Quote:
Originally Posted by FreezinIce
alright time to do some work
=====
flashflash account (5) - fatfuck42, DaBackpack, Shadow_God_10, TWGma, Ulleabhara
Ulleabhara (4) - Xiz, FreezinIce, mellonxcollie, Funnygurl555
TWGma (2) - YoshL, Hakulyte
DaBackpack (1) - the sun fan
------
Not Voting (1): flashflash account
====
I moved Ulli's vote to FFA because for all intents and purposes thats where it was.
Now,for a wagon analysis you'd ideally like to have 1 red flip to really start being able to draw conclusions. The fact that both the top wagons are definitively town is also not great. So this is more to organize my thoughts than anything.
You have 2 major groups that emerge from this EoD:
>People who have took a side on FFA vs Ulli
>People who stayed out of it for various reasons
from a wolfs pov as a human vs human interaction with no stakes in the outcome, i would bet the safer play would be to stay out compared to weigh in.
So i think that there is likely a wolf in the following group of people who stayed out of the EoD clusterfuck (Sunfan, YoshiL, Haku).
I think law of averages puts a wolf in the other group as well, so the trick now is finding which of those votes looks the most out of place.
(20 Mins later)
Well i reread eod a few times and theres and this is what i have
Good:
>DBP had an actual reason for his vote that made sense
>Xiz had an actual reason for his vote that made sense
>Mellos vote made sense because you could see the thought process that led to her finally settling on Ulli
???:
>Fg voted plop then ulli. I read the explanation that someone else gave for why she did it and was like "ok w/e"
>Plop started the FFA Wagon, dunno if thats good or bad, he was kind of slow burning on FFA then this comes out of nowhere
Bad
shadow moved his vote like 28945432879 times
tforce materialized a vote from nowhere on FFA
So 2nd wolf can be within (FG/Subaru, Plop, Shadow, Tforce)
3rd wolf could be in either of those groups
Dont think DBP is wolfing
Dont think Mello is wolfing
After resetting and actually thinking about the game, those are my only 2 ride or die townreads, everyone else is on the table.
Stay tuned for part 2 coming whenever i feel like it
|
I like the work here, and I would agree with the conclusion of one wolf on each section (trains vs. non), but I'd also wonder if there'd be one on each:
one on FFA, one on Ulle, and one non.
To borrow from Freezin:
flashflash account (5) - fatfuck42, DaBackpack, Shadow_God_10, TWGma,
Ulleabhara
Ulleabhara (4) -
Xiz,
FreezinIce, mellonxcollie, Funnygurl555
TWGma (2) - YoshL, Hakulyte
DaBackpack (1) - the sun fan
Party 1:
Plop, DBP, Shadow, myself, Ulle.
Ulle is automatically removed for obvious reasons.
Shadow I think is fine with this vote.
DBP's is also for pressure purposes, iirc, but isn't too bad.
Plop's and mine I'd argue look at worst as Plop's is the starting one, and mine has the worst reasoning behind it in comparison.
However, I've noticed that wolves like leaving early votes on wagons if it looks like they can gain traction and this coincides nicely with my read on Plop.
Party 2:
Xiz, Freezin, Raeko, Funnygurl
Xiz is excluded.
Raeko's is also fine based on her inclination and defense of this vote, so I feel this is genuine. Plus, the timing isn't bad as it's still a pressure vote instead of thrown about trying tom get it to stick.
Freezin and FG.
FG's vote was a last second preserve vote to throw them into KITB.
The flips show that there wasn't much of a partner save, but I re-iterate my post on relationships and I think FG just wanted FFA around for defense purposes.
As for Freezin's, let me find this... once the forums stop being a cheesecake.
Yeah, seemed to be natural progression. Plus emphasizing the vote the way he did is also interesting because I don't think a wolf would want to draw that much attention if/when the target flips town.
FG just looks bad here.
Party 3:
FFA, YoshL, Haku, sunfan
FFA is exempt.
YoshL's vote I've already covered in a prior breakdown last day, and I still feel that way about it.
Haku's looked the worst to me for a blatant sheep and no reasoning to it, but then not moving it when other wagons got traction. And we know Haku was in the thread, so I can't give him the benefit of not being around like sunfan.
However, Haku's play afterwards makes me think this was just a town flailing trying to follow their best town read's play at the time.
sunfan's vote is an early pressure and then he left.
It should also be noted, he did state in post #441 that he'd swap back to me if he returned, but I do wonder if that really would be the case considering the wagons at the time.
Regardless, this one is a toss-up for me because IRL situations are just purely NAI. However, POE puts it at the forefront for this exercise.
So to pick a wolf from each party, I'd have to say: Plop, FG/Subaru, and sunfan.
Also, re-reading there, I stumbled across this nugget.
Quote:
Originally Posted by FreezinIce
T force getting votes
Ok?????????????
|
Freezin, why were you surprised at the votes on me then?
Did you think that I was a town and surprised that I was getting voted? Or did you not like the reasoning? I'm curious.