View Single Post
Old 04-6-2021, 10:02 PM   #771
tn5421
FFR Player
 
tn5421's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Age: 35
Posts: 12
Default Re: TWG 199: The Reaper's Game -Final Remix- GAME THREAD

Please take my reads with a grain of salt. I almost always have one "deepwolf" in my townreads. It's statisically significant, or would be if I cared to actually collect the statistics.

I am also 100% shotgunning this out of the window. I am only going to check to make sure my own name isn't flipped beforehand, so this post will not take into account the N2 Nightkill.


At the time of writing, the flip has not been revealed. We are currently 8 town / 2 wolf, but will almost inevitably be reduced to 7 town / 2 wolf in the next hour.

Worst possible play from this point:
wolfs yeet a pr before d3 start, we yeet town d3, wolf yeet the other pr n3
starts d4 with 5 town / 2 wolf
another town/town day on day 4
starts d5 with 3 town / 2 wolf


Depending on who gets hit by the wolfkill, we can probably afford to take it easy today. There are certainly a few factors I'd like to take a look at that have become apparent due to the red flip.

Votecount Analysys stuff:

@Charu: You are aware at how incredibly scummy you look for unvoting the flipped scum during the 11th hour, right? It could almost certainly be taken as outright proof of your scum-hood, in fact. One hopes you have a sufficiently convincing explanation for this; I for one would like to hear it.

@everyone: Everyone else that didn't vote Freezin mostly stuck to their guns, which isn't particularly easy to read around for me. Bah @ you guys.
Does anyone know if FreezinIce is the type of person to long bus their partner? They were voting the sun fan most of the day, and conventional wisdom says that either Freezin was hoping the ML would pick up steam, or suspected they would die today and wanted their scumbuddy to pick up towncred for being voted by a flipped wolf.

I'm not interested in looking at flashflash_account or roundbox today. Without their last minute help, this would be a completely different day. I am aware there may be alternate motivations. I don't care.


Post stuff:

I have this idea of a Charu / Mellon_Collie / FreezinIce scum team.

Mellon_collie looks terrible today. This should not need explanation. They hard shaded my push against flipped scum.

I don't have a whole lot of time to go over Freezin's interactions in detail if I want this post to be ready right out of the gate, but I remember them being reluctant to vote Charu. mellon_collie, however, did claim they 'wanted' to vote Charu but swapped last minute to vote me instead, an attempt to leverage "deadline madness" to get rid of the primary person pushing scum.

Bugkid is iffy for me. Townier if he tried to vote Freezin and simply didn't see EOD. Scummier if he knew EOD had happened and threw in a virtue signalling vote.

FFR I'm pretty comfortable leaving as town. They were rightfully reluctant to follow when it appeared I was AtEing. Props for that.

Hakulyte seemed to be shorter on their trademark logic towards the end of day. I'm not sure they were even available. I'm not sure that I like that they weren't really 'here' during the most critical part of the game. Still a townread, but not almost unconditional as it was before.



I ran out of time, so the rest of you can wait XDDDDD
__________________
he/him, adhd sufferer, bad at rhythm games

Quote:
Originally Posted by lord_carbo View Post
Good opinions are facts, stop making it seem like they aren't.
tn5421 is offline