[reuben_tate]

Originally Posted by roundbox

I extend a word of caution to everyone trying to metagame this mystery setup
I can believe Xiz when he says he's willing to take one for the team for science, but it rubs me the wrong way in spirit (mostly because of IRL time commitment capabilities). I don't like it when there's a prescribed "this is how we have to progress with this setup" plan because WE ARE STILL MISSING SO MUCH INFORMATION

I think playing it by the book will grant us more results than sciencing the setup. If anything, sunfan is sitting at his computer cracking a grin at some of our theories (reminds me of watching people scramble for the hidden immunity idol in Survivor: Newfoundland) because we're close, but not quite fully correct. The gap in information can lead to bad actors who have more information to steer the "science" in a direction that is opportune for them. Granted our setup is massive, this information gap steering could be more likely than you think given how many anti-town realistically exist.

I somewhat agree with some of these points but we seem to be arriving at different conclusions. You're right that there is a huge lack of information in this game but my takeaway from that is that we should do what we can to gather information; this is why I was pushing so hard on having an insta happen in the 2nd game (which unfortunately told us nothing, but I still think it was a good idea and I don't believe there was much of anything lost as a result of the insta).

I'm worried that people will interpret this post to mean that we should all entirely ignore the 2nd game and pretend it doesn't exist. It seems that some people are already in this mindset and it feels incredibly shortsighted. Voting off a wolf in this game doesn't even have the same consequence as usual, so trying to play this game 100% like a "normal" game and hoping it'll work out is wishful thinking imho.

Trying to figure out who is or isn't scum is still just as important, but even this aspect of the game requires insight into the overall game structure. One can't fully understand people's motivations/actions/intent/etc if one isn't willing to engage with the full game.

Originally Posted by bugkid666

this reads very town to me, but I don't think I ever had much doubt about mcdaddio tbh. I will say, am I the only one who doesn't give a shit about neighborhood relations? I'm sure other people feel this way too but just aren't vocalizing it... I barely know what y'all are saying about blind and charu and I don't know what their chatlog consists of but do we really think that's the reason blind got night killed? I personally don't think so

If something goes down in a neighborhood chat, I think it's worth at least keeping it in the back of your mind.

As for the neighborhoods in general, I would put them as low priority compared to everything else in the game. To me, the neighborhoods are essentially "a chatroom with someone who may or may not be wolf" and I don't think they'll serve much use, at least not in this stage of the game.

Originally Posted by fatfuck42

So, I know these "charts" aren't particularly accurate since the time isn't a constant, but it still gives a good idea as to how and when each wagon formed or dissolved.

I don't see any real issues with Ben's wagon. I believe raeko's explanation for why she joined the wagon, and I believe freezin too since he took the same issues with ben's posts that I did. You could potentially say that choof and kappa's votes could be wolves parking a vote, but I'm still townreading choof hard and kappa's progression seems organic.

Logman's wagon is harder to parse. It develops naturally enough, but kappa's the only one who unvotes. Everyone else goes to logman and stays there. If logman/star are town then it'd be a great wagon for a lowkey wolf to join. Logman was inactive, so there's not much justification needed to vote for them. On the other hand, if logman/star are a wolf then the people on this wagon look pretty good. I don't know what each person's history of bussing wolf partners is like, but each of them were in the thread right up til the end and could've switched off of logman if needed.

Haku's wagon doesn't look so hot. There's gotta be wolves in there IMO. As for the motivation, if you look at the votecounts in the minutes prior, it seems as though it was to save either ben or logman.

This is all really helpful, thank you.