Imagine There's A Gamble Where

[top]

too many maths and overthinking


oh wait i'm on ffr. nvm

[justin_ator]

Considering the only things I have right now are my cash value and my computers essentially (living in campus dorms, eating meal plan... can I lose those in this??) I think I'd be a little more willing to go for something like this than a number of people. I bet a homeless guy on the side of the road would take you up on the offer pretty quick

edit: In relation to "how low could the percentage go before you lost confidence that you'd win?" I'd have to say around 90% or so regardless of the value of winning / cost of losing for me... after that point I'd just be pretty darn uncertain, and more-so the lower it went.

[Netjet!]

Originally Posted by leonid

Why do people always overthink my questions
is it because my avatar is a robot

yes

[qqwref]

Originally Posted by leonid

is it because my avatar is a robot

honestly this probably doesn't help people imagine you as a normal person

I feel like a utility calculation (like ilikexd's post) is a good idea in theory, and would be quite reasonable for someone who could easily start over from nothing, even if it might be a hassle for them to do so. Personally, the probability I'd want obeys something like Hofstadter's law - I'll always want less risk than what the calculation says, even if the calculation takes this into account.

[Hakulyte]

I could dare a 75% considering I haven't got anything that's particularly high in value. At same time, it's not even worth trying. Yolo~

[Pseudo Enigma]

I don't really have anything I couldn't get back so the lowest might be something like 50-66%. I like to live dangerously. :]

[firemon22]

leonid what you smokin bro

[A2P]

Originally Posted by Choofers

I'm a Las Vegas native.

I know what gambling does to people, leonid.

and to have you make light of it just makes me sick.

gambling's alright if you're smart about it (e.g., knowing your odds and not blowing money on roulette or keno)

[Cavernio]

Originally Posted by leonid

This game is the kind where you MUST win at any cost.

The question asks about how low a probability can go for you to stay confident that it will happen

If what you're trying to get at is a game you must win at any cost, then I don't think you're giving good enough incentive or disincentive.

Some people are just careless. Some people have like 100$ to their name and would gamble with really low odds. Some gambling addicts basically do this as par for the course. Some people with a lot of money might really want double that money to start up a business or something and they're highly driven to get MORE but don't really care one way or the other if they have less. Someone who's manic at the point in time of making the choice is likely to set a lower limit. On the flip side someone who's totally depressed and has little/no sense of self preservation could set that really low too.

I just don't see the answers you're getting would be good representations of people's internal views of probability but more of, say, their mental health and status in society.

[Reach]

Well, I pooled the total of all of my assets not long ago for insurance purposes and given what I know about what I could lose and my line of credit situation, doubling it would help me out substantially and losing it all would hurt but in the grand scheme of things would be easy to recover from.

So I'd be pretty willing to do this. 90% would be a for sure thing. Maybe a bit lower.

[Fission]

i don't think i would ever accept this gamble no matter what the chances are (unless they are 100%, obv). i am rather content with my current quality of life and i don't want to give that up.

[Choofers]

Originally Posted by A2P

gambling's alright if you're smart about it (e.g., knowing your odds and not blowing money on roulette or keno)

took my post way too seriously


#baited

[rushyrulz]

90%

[Snowcrafta]

50%. I know how to fully recover from a pitfall, and it would probably only take me about 3 months to get everything back up to speed.

Money is just a tool, and if I lost, who cares? Brand new opportunity to change my life either way.

[Spenner]

I could live off the land and enjoy myself, maybe that would be a gamble won if it were a loss. There's just less of a security blanket over everything; at least it would force me to get out and have a sense of adventure, rather than spend my life in a linear routine until I'm too old to continue that linear routine.

And if I won? Then I wouldn't need to dedicate to that routine as much, I'd be twice as well off. In a way it's win-win but in two VASTLY different ways. It would very well be a loss for some each way too. Being too well off, you might do nothing but spend it all, and be owned by your possessions. If you necessitate having possessions, then losing the gamble would be a loss too. But there's always someone who would consider each outcome a win.

Also SnowCrafta it's all your possessions too remember~ that's the kicker for me.

[rushyrulz]

twice my life savings is like $10

[Dynam0]

1%

yolo