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Old 07-4-2023, 01:56 PM   #8
the sun fan
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Join Date: Mar 2017
Age: 29
Posts: 444
Default Re: TWG 206: Betrayal at House on the Hill POSTGAME

I want to give just a bit of math for the people who were talking about not voting anyone during the day phase being the best idea. Ignoring the rule and placing ourselves in a hypothetical game where it is an option to kill no one, lets do some math.

(It is important that this game begins with an odd number of players and begins with a day phase, rather than a night phase. Almost all games run on FFR will follow this formula)
9 players, day start. No possibility of blocking the wolf kill at night.
9 players into 9 players after killing no one during the day.
8 players after wolves kill a town.
8 players into 8
8 players into 7
7 players into 7
7 players into 6
6 players into 6
6 players into 5; 3 town versus 2 wolves (I'll talk about the seer possibilities below)

In this scenario, town doesn't kill someone at all until they have to according to the math. Town exchanges the ability to kill two players for making the wolves reveal four players as town, gradually. The seer begins the game with the knowledge of a random town player's innocence, and gets a maximum of four chances to investigate a player's alignment.

If the seer holds onto their information until final 5, they run the risk of getting counterclaimed and losing the battle. Even if they have a treasure trove of information, town can still lose because of a coordinated attack by the wolves. This can also happen earlier in the game if the seer claims, but in this scenario, town loses by killing the seer, whereas earlier town is able to kill a wolf immediately after
I'm completely ignoring a townie other than the seer claiming seer don't make this any harder than it has to be please don't do that

so, lets say they claim in final 7 instead, giving town two chances of killing a wolf. wolves can counterclaim if they feel like it, but they aren't likely priced into it. This is a little better for town, they have a bit more flexibility, and there's even a chance that a seer can deliver town an auto-win in this situation by giving town three greens plus themselves as the fourth confirmed.

Or, what about just killing no one on the first day, then killing people after that? The first day is when town has no information, right? Wouldn't it be better to sleep and use the information that wolves give town by confirming a member as town?

So, why is this a sub-optimal strategy?

In short, town has ONE and only one way of killing wolves, voting for them during the day. If town takes every opportunity to do this, they have at least three chances before they could lose the game by voting incorrectly three times in a row, and a maximum of four chances with the fourth being in a final three, the lowest number of players that can exist in a twg game.

These chances for town are sacred, and losing one represents a huge swing against town's chances of winning the game. Even if town sleeps the first day, AND the seer investigates a wolf at night, AND the wolves don't kill the seer that night, town still sacrificed a chance to kill the wolves, and this is almost always worse than taking that chance, especially early in the game.
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TWG Stats: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

FFR is a pretty good place somehow.
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