Quote:
Originally Posted by VulcanRevenge
The main reason why this concept is difficult to understand, I imagine, is because most of your examples are of objects and situations that I consider to have a low level of uncertainty. Where the problems and fallacy of which I speak of comes from, is when we consider these numbers to be accurate in objects and situations of higher uncertainty. For example, trying to predict human behavior.
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its Illogical to be logical in that basing anything on any previous event is wrong because everything has changed with the progression of time. although it might help in any case where unpredictability is appropriate, these thoughts are hinderances to a working mind.
I would like to just point out there is no other working system by which to go by. Defining something as low level of uncertainty shows you dont even believe in your own argument. You know we aren't omniscient, although taking account for everything isn't absurd, problem solving simply shows what you should pay attention to. Its like this, if you want to account for every factor involved.
"I have two apples in this hand and 3 apples in this hand, how many apples do i have?"
and the kid says, "well lets look at all the factors first teacher, you have 2 apples in your left hand and 3 apples in your right hand a beard on your face and a nose inbetween your eyes. we didnt account for one thing"
"and whats that"
"kim jung eil. What if today is a bad day for him and hes already crazy angry and a servant girl gave him a dud grenade to use for fishing in the pond. Then today he finds out also that one of his ships was searched by the UN. He is going to launch a nuke and then you will have no apples."
"well we are in flordia, his nuclear strike range cant reach us here."
"well you forgot, what if the sun mivrowaves the world and you have no apples."
... enough of that story.
ANother thing, Human behavior is quite predictable. How many times have you interacted with someone in your life and they pulled out a shotgun and just starting hurting people?(sorry to re-traumatize those who have) or any other absurd thing that can possibly happen. its very unlikely. Social intuition comes around when you realize that you have an effect on people in your environment. or what about trying to pick up on someone?
Or i guess what you mean if you gave a human a choice in a maze, they are at the start a walkway to the left and a walkway to the right. how can you predict where they will go? Well its said that most people will choose their dominant hands direction when picking which way to go. and over 70% of the earth is "right-handed". Where do you think the man will pick.
Both of these are "high uncertainty" situations. Yet, there are still ways to grasp what is going to happen as an observer.
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what i am getting at.
Can you offer another system besides math and words that will show accurately how to predict "low uncertainty" problems and "high uncertainty" problems? OH wait people did, its called Luck Chama and Intuition... I will stick to numbers and words.