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Old 08-28-2018, 05:58 PM   #2957
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Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: THE END ZONE
Age: 31
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

This is how I view it:

5 left, Cel and I are town. InD/Funny/Blind are the other 3, 2 of them are SK/Scum. If we lynch one of those 3 correctly today, we will have a 2v1 with either Cel or myself alive tomorrow assuming one of us two are night killed and I don't hide. That means that tomorrow we have a 50 50 shot at picking the correct person and winning.

If we lynch incorrectly today, it will be Cel/Myself and then SK/Wolf, who then have to decide if they want to go after one another or Cel/Myself. If they go after each other then we obviously win. if the wolf goes after Cel or I, they're risking the SK killing them and them for all purposes losing. If the SK goes after one of us, he risks the wolf killing them and them losing. If they both go after Cel and myself and hit us each, then they get a 1v1 draw, which in my mind is a pretty lame result. All of their options result in either a loss or draw, unless they either both hit the same target or one abstains from killing, this would create a 2v1 where they would hope the other gets lynched to win with a 1-1 ratio. Lynching incorrectly is the worst situation of the three described here imo.

If we no-lynch today, we will create a situation where the wolf and SK won't be able to know who each other are for sure, and this will greatly increase our odds of them hitting one another. The chance of them both targeting cel or I at the same time would create a draw scenario, but if either one of them gets hit then we have a 2v1 scenario the next day. This is our best option if we aren't confident with getting a correct lynching today.

In the three scenarios I described above we have a pretty good chance to get the SK/Wolf to at least night kill one of each other in the no-lynch scenario or win with a coin-flip vote if we lynch correctly today. Please let me know if I'm missing a scenario here or if my math is off.
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