Old 06-25-2019, 05:18 PM   #481
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Default Re: jTWG LXXXIV: 8 New Players and Raeko Game Thread

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Yoshi is worrying me a lot
I thought more about Yoshi.

Why would Yoshi switch from gold stinger to voting mellon so quickly?
Their reasoning: my argument swayed them

What I see:
If Yoshi is a town:
This is a bad play. People already don't trust them. The fact Yoshi joins a new vote suggestion so quickly and without any acknowledgement of how weird it is makes them look weird.
The reason Yoshi gave would be the true reason, he just went for the most compelling candidate, despite the optics that would result from this.
Conclusion: if Yoshi is town, he plays an independent town. Yoshi doesn't care what people think about them, as long as Yoshi finds the wolf. I find this believable.

If Yoshi is a wolf:
Yoshi moved their vote to melloncollie to get a train going. Melloncollie has a "big dick" wall of text lining up with her actions, which would make her an easy mislynch if a lot of people get on this train.

However, I find this play wouldn't make sense as a wolf.
* I cannot picture a world where a junior wolf would attempt to make waves at this point in the game. My entire reasoning is based on this hypothesis. By moving their vote, Yoshi is clearly making some big waves. Any player who rolled wolf, regardless of how noob they are, can understand how votes attract attention, and why switching votes so suddenly at that specific time would be the equivalent of digging their own grave. No one does that. There is nothing to gain here.
* I cannot picture a world were a Veteran wolf would attempt to make waves at this point either. A veteran knows better than to completely 180 their thoughts from a single townie post. It looks bad, like "oh, this town says something that fits my agenda, so I approve!". It looks bad from a mile away. Nobody attemps that.

Tl;dr, I only see this strange vote switch if Yoshi is a town that doesn't care what people think about them. This is what I'll choose to believe from now on. I'm able to reconciliate the picture I had of them before their vote switch with their current actions.
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Old 06-25-2019, 05:18 PM   #482
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Default Re: jTWG LXXXIV: 8 New Players and Raeko Game Thread

Tl dr
Yoshi is town, let's go elsewhere
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Old 06-25-2019, 05:19 PM   #483
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Default Re: jTWG LXXXIV: 8 New Players and Raeko Game Thread

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btw this is quality wifom material
Wifom????? Is that a typo or what
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Old 06-25-2019, 05:20 PM   #484
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Default Re: jTWG LXXXIV: 8 New Players and Raeko Game Thread

what wifom are you thinking of

If you're thinking of the dilemma that arises from trying to predict whether someone has made an optimal but expected choice, or a suboptimal but unexpected one. then you are correct.

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=WIFOM
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Old 06-25-2019, 05:20 PM   #485
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Default Re: jTWG LXXXIV: 8 New Players and Raeko Game Thread

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Town read - Sven, Mario, Golden Stinger
(Voted Shadow)
So these are basically the confirmed towns then?
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Old 06-25-2019, 05:23 PM   #486
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Default Re: jTWG LXXXIV: 8 New Players and Raeko Game Thread

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So these are basically the confirmed towns then?
I feel this as randomly defending old town leans to tell everyone you are innocent.
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Old 06-25-2019, 05:24 PM   #487
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Default Re: jTWG LXXXIV: 8 New Players and Raeko Game Thread

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wow

cool post

Regarding thought #1:


Can you expand on this a bit? Do you mean that this particular point makes you think the wolf is within the people he townread and not within the people he nullread?

As an aside, staring at the reads list so much, I just noticed he didn't even say that Raeko was null, just that "it was good she wasn't here".
I think putting someone as null would be protecting them as well. It evokes nothing, so it certainly doesn't put some light on them at the time of posting the list.

And yes, shadow's read of raeko looks dodge-ish, like "I don't want to make a read here", it factored into my vote for raeko
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Old 06-25-2019, 05:24 PM   #488
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Default Re: jTWG LXXXIV: 8 New Players and Raeko Game Thread

I’m also very prone to just randomly saying shit at the moment.
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Old 06-25-2019, 05:28 PM   #489
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Default Re: jTWG LXXXIV: 8 New Players and Raeko Game Thread

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I feel this as randomly defending old town leans to tell everyone you are innocent.
No, itís because of this post:

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I don't get this, specifically the bolded part.

- you never stated in any of your previous posts that you were reading anyone based on the fact that they had voted (or not) on shadowgod. (this is why it's important to actually post what you're thinking, not just think it!)
- even if you did, "random lucky votes" are never random when they come from the wolf. A wolf doesn't "randomly" land their vote on their wolf partner. If they do, it's because they're throwing their partner under the bus (usually referred to as "bussing"), which is pretty much against their own win condition, if they do it so early in the game.
Iím trying to figure out who they are again, this game gets confusing fast. If those are like the confirmed towns, then yeah, that was a bad idea to vote goldenstinger, for sure.
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Old 06-25-2019, 05:29 PM   #490
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Default Re: jTWG LXXXIV: 8 New Players and Raeko Game Thread

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Sanzath why did you wait 15 hours to respond to some of the stuff I put on you
I figured waiting it out would make me less frustrated about you wolfreading me

It actually had the opposite effect

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It means that if you're willing to consider the scenario that the conversation between Shadowgod and Antori is fabricated, then you should also take into consideration the possibility of the conversation between Shadowgod & Yoshi being fabricated, which didn't even happen because Yoshi was not around to post.

scum leaning Antori from that back and forth would mean town leaning Yoshi for me.
I mean, meh. I don't see how scumleaning antori from that automatically means townleaning yoshi harder. If Yoshi just wasn't around for it to happen, then obviously it couldn't. But Antori was around at the same time as shadowgod, so that could happen. You know? So I don't see how one situation having the possibility of happening and actually happening, affects the other situation that didn't have the possibility of happening at all.

I don't know if you see what I mean? Like I feel like your logic on the situation is maybe flawed, but maybe it's mine that's flawed and I don't know how statistics work
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Old 06-25-2019, 05:32 PM   #491
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Default Re: jTWG LXXXIV: 8 New Players and Raeko Game Thread

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So these are basically the confirmed towns then?
Yoshi, every time you post, you hurt your image as a town. Think of it like this


Right now, you are quoting a post you made where you said the equivalent of " I read everyone who voted for Shadow as town, so I'm contributing to finding towns!". There are issues with bringing this up, though

- this is not rocket science. Everyone that voted Shadow looks good, because yes, Shadow was a wolf. Everyone assumes that right off the bat as d1 starts: sven (rip), GS and me were the best town candidates for the first second of d1 by default
- you did mention these reads earlier. That's one thing. Now you're bringing them back. What for? No new knowledge is gained, you just look like someone trying to prove their innocence, but your evidence is entirely controlled by you since it's your post.

If you want to prove something, prove us your intent, rather than bringing the fact you said something.
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Old 06-25-2019, 05:33 PM   #492
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Default Re: jTWG LXXXIV: 8 New Players and Raeko Game Thread

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Yoshi, every time you post, you hurt your image as a town. Think of it like this


Right now, you are quoting a post you made where you said the equivalent of " I read everyone who voted for Shadow as town, so I'm contributing to finding towns!". There are issues with bringing this up, though

- this is not rocket science. Everyone that voted Shadow looks good, because yes, Shadow was a wolf. Everyone assumes that right off the bat as d1 starts: sven (rip), GS and me were the best town candidates for the first second of d1 by default
- you did mention these reads earlier. That's one thing. Now you're bringing them back. What for? No new knowledge is gained, you just look like someone trying to prove their innocence, but your evidence is entirely controlled by you since it's your post.

If you want to prove something, prove us your intent, rather than bringing the fact you said something.
Forgot to add, you did vote for Gold Stinger shortly after, so this makes you seem wishy washy. The fact you bring this up reminds us of your wishy washiness
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Old 06-25-2019, 05:34 PM   #493
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Default Re: jTWG LXXXIV: 8 New Players and Raeko Game Thread

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I also agree with this, and it's quite infuriating. If the inactive set of town (ShyYoshiGuy, Antori, Raeko, dragonmega) don't start taking the reigns of the situation and start attempting to solve the game from outside of a mechanic standpoint then the next few day phases are going to be largely inactive, and ripe for the final wolf to steer conversation whichever way they please.

At least with MN's post I am satisfied knowing that no matter who dies in the night phase tonight, there's still going to be a lot of town solving happening.
The slipzone is calling for me

I'm resisting its call
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Old 06-25-2019, 05:34 PM   #494
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Default Re: jTWG LXXXIV: 8 New Players and Raeko Game Thread

I still read Yoshi as town. No way any wolf, regardless of skill, would attempt to play like this. I refuse.
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Old 06-25-2019, 05:35 PM   #495
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Default Re: jTWG LXXXIV: 8 New Players and Raeko Game Thread

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I mean, meh. I don't see how scumleaning antori from that automatically means townleaning yoshi harder. If Yoshi just wasn't around for it to happen, then obviously it couldn't. But Antori was around at the same time as shadowgod, so that could happen. You know? So I don't see how one situation having the possibility of happening and actually happening, affects the other situation that didn't have the possibility of happening at all.

I don't know if you see what I mean? Like I feel like your logic on the situation is maybe flawed, but maybe it's mine that's flawed and I don't know how statistics work
ok now take everything you just said right there

and assume in that situation, Yoshi is the final wolf instead of Antori.

It doesn't really work imo because Yoshi never responded or even tried to help themselves the entire eod. That's really REALLY bad as 2 wolves, and I don't think Shadowgod would set that up by himself considering they both had access to wolfchat at the time.
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Old 06-25-2019, 05:37 PM   #496
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Default Re: jTWG LXXXIV: 8 New Players and Raeko Game Thread

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The slipzone is calling for me

I'm resisting its call
Interesting find, something to keep in mind
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Old 06-25-2019, 05:37 PM   #497
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Default Re: jTWG LXXXIV: 8 New Players and Raeko Game Thread

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ok now take everything you just said right there

and assume in that situation, Yoshi is the final wolf instead of Antori.

It doesn't really work imo because Yoshi never responded or even tried to help themselves the entire eod. That's really REALLY bad as 2 wolves, and I don't think Shadowgod would set that up by himself considering they both had access to wolfchat at the time.
oh

but my assumption is based off of --

oh right

shadowgod literally voted for yoshi right after backing off of antori

yeah ok that's a really good point and I'm an idiot for not seeing it sooner
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Old 06-25-2019, 05:39 PM   #498
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Default Re: jTWG LXXXIV: 8 New Players and Raeko Game Thread

@Sanzath

@ Gold stinger


Your endless arguing is confusing everyone. Are you guys on the same page, or not? What are your summarized opinions?
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Old 06-25-2019, 05:39 PM   #499
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Default Re: jTWG LXXXIV: 8 New Players and Raeko Game Thread

Also I'm really sorry MN, I read all of d0 Sanzath and all I found was a ShyYoshiGuy/MN wolf read early that shadowgod joked about being correct, and some slight tunneling on H&H.

I can try re-reading d1 Sanzath but I'm not hopeful that I will find anything from a new angle or that I agree with in a town-solving scenario.
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Old 06-25-2019, 05:41 PM   #500
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Default Re: jTWG LXXXIV: 8 New Players and Raeko Game Thread

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yeah ok that's a really good point and I'm an idiot for not seeing it sooner
OH BABY
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