Thought #1 : A dead wolf's reads list
Because of the number of wolves in this game, this reads list from Shadow_God_10 is the only opportunity we will have at looking into a confirmed wolf's mind (before the end of the game):
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shadow_God_10
Have a bullshit reads list that I summoned via demonic circle:
Mario- I'm wolf leaning because you've been all over the place and a little aggressive imo (I'm pretty sure I'm the only one thinking that)
Sanzath- More than likely town. +1 for the Haku wisdom you blessed us with
Yoshi- I have no idea who you are which makes it weird, not to mention you were prepared to sling Dragon to the sun for not even posting once. I'm very conflicted about you. Null for now
Antori- Probably not a wolf but if he's lurking in the shadows as one, he completely forgot to make his own presence known to all of us which I think is suspect
Raeko- AFK Raeko is probably beneficial for us newer players so that way she doesn't come swooping in to massacre us all.
Sven- You're town as fuck. You've been really helpful for the newer players and I, for one appreciate it a lot
GS- Dicks. Butts. and Dicks. You're a chaotic towny who would steal from his own villages candy supply.
Dragon- I had you as a wolf who wasn't sure how to react at first, but you opened up to us which made things way better for you. I'm very convinced you're town.
If I have to vote, then I'm probably going to say Antori because of potential bad play.
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Before we read into this list, we must determine what was Shadow_God_10's as he was posting it.
Before we do, some facts:
* The list was posted 5.75 hours before his lynch
* At the time of his post, the votes were:
Was Shadow_God_10 trying to save his own skin?
Surely. Reads look good in general, and he was probably hoping either H&H and/or I would remove our votes on him. The votes on him at that point weren't based on deep arguments: H&H voted right out of the gates, and I voted Shadow_God because his tone seemed "off" (aka nothing concrete, I wanted him to post just to get a better idea of his tone). In theory, the vote switch could have happened: H&H's vote for Shadow_God was during his 3rd post, which was the 5th post of the entire game. I believe H&H is the only one who aimed at the same person for the entirety of d0, so Shadow_God was probably hoping H&H would "be reasonable" and do like everyone else, which is to move their vote around. As for me, I switched votes a lot during d0, so Shadow_God was probably still feeling rather safe. I think the only point at which he felt in danger is when he posted
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shadow_God_10
Welp.
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just 1h10m before the deadline, at which point he went after gold stinger, probably thinking "There's no way I'm getting through this by arguing, so I'll use votes instead".
Was Shadow_God_10 trying to shift blame?
What I think: Probably. He did list me as wolf. Unless I'm mistaken, the only other person who had me as a wolf lean was Hateandhatred. I think Shadow_God was trying to get a bus rolling, but it never worked.
The other wolf leans Shadow_God had in his list were Yoshi and Antori.
Shadow_God and Antori: They had a bit of back and forth, with Antori's defense only being
Quote:
Originally Posted by Antori
whenever i try to explain my reads people jump on me and now it gave me ptsd.
goldstinger because this isn't his usual town meta i saw him play before, he's alot more"cautious" than i'm used to him.
yoshi because of low effort he'd done.
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And for some reason this was automatically satisfactory for Shadow_God, who went on to pressure Yoshi right after.
Sanzath actually pointed at this interaction:
Quote:
Originally Posted by sanzath
big post but
I feel like the interaction between shadowgod and antori feels kinda manufactured? Like, if they're together in wolfchat, they could have come up with that entire sequence beforehand in an attempt to say "hey let's interact together to draw away suspicion". Idk, it feels fake to me.
Anyone else see it?
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I agree that it feels odd, kind of like "there and done". No one else had the time to step into that interaction.
Shadow_God and Yoshi: Still null, no interaction at all from what I can see.
Was Shadow_God_10 protecting his wolf partner?
That's the million dollar question... Since he was "wolf leaning" me, I'm tempted to say that, yes, he was protecting his partner. He made this list 5.75 hours before getting lynched, hence he probably did not expect to die. He must have felt relatively safe. He either posted this list and expected his problems to go away, or he expected to die (!?) and posted this list to throw us off on d1.
Was Shadow_God_10 trying to create/join a bandwagon?
I think what was going on in Shadow_God_10's mind was what he could create a "tie" by voting for Gold Stinger. In fact, that's what he attempted 30 mins before the lynch, but because GS was able to shift his vote, Shadow_God perished. Shadow_God could have chosen dragonmegaXX or Hateandhatred (Sanzath had a vote on H&H at that point), but Shadow_God opted for GS for some reason. I believe this was a bad decision on Shadow_God's part, because
* In my opinion, GS was much more convincing as a town during d0 than dragonmegaXX. The reason Shadow_God gave for voting GS was:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shadow_God_10
Something about you felt a little off and I was really confused here hold on...I'm gonna go back really fucking quick here
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(of course, he never came back)
* If dragonmegaXX is the wolf, Shadow_God could have taken the opportunity to distance himself from the wolf, or possibly even take credit for their lynch.
While I have my reasons to say it was a bad play, Shadow_God was probably not being careless. Do the points above suggest Shadow_God had an agenda when posting for GS?
-> If GS and dragonmegaXX were both town: Shadow_God should have voted for dragonmegaXX. It would have been much easier for him to start a bandwagon and would have probably spared his life. He should have known dragonmegaXX is not active and hadn't cast a single vote at that point, making it a smaller risk.
-> If GS is wolf: Shadow_God would be pulling a reverse psychology on us. This would mean that GS is a freaking alpha wolf for being the final nail in the coffin of his partner. This play is way too risky in my opinion. I list it here for completedness, but I don't see this happening.
-> If dragonmegaXX is wolf: Shadow_God's only way to escape elimination is to vote for the only other town in the lynch pool. Seems more probable than GS as wolf.
?? What if Shadow_God had voted for Hateandhatred? That would have been the worst case scenario for towns at d1, because there would be no new information to extract (both are dead).
My takeaway:
- This makes dragonmegaXX and Antori look bad.
- Yoshi comes out 100% Null. Again. And I don't like that.