[Precarious]

Originally Posted by roundbox

Either way, the prisoner's dilemma goes something like this:

Two prisoners are brought in for a crime they committed together. They're taken to separate cells and questioned individually. For fun, let's call them prisoner Apple and prisoner Banana.
The cop on their case tells them that they have two options: they can confess or keep quiet. If both Apple and Banana confess, they'll both serve 5 years. If Apple confesses but Banana keeps quiet, Apple will serve 2 years and Banana will serve 15 years (and vice versa). If they both stay quiet, they serve 10 years.

What decision is the best? Sell out your partner and get less time if they keep quiet? Is it worth risking 10 years to stay true to your teammate, or do you lack trust?

This relates to taking the power at night vs not taking it. Are you confident enough in your own abilities to make whatever power you get work best for you? Or do you think too many people will take the option of potentially selling out their teammates if too many take it?

I think this is an internal decision; too much open planning benefits the wolves since they can sabotage us with some pretty easy accuracy (especially later in the game, holy fuck).
I'm open for discussion on this since this is better quashed earlier than later.

Roundbox switched around a couple of the numbers, but I think everyone gets the gist of the prisoner's dilemma (or could look it up). The thing is, in the archetypal prisoner's dilemma, you know the stakes and potential outcomes. There are only two people, and the possible outcomes of talking/silence are easy to follow. Here, we have a whole host of players all operating independently, not all of whom are aligned. Not only is it impossible to predict who requests blue roles, but we don't have a # = effect chart as far as I know. Ultimately, I think this will have to be a “make your own decision” sort of thing.

That's particularly true since roundbox's conclusion is on point. Even in a normal game it can be difficult to plan anything publicly without allowing the wolves the potential to interfere; it's heightened with no card flips. But the wolves' guessing power pretty much rules out coordinating our greed. The logic and risks of discussion can be revisited each day—it's possible some future circumstance could incentivize group planning. I just have trouble imagining what that might be.