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Old 08-23-2018, 12:18 PM   #2240
the sun fan
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Join Date: Mar 2017
Age: 29
Posts: 444
Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

so, as celery pointed out, there is a potential problem with the massclaim is TPS doesn't participate, so there's a few different things that can happen

TPS hits 10 contentful posts (I don't know where the bar is but there's no way its higher than this given blind and precarious were in the teens on d1 but didn't get the message TPS got) but never claims his role:
Lynch him. No reason for him to be the sole holdout here when it could mean the life of a blue, and we can't let a wolf get away with denying town that info.

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TPS hits 10 contentful posts, claims his role. We resolve as necessary. We probably just have a normal phase if this happens.

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TPS doesn't post any more, we expect him to be modkilled, so we lynch Freezin. There's no way to verify whether or not Freezin is telling the truth for sure if we are missing a piece, but it doesn't matter too much if TPS is getting modkilled anyway, and here's why.

Currently 9 alive, 6 town and 3 wolves looks like the most likely scenario by far.
9 alive: tps is modkilled, freezin is lynched (The modkill happens before Freezin shoots assuming he is the vengeful)
tps could be a wolf, freezin could also be a wolf (a lot less likely), and if freezin is a vengeful like he says he is, then town gets a shot at killing a wolf with his ChAoS sHoT.

What is beneath is the worst possible scenario where town can continue onwards.

If Tps is town, freezin is vengeful, then we're at 7 (4 town 3 wolves) alive, and freezin has to both shoot (he can apparently choose not to) and hit a wolf in order for the game to continue, which brings us to 6 alive, then the wolves kill a town bringing us to 5 (3 town 2 wolves), which is still workable, just not ideal.

The only scenario where town outright loses is one where TPS is town, Freezin is Vanilla Town and made a stupid play, and then town loses when the wolves make a nightkill, but this doesn't seem too likely given how early freezin was softing.
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