TWG LXXXV: Blood Alliance

[Temote]

Blood Alliance

17 players

The worlds of Mafia and The Werewolf Game collide!

2 Werewolves - At night, the werewolves choose one human to satisfy their hunger. The mafia's been moving in on their food, so they're the top targets. They win when the Mafia is dead and they equal or outnumber the humans.

2 Mafia - It started out like just a normal job for the Mafia. They got a hitlist, a location, and the tools of the trade, but when they discover that there are werewolves in their midst, things get interesting. They win when the Werewolves are dead and they equal or outnumber the humans.

1 Seer - Can tell who is cursed by the mark of the beast, but cannot delve into personal connections. Investigates one person a night, but can only detect Werewolves.

1 Detective - A cop who can easily find sings of criminal activity, but is untrained in the occult. Investigates one person a night, but can only detect Mafia.

1 Psychic - Can detect the presence of werewolves, but is unskilled at mind-reading. Is told the number of Werewolves every night.

1 Coroner - Can examine the bodies of the dead and see if they are a Mafia member, but has no knowledge of the signs of lycanthropy. Is told the number of Mafia every night.

1 Guardian - Regular guard, with a bit of a dilemma.

8 Civilians - Humans. Win when both Werewolves and Mafia are dead.

Players:
1. Spyke_MH (spykeslash)
2. Bolth_mannn (bolthmannn)
3. tupacodaman (tupacodaman)
4. Gun92 (james92hofmann)
5. emerald000 (emerald3x0)
6. RedHerring (falseclues)
7. AC1speakerbox (AC1colossus)
8. sc979 (sam97379)
9. RawrInc (jsrf326)
10. Viccica (MMViccica)
11. flawofhumanity (redrumfortherich)
12. argo15 (Argo1516)
13. Ruritsu (Ruritsu)
14. GamerShadow (TwilightxShade)
15. iluswirl (iluswirl)
16. rzr (astickytree)
17. Brilliant Dynamite Neon (MegamnGTX)

Cardflipping: Off
Night talking: On

PMs going out in a bit.

[AC1speakerbox]

Yes! Lets do this!

[Temote]

Alright then, PMs are now out. If you didn't get one, send me a message.

Night one has begun. It will end at 11 P.M. CST on Tuesday! (by request, Night will not end early)

Human PM:

Human

Live through the days while lynching the Mafia and outing the Wolves.

Good Luck.

[flawofhumanity]

Alright, I've been talking this game through my head for a while now, and I think I know how we can win the game.

Our 2 seers need to act as one. If they each seer someone separately, we will fail because we won't exonerate anyone from being a wolf/mafia. If they both seer the same person, that person becomes "confirmed" because there is no master wolf/mafia. Because of this, both seers should seer the same person tonight, and the guard should guard that person. Of course, this gives the wolves/mafia 2 free kills, but as long as no one is stupid and gives out their role we have a decent chance of losing only greens.

Now once we decide on a person to guard/seer the seers will confirm that their seer is green by NOT saying anything. This means that our seers MUST BE active and they MUST do as we say. We also have to have 100% accountability with everyone agreeing to follow the plan. If the person comes out as mafia/werewolf, they should come out and state such so that we can lynch them. The wolves/mafia will not trade themselves by counterclaiming because at that point they put themselves down to only 1 person. If they do, we will lynch both in what I consider a good trade for us.

At this point, if the person is human - we will have all blues come out to them and form an alliance based on that. If any roles are claimed twice, we will lynch both, again in a good trade off.

The psychic and coroner should immediately come out once their object is eliminated, regardless of whether or not we successfully set up an alliance. This is because your role is useless once the wolves/mafia are dead except to inform of us such. After that, you are a basic human. Again, if someone comes out with false information and you are the actual psychic/coroner, let us know so that we can act on that information, lynch you both, and make yet another good trade.

The rest of us should simply chat with others and try and figure out who is a wolf/mafia so that we can make seer suggestions, since those will be public decisions due to the necessity of both seers seering the same person. To make sure the wolves/mafia do not have too much influence, we must not let any one person have too much say in who it is. As such, I think we should have our own vote on who to seer during the night.

I think this strategy gives us our best chance of winning, otherwise we take a huge risk of being unorganized and running ourselves into the ground taking 2 hits per night. If anyone has a different opinion or better strategy, please post it.

[Brilliant Dynamite Neon]

What's up, dawgs?

Just checking in. I won't have time to play today. I'll read everything and catch up tomorrow.

[Spyke_MH]

I'm thinking one seer or psychic should come out to the thread, and once we are sure of no counterclaims the rest of the specials should try to team up with them as necessary. It might make it easier to get results without having all our people coming out to the thread and the guard can protect the one who did come out.

[AC1speakerbox]

Going along with flaw's plan, we should probably seer a veteran n1.
This would allow for the best decision-making among the alliance.

[iluswirl]

Ugh. I beat the goddamned odds again. 8/17 and I still manage to get it.

Well whatever. Unobligatory human post.

[Viccica]

Human post, etc, etc.


As for seering a vet... I'd say flaw for the first shot. Since you haven't come out as any specific role, that makes you regular human, mafia or wolf. If you're mafia or wolf, we get a good find right from the start, if you're human, we get a decent human to form an alliance around.

y/n?

[Ruritsu]

Iluswirl: 8/17? Your math is clearly wrong, all players are human didn't you know?

Also, I too like Flaw's plan, as I only see it failing under some extreamly poor luck...

As for a target, I don't know, and will think it over, you can find me on AIM if you need to chat, and I'll have this page open all day...

[emerald000]

Originally Posted by Viccica

As for seering a vet... I'd say flaw for the first shot. Since you haven't come out as any specific role, that makes you regular human, mafia or wolf. If you're mafia or wolf, we get a good find right from the start, if you're human, we get a decent human to form an alliance around.

Yeah, I think that's a good idea. It is not like we had much to go on anyway.

[flawofhumanity]

Originally Posted by Viccica

Human post, etc, etc.


As for seering a vet... I'd say flaw for the first shot. Since you haven't come out as any specific role, that makes you regular human, mafia or wolf. If you're mafia or wolf, we get a good find right from the start, if you're human, we get a decent human to form an alliance around.

y/n?

Yes, I am fine with that. One of the only better targets (hello ego!) I can think of is if a seer came out and had no counterclaims, at that point we would be protecting a seer via guard while setting up the alliance. That does come with risks though, whereas with me we risk less. Again, we do need to have everyone's input to keep wolves/mafia from steering who we seer too much.

[sc979]

Yeah, I've been thinking about the plan, and thought it was fine at first, but there is a flaw. If the seering target is a wolf/mafia and the respective seer against that team happens to die night 1, then they wouldn't be alive to say anything, and we'd then have all the blues/purples come out to them and give them the game.

[sc979]

(ninja'd)

I am the detective

[sc979]

well, yeah, the chances of what I said happening are low, but if it does happen, humans have no shot of winning; the target will claim that their teammate is the seer

[flawofhumanity]

Alright, due to this development, the guard now has to guard sc979. We don't have a choice, unless there is a counter-claim. If there is a counterclaim, we will kill both of them. As far as seering goes, we may still choose to seer me if you guys wish, but on the other side, it's likely that I will be killed, knowing that the guard is on sc979. Because of this, we should vote TO sc979 and not in public who should be seered and then once the other seer comes out to him (IF AND ONLY IF THERE ARE NO COUNTERCLAIMS - DO NOT JUMP THE GUN AND GIVE THIS GUY YOUR ROLES.) sc979 can tell him discreetly, resulting in the seer being known only between the seers and within the alliance of confirmed humans.

As for your last post sc979, the chances of that happening is likely zero. The partner then puts himself in the limelight and at risk, which puts their chance of losing the game when we realize this and giving the game to the opposing first at near 100%. You have to remember, those two opposing forces are playing not only against us, but against each other.

[sc979]

Originally Posted by flawofhumanity

As for your last post sc979, the chances of that happening is likely zero. The partner then puts himself in the limelight and at risk, which puts their chance of losing the game when we realize this and giving the game to the opposing first at near 100%. You have to remember, those two opposing forces are playing not only against us, but against each other.

If the target is publically known, and it happens to be wolf/mafia, they would know that the seer against them died once the blues start coming out to them, so it wouldn't be that much of a risk to fake the claim. They can then kill off the psychic against them and start making some calls against people.

[flawofhumanity]

Originally Posted by sc979

If the target is publically known, and it happens to be wolf/mafia, they would know that the seer against them died once the blues start coming out to them, so it wouldn't be that much of a risk to fake the claim. They can then kill off the psychic against them and start making some calls against people.

You misunderstood what I was saying. For them to know that they can come out as the seer, they have to know for a fact that the seer is dead, or else they risk their entire team being killed by process of elimination (which is part of my strategy). The blues won't come out to anybody now, however, until we have allowed time for you to be counterclaimed, so it is a non issue. If you are not counterclaimed, we can trust you and move on with our original plan.

[AC1speakerbox]

I think that we can trust sc.
Just like Flaw said, the two opposing forces are also playing against each other. A wolf or mafia claiming blue this early would be nothing short of idiotic because it would leave his/her partner alone. I honestly don't think we should waste a seer on sc.

[flawofhumanity]

Originally Posted by AC1speakerbox

I think that we can trust sc.
Just like Flaw said, the two opposing forces are also playing against each other. A wolf or mafia claiming blue this early would be nothing short of idiotic because it would leave his/her partner alone. I honestly don't think we should waste a seer on sc.

A seer on sc is completely, 100% useless. A seer should be on another player, considering that sc will be counterclaimed if he is not who he says he is. Effectively, by us being active we seer him without wasting a seer.

Also, in light of this, it would be very beneficial for all of us to state that we are NOT the detective so that we can mark it off for the possibility of counterclaims. If we do this, it will be effective in finding out if anyone who MAY be the detective is not speaking up because of inactivity.