This is quite an important topic for FFR difficulty computation. I've spent a lot of time thinking about it. That being said, I think a major factor component to not forget is what exactly is meant by "cheesing" a pattern. It seems in this context you're purely defining it as:
"Maximizing average note distance (in time) + maximizing the number of jumps (or minimizing the number of hits per hand)"
This definition sadly will never apply in practice, since it doesn't consider what I believe is probably the most important thing: one-handed complexity. Your FotBB is a
Great example of how that applies; I would almost always argue that on a one hand basis only (spread playstyle implied), 1212 [12] 1212 [12] is harder than 121212121212 and [12] [12] [12] [12] [12] [12]. The change from trill motion to jack motion is, imo, not something that can be left out if we're gonna talk "cheese".
When going down the rabbit hole of making the above definition as accurate as possible, I think it often boils down to setting some baseline of what the majority of people think is easier to hit legit and what isn't. From there, you can start building a more robust definition. The hard part of course is deciding what the smallest building block of your system is, and their possible relationships (mathematically). For example, your smallest block could be a simple tuple of consecutive notes on the same hand (1 [12], 2 1, [12] [12], etc), a more complex n-tuple on same hand, a tuple that includes both hands (12, 24, [13][23], [123]3, etc), and so on. That decision I think will likely need to be backed up with stats on what the body can do at what speeds on average (compared to enough statistical data from the vsrg population), and that's just a full on research project.
Fwiw, I tend to believe that one hand side 4-tuples are pretty robust blocks as they include most hand motions and aren't a massive list (2^4=16 possible blocks). There's more to it than just that, but just keepin it short here.
So, to answer your question:
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With perfect pattern manipulation skills, what is the minimum speed a player must have in order to AAA most of the game?
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I think there's no answer to this as long as "perfect manipulation skills" isn't well defined.