TWG 200 Game Thread: Dichotomy

[TWGma]

(also, if y'all ever want to live in someone's head rent-free, lemme tell you, it's pretty neat)

[XelNya]

Originally Posted by TWGma

(also, if y'all ever want to live in someone's head rent-free, lemme tell you, it's pretty neat)

I love in a mansion rent free let me tell yah

[bugkid666]

ok good nothing important happened while I was asleep

[DaBackpack]

Originally Posted by Funnygurl555

current reads:
kappa is town (or not wolf)
xiz is town
dbp is town
funky is (prolly) town

bugkid is null
haku is null

t-force is scum

oh shit hey i was writing this up but then i had work to do. hey guys

you just posted that "scum thrive on chaos" and yet you have Xiz as town. why?

[roundbox]

@Lewdy

Your EOD was reminiscent of the most recent TWEWY game. I remember wolfreading you at an EOD for being frozen, and I thought it was happening again. As soon as I posted my vote with my observation in tow, you made a post right around the same time that went completely against my point (you were making very surface-level posts around the same topic). I thought I was wrong about you, so I went to Haku because of their vote on Logman.
Once the heat started piling on Haku (my vote with Force and Blind was unintentionally simultaneous), I jumped off. I kinda regret it in retrospect, because I don't see any foul play with blind, and I've been pretty fond of Force's game so far.

Originally Posted by Celirra

mcdaddio
you have 5 min

this post re: Celery vote
He went for an off-wagon after an unvote. Sure, you can say I did the same thing, but I'm not sure what the vote from Celery on to mcdaddio with that specific reasoning really satisfies my "yeah, this is a good reason to not jump on a train"

to a point, I do think it is a slightly bad habit of mine to be stubborn and typically give more preference to wagons I started and vote off the main stuff (early game), but eh, I think I've said enough

[Charu]

Obligatory suggestive post of the day.



Yes.

[roundbox]

I extend a word of caution to everyone trying to metagame this mystery setup
I can believe Xiz when he says he's willing to take one for the team for science, but it rubs me the wrong way in spirit (mostly because of IRL time commitment capabilities). I don't like it when there's a prescribed "this is how we have to progress with this setup" plan because WE ARE STILL MISSING SO MUCH INFORMATION

I think playing it by the book will grant us more results than sciencing the setup. If anything, sunfan is sitting at his computer cracking a grin at some of our theories (reminds me of watching people scramble for the hidden immunity idol in Survivor: Newfoundland) because we're close, but not quite fully correct. The gap in information can lead to bad actors who have more information to steer the "science" in a direction that is opportune for them. Granted our setup is massive, this information gap steering could be more likely than you think given how many anti-town realistically exist.

I'll go back to where I left off: celery
what was the vote on mcdaddio for?

[roundbox]

gaming the setup is cool, but only when you realistically know all the moves that will happen ahead mechanically

I see no inherent risk in this setup actively hunting scum and identifying who I think is town. it uses the guaranteed mechanic of voting. do people get where I'm trying to go here?

[DaBackpack]

@star_crossed

welcome, thank you for your contributions so far. you are absolutely right about EoD, and the general lack of investigation on that front

speaking personally, the focus on understanding the game mechanics and trying to understand the graphs+neighbor situation was an attempt at finding some structure and order to the game. especially after 4 flips giving zero information, which was really demoralizing. but having time to process things and sleep on it, it's really just a "whatever" right now. we just have to move forward and hunt wolves with the few means we have.

I say this because I know it's going to sound hypocritical for me to say "let's move on" because of how much time I've spent lingering on mechanics and setup this phase, but I think this is the best route to take atm. Mechanics discussion atm is giving diminishing returns, and more importantly, gives wolves free cover to feign intellectual investment in the game.

[DaBackpack]

Originally Posted by roundbox

gaming the setup is cool, but only when you realistically know all the moves that will happen ahead mechanically

I see no inherent risk in this setup actively hunting scum and identifying who I think is town. it uses the guaranteed mechanic of voting. do people get where I'm trying to go here?

ninja'd

celery

his pressure on mcdaddio stands out as scummy and detached from the CFD happening around him. his vote by itself is bad, but the fact that he thought to divert his attention away from the CFD and probe mcdaddio for reads with only 5 minutes left in the phase is... bad

he might have wanted to protect a partner i guess, but this is a roundabout way of doing it. it looks more like he or his team realized that their vote distribution looked awkward and scummy and he shifted it in order to not have their votes all on the same wagon.

if this is true, it would suggest that the wolves were not really in danger last EoD--- at least at the T-5 minute point.

[DaBackpack]

[twgv]celery[/b] oops

[DaBackpack]

goddamn it celery

[roundbox]

where I'm going is here:
eliminating Xiz here for SCIENCE isn't particularly helpful for the following reasons

Xiz is a good Samaritan and sacrificing himself for town - Good possibility we end up with no flip revealed, and from what we've heard from game 2, it doesn't sound like it's gonna get anywhere closer before EOD. This also means town parity -1
Xiz has information about the setup and isn't forthcoming - As it says on the tin. It could be advantageous for him to be entered into the second game. This is just free help. Most likely the anti-town option.

___

the scenario I'd like to see is a change in the start of day message in the other game. if we vote someone out today and their start of day message changes, we might have a confirmed anti-town on our hands. it could be confounded by the additions of the incoming night kill(s) in this game pouring into game 2, but typically I don't expect anti-towns to die in the night regardless of the setup.

[roundbox]

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

roundbox scum alert 📢

nice of you to join me on the celery vote

I know this is an old read, but I only bring it up because I saw star reference it in the other thread

[DaBackpack]

an important thing to remember is that (im assuming) nobody in the game knew that there was going to be a purgatory game thread. which means, wolves EXPECTED a color flip last phase, just like the rest of us.

this means that we can still use wagonomics in a more traditional capacity for last phase. In the scramble, wolves sought to maneuver their votes in a way that protected themselves and the team as a whole. They expected a color flip, even if one didn't happen, so they most likely intended to spread their votes across all of the different non-threatening wagons in order to avoid stacking in a suspicious manner.

This makes celery stand out even more.

[roundbox]

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

an important thing to remember is that (im assuming) nobody in the game knew that there was going to be a purgatory game thread. which means, wolves EXPECTED a color flip last phase, just like the rest of us.

this means that we can still use wagonomics in a more traditional capacity for last phase. In the scramble, wolves sought to maneuver their votes in a way that protected themselves and the team as a whole. They expected a color flip, even if one didn't happen, so they most likely intended to spread their votes across all of the different non-threatening wagons in order to avoid stacking in a suspicious manner.

This makes celery stand out even more.

I concur. I also forgot to add this possibility to my Xiz chart:

Xiz Chaos - See dictionary entry on "entropy"

there is a possibility that anti-town didn't get this information (dual games), so hypothetically he could be anti-town just wanting to jump into the other game for CHAOS reasons

[DaBackpack]

Originally Posted by roundbox

nice of you to join me on the celery vote

I know this is an old read, but I only bring it up because I saw star reference it in the other thread

I think it was the parenthetical "I liked it, ok??" that stood out to me as unnecessarily defensive at the time. Especially for ended up as an un-controversial take.

roundbox-- if celery is wolf here, how does that affect mcdaddio for you?

[the sun fan]

Votecount:
raeko (1)- kappa
xiz (4)- bugkid, xiz, choof, freezin
cedolad (1)- Xel
shadow_god (1)- shadow_god
force (1)- fg
celery (2)- roundbox, DBP

[Shadow_God_10]

Originally Posted by the sun fan

Votecount:
raeko (1)- kappa
xiz (4)- bugkid, xiz, choof, freezin
cedolad (1)- Xel
shadow_god (1)- shadow_god
force (1)- fg
celery (2)- roundbox, DBP

WAT?

I have a Vote on Cedolad

[Shadow_God_10]

Also good morning