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Old 08-15-2019, 02:51 PM   #1335
the sun fan
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Join Date: Mar 2017
Age: 26
Posts: 402
Default Re: TWG 188: MAD17, Who's Role Is It Anyway? [GAME THREAD]

now that I'm at home, I'll talk about math a little bit

during the night phase, we had 7 alive.
Now, after the night phase, we still have 7 alive.

The latest a game can get during a day phase is 3 alive. If the game, from this point forward, continues at a normal pace, then town has 3 opportunities to find the wolf.

If, last night, a kill went through, Lar would become confirmed town, but there would be 6 alive, which is 2 opportunities to find the wolf, plus a no-lynch in f4 to force the wolf kill someone who is not clear and bring it to f3.

Both outcomes are good for town; Lar either becomes someone that is always confirmed, or someone that is always lynched.

A no-kill is not a counter that the mafia, who in this example is not lar, has to this because they give town an extra opportunity at killing the mafia and it resolves someone who was always going to be a question mark in lar

this was only possible if kayla and I targeted the same person last night because otherwise, if we target different people, mafia can potentially gain too much from no-killing
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FFR is a pretty good place somehow.
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