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Old 05-6-2005, 09:35 AM   #7
User6773
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Okay, here are just some initial thoughts .

Wolves are always random in every TWG. This means that the most imbecilic newbie has just as much of a shot of being a wolf as the most seasoned veteran. Therefore, it's usually the smartest thing to do to seer experienced players: if they come up human, integrate them into an alliance; if they come up wolf, have them killed. This has been pretty much the standard method of play since game II.

There is now a new variable in the game that requires us to rethink our strategy: the master is no longer random. If a lesser known, newbieish player happened to wind up with master wolf, it's almost guaranteed that the wolves are going to give it up to a more experienced player (who they mark.) However, if an experienced player gets master wolf due to random chance, it's unlikely that he would give it up to a newbie.

The master wolf is good for absolutely nothing unless he gets seered. This means that out of the two people (original master wolf and mark), the master wolf is GOING to be the one of them who is more likely to be seered. So let's look at all the possible scenarios here:

1) Original master = newbie, mark = experienced, new master = experienced
2) Original master = experienced, mark = experienced, new master = experienced

I think it's a fair assumption that the mark is an experienced player...I don't think the wolves would want to jeopardize their chances by recruiting a lesser known or inexperienced player.

This means two things for us:
1) We should assume that at least one of the wolves - probably the master wolf - is an experienced player.
2) The seer should NOT SEER experienced players.

The second one is a bit trickier to understand. If a person comes back human, that's not a definite reading, but if a person comes back wolf, you know 100% they're a wolf. Since everyone has an equal shot at being a regular plain vanilla wolf, but experienced players are more likely to be master, that means that randomly picking people - especially lesser known players - is probably going to come up with wolves better than only going after experienced players.

In a nutshell, we're far more likely to get false positives seering experienced players. It's probably best to go down the list and think "Who wouldn't the wolves pick to be marked?" Flypie, Mead, Neonatrias, TPS, Matthew, and Spheroid pop out immediately as unlikely masters...but seer, it's up to you to try and figure out who the wolves wouldn't pick, and go after them. Your chances of nabbing a wolf are far, far greater - and you can integrate the players you recruit into the alliance with far greater certainty.

If this is a game that's going to be won by an alliance of newbies, so be it. Of course, I'd still prefer to be around when it's over, of course