05-2-2020, 08:28 PM
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#2749
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~ お ま ん こ ~
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: unlikely
Age: 30
Posts: 915
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Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
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Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe
Sure, but when someone says the difference is marginal and "effectively the same", then that has to be corrected if the one possibility is 27 times more likely than the other.. right?
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No because you're not considering the actual statistical distribution of setups in the entire game. What's the standard deviation? It might be the case that TTTT is the "mean" set of T rolls, but even though the literal probability of TT is off by 25x, that 25x difference doesn't mean anything until you do a more comprehensive analysis and contextualize it against the other T-rolls. For example, TT is more likely than TTTTTTT and TTTTTT. So yeah, TTTT is more likely than TT but not in a meaningful way-- it's still like the 3rd-4th most likely outcome if you roll the entire setup
you can prove this with Monte-Carlo simulation if you want to
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by Moogy
no one cares
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TWG Dan Hedgehog
there are 743 matches for hedgehog suicide on deviantart
that's kind of a sad statistic
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