament Start: 100% Skill Rating, 0% Tournament Performance
After Round 1: 87.5% Skill Rating, 12.5% Tournament Performance
After Round 2: 75% Skill Rating, 25% Tournament Performance
After Round 3: 62.5% Skill Rating, 37.5% Tournament Performance
After Round 4: 50% Skill Rating, 50% Tournament Performance
After Round 5: 37.5% Skill Rating, 62.5% Tournament Performance
After Round 6: 25% Skill Rating, 75% Tournament Performance
After Round 7: 12.5% Skill Rating, 87.5% Tournament Performance
After Tournament End: 0% Skill Rating, 100% Tournament Performance (winners are known at this point)

It's not hard to standardize all the values to a scale between 0 and 1 in both Skill rating and Tournament Performance metrics and for each case, this would measure the "percentile of how you compare against everyone else in your division", so it also makes sense.

I can generate that list too if there's enough interest.
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Old 07-16-2021, 10:42 AM   #55
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Default Re: 14th Official Tournament Predictions Thread

idk wtf is going on but keep hitting buttons on those keybaords, ugot this
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Old 07-16-2021, 01:23 PM   #56
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Default Re: 14th Official Tournament Predictions Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by WirryWoo View Post
No. That would assume having a reliable mapping to point usernames on FFR to Etterna and translating the languages between Etterna's MSD and FFR's skill rating. Both are nearly impossible to do automatically.



Thanks for compiling this list. An interesting idea would be to combine the two ratings together. Something like:

Before Tournament Start: 100% Skill Rating, 0% Tournament Performance
After Round 1: 87.5% Skill Rating, 12.5% Tournament Performance
After Round 2: 75% Skill Rating, 25% Tournament Performance
After Round 3: 62.5% Skill Rating, 37.5% Tournament Performance
After Round 4: 50% Skill Rating, 50% Tournament Performance
After Round 5: 37.5% Skill Rating, 62.5% Tournament Performance
After Round 6: 25% Skill Rating, 75% Tournament Performance
After Round 7: 12.5% Skill Rating, 87.5% Tournament Performance
After Tournament End: 0% Skill Rating, 100% Tournament Performance (winners are known at this point)

It's not hard to standardize all the values to a scale between 0 and 1 in both Skill rating and Tournament Performance metrics and for each case, this would measure the "percentile of how you compare against everyone else in your division", so it also makes sense.

I can generate that list too if there's enough interest.

You guys know you can see who is winning by looking at the names on the dashboard right?
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Old 07-16-2021, 03:08 PM   #57
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Default Re: 14th Official Tournament Predictions Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by sff_writer_dan View Post
You guys know you can see who is winning by looking at the names on the dashboard right?
the thread title is predictions, not current placements
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Old 07-16-2021, 04:12 PM   #58
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Default Re: 14th Official Tournament Predictions Thread

Quote:
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the thread title is predictions, not current placements
Well yes I know that, thank you.
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Old 07-16-2021, 04:27 PM   #59
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Default Re: 14th Official Tournament Predictions Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by sff_writer_dan View Post
You guys know you can see who is winning by looking at the names on the dashboard right?
Well yes I know that, thank you.
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Old 07-16-2021, 04:29 PM   #60
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Default Re: 14th Official Tournament Predictions Thread

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Well yes I know that, thank you.
Well yes I know that, thank you.
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