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Old 08-28-2018, 09:58 PM   #2978
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Join Date: Aug 2011
Posts: 491
Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

Originally Posted by Tps222 View Post
No, if we mislynch we need to bank of them killing at least one of the other or we guarantee a draw/loss. Obviously a correct lynch is best, but if we no lynch we create a situation where they have to each coinflip the other to have any shot if winning. Two coinflip gambles from them to hit the other is better than one 2/3 guess from us unless we all agree on a Target.
ok well i currently forget how conditional probabilities work, so i'm not in a position to show you math

but fmpov the 2/3 is 100% because i'll always be voting to lynch not-me

following your scenario actually just kinda makes things longer for no reason

(i'm into the last 50 xiz posts btw)
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