TWG CLX If Emblem was a bad employee Game Thread

[Precarious]

Originally Posted by Pazzaz

Ok, I've been thinking about the consequences of what I'm about to say, I hope this provides clarity. I thought about keeping this a secret but I will have to say this before the EOD incase I die so here's the truth.
I couldn't speak D0 but instead I received the ability to switch the positions of two people at the beginning of N1. I switched AragakiAyase and Charu. This is why several people reacted weird, they thought AA was gonna die or atleast not that Charu was gonna die. So if I die as town, AA is confirmed town (or the wolves tried to kill one of their own lol).

TL;DR AragakiAyase IS CONFIRMED TOWN FOR ME

From now on I'm normal townie and will be scumhunting. I'll post my thoughts about everyone later.

Originally Posted by Pazzaz

No not really, that was not why I chose him. Yes, choosing a scum and a townie and the scum then dying would have been good but the chances for that happening would be pretty low. If I choose two people who are probably townies, if one of them die then I'll know the other is a townie too. I didn't want to throw my ability way and have it not affecting anything.

Not enough attention has been paid to this. I mean, people are using this as a basis to semi-clear Paz, but his initial point raised a topic that's worth investigating further.

Originally Posted by Pazzaz

This is why several people reacted weird, they thought AA was gonna die or atleast not that Charu was gonna die.

First off, this is stated way too definitively; if Pazzaz's role is (was) really to switch effects on N1, he shouldn't actually know this. But assuming it's just awkwardly phrased and it's just what he thinks, it instead raises an important point. There were several people who were really surprised that Charu was nightkilled--if this was because Charu died when AA was targeted (and this is reinforced by the daykill today), then that surprise is fundamentally suspicious, because it links those people to the kill. Lots of people get nightkilled for a variety of reasons, so the outcry makes more sense if those people knew Charu shouldn't have died. But the only people that could know that are are the killers themselves, Pazzaz, and potentially a watcher-type role if that exists in this game.

Having said that, there are a few problems with Pazzaz's logic, and I'm a little uncomfortable with how readily people have cleared him (although I lean toward him being town, since claim gambits tend to blow up, it's not really definitive imo). Basically, his town-town plan doesn't make a lot of sense. By his own claim, as far as I can tell, his role was enforced silence on D0 in exchange for being able to switch night effects on two players on N1. This doesn't give him any special insights or investigative information, so his plan suffers from the following problems:

Multiple people seemed to be town-reading AA strongly. This would have made AA a more likely night protection (again assuming that power exists in this game, but a doctor-type role is super standard) target. It's also not that unlikely that someone other than AA could have been targeted for a nightkill; while town reads might have made him the most likely target, the field overall still seems more likely. Pazzaz's logic seems to assume that AA (or perhaps Charu) would have been targeted, and while that's somewhat reasonable, it runs into the problem of why he chose Charu as the other player. This was supposedly so that the town-town effect would provide him with some information, but he only gets information if one of them dies. If that's the case, why not choose a potential wolf to receive the transferred deathblow? The payoff only makes sense if one expects Charu to be targeted (which would transfer death to AA), obtaining an unconfirmable town read at the expense of potentially killing a wolf. In any TWG/mafia game, town are always going to outnumber its antagonists to start. That's the basic premise of the game. As such, individual town reads aren't super useful (especially early on) in comparison to wolf reads or wolf kills. But his language choice acts as if getting a town clear was fait accompli, which again assumes information he shouldn't have.

In spite of the above, I'm still leaning town on Pazzaz, since claim gambits tend to blow up sooner or later, and his hasn't so far. But one way or another, the mechanics of his situation demand further consideration (especially since his roleclaim entailed a D0 post restriction, which if true suggests other posting modifiers may be in effect now or later).