The FFR Credit Gambling Thread - Whine & Gloat HERE!

[rauchster]

Originally Posted by Beethovens mask

Wow Heyitsme, you have to fight hard against this dude. He's smart.

Sigged.
With minor addition of name.
Thanks Beethoven.

[cry4eternity]

bye bye 25k credits...
dang gambling binges, "I have to win eventually... I'll just keep betting the next amount up till I win"
I didn't win

[rauchster]

Originally Posted by Commandersa1

No strategy... Dx

10 23 hours ago Lost
10 23 hours ago Lost
10 23 hours ago Lost
50 23 hours ago Lost
10 yesterday Lost
10 yesterday Lost
10 yesterday Lost
10 yesterday Lost
10 yesterday Lost
10 yesterday Lost
10 2 days ago Lost

Also:

100 2 days ago Lost
100 2 days ago Lost
100 2 days ago Lost
100 2 days ago Lost
1000 2 days ago Lost
50 2 days ago Lost
10000 2 days ago Lost
10000 2 days ago Lost
10000 2 days ago Lost

There IS strategy.
I never said it wasn't possible that you won't get massive losing streaks.
I also never said it wasn't possible to get massive winning streaks.
Theoretically, You have the EXACT same chance of getting 100 wins in a row as getting any other individual combination of Wins/Losses. Why is it so uncommon for people to get 100 wins in a row? Because the law of averages is working against them. When you play 100 games of FFR Gambling, it is akin to flipping a coin 100 times.

What NORMALLY happens when you flip a coin 100 times. You'll end up with approximately 50 heads and approximately 50 tails. Now, there are always variations, but that is common.

I'll give you the short explanation why.
Using 4 coin flips as a demonstration:
The possible combinations are:
H-H-H-H
H-H-H-T
H-H-T-H
H-T-H-H
T-H-H-H
H-H-T-T
H-T-H-T
H-T-T-H
T-H-H-T
T-H-T-H
T-T-H-H
H-T-T-T
T-H-T-T
T-T-H-T
T-T-T-H
T-T-T-T

ALL of these have an EQUAL opportunity of happening. The total number of possibilities is 2^(Total number of rolls)
But note something. There is only ONE time where you get all heads. There are SIX times when you get 2 heads and 2 tails. Therefore you only have a 1 in 16 (6.25%) chance of winning (or losing) four in a row. Whereas you have a 6 in 16 chance (37.5%) of splitting 50/50.

To take this to a whole different level.
When you flip a coin 100 times (or 100 coins whichever), there are 1,267,650,600,228,229,401,496,703,205,376 different possible outcomes.
And yet, there is still only ONE combination that allows for 100 wins in a row. This has a 0.00000000000000000000000000000078886090522101180541172856528279% chance of happening
Whereas, there are over a QUADRILLION TRILLION combinations that allow for between 45 to 55 wins. (yes, that IS worded correctly)

So as you can see.
The longer a streak goes on, the more likely it is to break.

I hope I don't have to continue explaining this.

[iluswirl]

Gambling and I are love/hate. Up to 30k, down to 15k, up to 40k, down to 80, up to 1k. And here I sit, debating if I should try and gamble some more.

[andili]

Just as I was doing good...I made a dumb decision to bet 100k.
Then..it went down hill from there..
I am now...on the biggest negative decrease

[RagedBerserker]

Sweet I had made 150K in credits... and of course I got bored anddd went to the Gambling Hall, annnd I lost 175K in credits. Why? Why would I do such a thing?

[hahaujusdied]

For someone who has bombed on creds (I did even though I only had about 6k to begin with) I have found a strategy that works once a person gets 600-1k creds. I spend all my creds placing 50 cred wagers. I started at 600 tonight and after 4 times of betting all my creds on 50's im at 1,835. Yesterday i got from 191 to 20,092 until i lost 4 5k bets in a row O.O but im building back up :P

[Redorigami]

Got back up from 9 to 36k.

[rauchster]

Originally Posted by hahaujusdied

For someone who has bombed on creds (I did even though I only had about 6k to begin with) I have found a strategy that works once a person gets 600-1k creds. I spend all my creds placing 50 cred wagers. I started at 600 tonight and after 4 times of betting all my creds on 50's im at 1,835. Yesterday i got from 191 to 20,092 until i lost 4 5k bets in a row O.O but im building back up :P

No offense - but this is actually one of the worst strategies for playing FFR Gamble.
Remember - everything is a 50/50 chance. And the house will take 1 credit from each 50 wagered.

Say you spend 1000 credits on 50 wagers.
You'll put out 20 bids.
If you win 10, and lose 10 - which is normal - you will lose 500 credits from lost bets.
And you only win 980 credits for all your won bets (Remember, the house takes 1 from each 50 wagered, including the other guys.)
So now you are down to 980. You'll slowly lose credits over time.
If you win 11, you'll end up with 1078 credits.
But every time you win 9 (which will happen about as often as winning 11) you'll only get 882.

In order for this strategy to work, you need to maintain a 52% winning ratio. Over a short time span, this will work fine, because it's not hard to do that. Or a long term however, you're going to lose way more than you win, because the more games you play, the closer you'll eventually be to 50% and therefore losing money.

Of course, if you feel like this is a winning strategy, I'll gladly sit there and keep raking in my winnings.
Credits Won: 30002
Credits Lost: 22090

[tofurox]

Today....

143K>200K>130K>300K>200K>ETC.>1M>1.2M>1.65M

[Frozen Beat]

I lost all 40k...then I thought real hard...then I went to 50k =).

I'm going to stay safe here =).

[Orange Dude]

10000 10 seconds ago Won
5000 43 seconds ago Lost
1000 1 minutes ago Lost
500 1 minutes ago Lost
100 2 minutes ago Lost
50 3 minutes ago Lost
10 4 minutes ago Lost

This was kind of scary because I didn't have 50k to bet to win it all back as usual. This has happened twice now.

Credits Won: 22434
Credits Lost: 15270

[Breakdown16]

Geez. Every time I read the new posts in this thread, I'm convinced that I should gamble. You guys are going to destroy my principles.

[rauchster]

Yes, probable double post, but this is:
1: Gonna take me long enough to type that someone will probably type in another post before I finish
2: Completely different than my last post.


Just so you guys understand that there actually is strategy.
I tallied up all my stats into a Spreadsheet document and did some sorting and categorizing.
I stopped myself at 200 bets, just so I'd have a nice even number to work off of.

Win: 103
Lose: 97
Win%: 51.5%
Lose%: 48.5%
Total Amount of tokens wagered: 54570 (Which is about how many I had when I started)
Total Amount of tokens wagered on winning bets: 31700
Total Amount of tokens wagered on losing bets: 22870
Credits Won: 30968
Credits Lost: 22870
Credits Gained: 8098 (at that point, I'm over 11k up now)
Avg. Bet on Winning Bets: 307.77
Avg. Bet on Losing Bets: 235.77
Bet %'s:
10: 60 of 122 (49%)
50: 18 of 33 (54%)
100: 7 of 17 (41%)
500: 13 of 18 (72%)
1,000: 3 of 6 (50%)
5,000: 0 of 1 (0%) Because this was a stepping stone to the 10k's, I needed to lose this in order to move up, and have yet to go this far again.
10,000: 2 of 3 (66%)

If you'll notice.
My smaller bets (10-100) I use as judgments to calculate if I can move up to higher betting areas temporarily. I am 85 of 172 (49%) in these smaller bets. Which is about 50/50.
But once I decide to use my strategy on when to bet more, my %'s shoot way up.
I've gone 18 of 28 (64%) in the larger betting areas (500-10,000)

So to those who understand that there is strategy, this is your verification. For those who think it's pure luck, this is your proof that it isn't.

As a complete side-note:
I've now typed over 1,700 words and over 8,600 characters in this thread alone.
Go me.

[behanjc]

My gambling for the night.
Credits Won: 504816
Credits Lost: 503220

Woo made some cash!

[tofurox]

I lost 600K in 5 min....

[MilkChan]

46k->48k->37k->47k->46k

I'm not a dumbass so im not wasting my credits I just want enough credits for the secret songs+maybe a subscription.

[rauchster]

Slowly but surely winning:
Credits Won: 43153
Credits Lost: 28430

Overall Credit Gain: 14723
Considering I started with about 54k earned over 3.5+ years, and have added almost 15k in a little over a day, I'm happy.

[remedy1502]

Credits Won: 243157
Credits Lost: 224640

Little by little I improve...

Past Wagers Placed
Bet Amount When Result
1000 21 minutes ago Won
10 22 minutes ago Lost
10 23 minutes ago Won
10 23 minutes ago Won
10 23 minutes ago Won
10 23 minutes ago Won
50 13 hours ago Won

Maybe I'm better when I place the bets?

[hi19hi19]

rofl all you people doing all this math


there is no "strategy" for straight coin flips. 50/50 probability does NOT nessecarily mean that it will even out to 50/50 within a certain timeframe. Perhaps theoretically at infinity you reach 50/50 each time, but I can't comprehend the math you'd go to prove that kind of thing 0_o

At a short timeframe that you guys are dealing with (like, less than billions of bets) it's all luck, minus what the house takes.
Think if you get T-T-T. What's the next one going to be? By rauchster's logic, apparently it's more likely to be heads. As in, the NONPARTIAL & MEMORY-LESS coin is going to be weighted toward heads because it knows that it should start evening out to 50-50 about now. wtf? I don't get that logic.

EDIT- rauchster, your fallacy is assuming that an individual event consists of 4 coin flips. If the gambling game were based on a comparison of 4 flips, then each individual event would be more likely to tend toward 50-50 in the final tally. But you haven't proved anything there, because we all know that it's less likely to get T-T-T-T than any one of the 6 combinations of 2H & 2T. The thing is, the next flip after you get T-T-T-T is still just 50/50 to be T again, not influenced by the previous flips. You've confused combinations with permutations, I think XD


Comparing it to poker is just laughable, because in poker it's possible to bluff, read people's tells, calculate odds... all of which take a lot more skill than pressing a button with 50/50 chance of winning.









And the house wins in the end. Which is especially funny, because in this case, the house is just vaporizing their takings for the pleasure of watching all you go broke rofl