Quote:
Originally Posted by the sun fan
so, as celery pointed out, there is a potential problem with the massclaim is TPS doesn't participate, so there's a few different things that can happen
TPS hits 10 contentful posts (I don't know where the bar is but there's no way its higher than this given blind and precarious were in the teens on d1 but didn't get the message TPS got) but never claims his role:
Lynch him. No reason for him to be the sole holdout here when it could mean the life of a blue, and we can't let a wolf get away with denying town that info.
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TPS hits 10 contentful posts, claims his role. We resolve as necessary. We probably just have a normal phase if this happens.
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TPS doesn't post any more, we expect him to be modkilled, so we lynch Freezin. There's no way to verify whether or not Freezin is telling the truth for sure if we are missing a piece, but it doesn't matter too much if TPS is getting modkilled anyway, and here's why.
Currently 9 alive, 6 town and 3 wolves looks like the most likely scenario by far.
9 alive: tps is modkilled, freezin is lynched (The modkill happens before Freezin shoots assuming he is the vengeful)
tps could be a wolf, freezin could also be a wolf (a lot less likely), and if freezin is a vengeful like he says he is, then town gets a shot at killing a wolf with his ChAoS sHoT.
What is beneath is the worst possible scenario where town can continue onwards.
If Tps is town, freezin is vengeful, then we're at 7 (4 town 3 wolves) alive, and freezin has to both shoot (he can apparently choose not to) and hit a wolf in order for the game to continue, which brings us to 6 alive, then the wolves kill a town bringing us to 5 (3 town 2 wolves), which is still workable, just not ideal.
The only scenario where town outright loses is one where TPS is town, Freezin is Vanilla Town and made a stupid play, and then town loses when the wolves make a nightkill, but this doesn't seem too likely given how early freezin was softing.
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I more or less agree with the gist of this analysis.
Freezin can't be town under the existing known seven-roll structure, since it necessitates a serial killer. We've had only one night kill the first two nights, and right now we're assuming no P or H roles, so even if a theoretical SK (a) chose 1-shot bulletproof and (b) was hit with it, we would have had two kills at least one night.
So a lot comes down to what Tps claims, given how a claim could change things mechanically. Even my case against Blind needs to be secondary, since it's still merely a case; this is an opportunity to potentially catch a wolf indisputably (I don't believe there's technically any way to fully clear anyone under this framework).
Tps' lack of a claim, much moreso than his inactivity, thus becomes an issue. Since there's no evidence to support the existence of a serial killer, 6:3 is almost certainly the current player ratio, which means the following.
1. Scum have 1 NK; this holds true no matter what the actual game conditions are.
2. Unless Tps is actually a P or H, we have no capacity to stop the NK.
Therefore,
3. A normal mislynch, with no Vengeful/Modkill/other scenarios therefore takes us to 4:3 tomorrow.
4. A normal mislynch + town modkill, or a Vengeful mislynch + Vengekill on a town player ends the game instantly.
Right now, Tps hasn't been modkilled; absent a claim, we would need to decide whether to encourage a modkill, or lynch him.
Assuming a town Tps, the modkill would reduce us to 5:3, which would force either a no lynch or a 3/8 chance of hitting scum (without yet accounting for the complication of a potential Vengeful Freezin). Lynching Town-Tps would end the day, but would take us to a 4:3 scenario tomorrow--in other words, a 3/7 chance of hitting scum. This is an improved ratio, but it could also be achieved via modkill+no lynch; additionally, any 4:3 scenario runs the risk of a single town misvote allowing the wolves to hammer.
Of those scenarios, modkill + no lynch seems the most palatable to me in a vacuum: it maximizes overall discussion time and information gain (we could still evaluate the implications of Tps' flip today), and allows us to make a decision re: Freezin. If Tps were modkilled and his flip doesn't disprove Freezin's claim, we would have to weigh the advantages of no lynch vs lynching Freezin. Modkill + NL takes us to a 4:3 tomorrow in the worst case (town-Tps) scenario; Modkill Town-Tps + Vengeful-Freezin means everything would come down to the Vengekill. If it hits scum, we would be at 3:2 tomorrow. If it doesn't, it's game over.
If Tps' flip or claim were to disprove Freezin's claim, that would obviously simplify things enormously.
The problem with looking at things in a vacuum is that ignores all prior case-building and discussion; I'd still push for a Vengekill on Blind for example, the potential extra benefit being the slight chance of catching a wolf-Freezin not exposed by a Tps flip. There are a couple possibilities at night if we go the lynch or MK+NL route, but none seem that useful, and they potentially allow for gamesmanship on the wolves' part.
Under this framework (and assuming Tps doesn't condemn Freezin), I feel like the best scenarios are, in order
1. Tps claims, ideally well before the end of the day
2. Modkill Tps + lynch Vengeful Freezin + Vengekill the most likely suspect
2(b). Modkill Tps + NL (the downside here is that if Freezin is Vengeful, it'll likely never actually get the chance to activate)
3. Lynch Tps