[star-crossed]

So I think this is basically everything Curry said about kills, night actions, SK suspicions, as well as posts related to anybody who is still alive. I want to figure out who the mafia most likely killed and blocked, and whether he knew who the SK was (or was just guessing).

d0

Originally Posted by Curry and Rice

"Finding SK shouldn't be a D0 thing. It should get easier and more clear after the first wave of NK/SK kill/PR shots.

It's more of a D2 thing imo." -- Haku
If the third party is super obvious (or at least seems to be), there's no reason not to go after them, but otherwise (in any normal D0 situation), I completely agree.

be back later

d1

Originally Posted by Curry and Rice

frick

Two specials dead, but also one wolf dead? Not sure it's the best trade, but at least we're somewhere.

also i was totally going to push a lynch on manti for trying to save noc but i guess that ain't happening lol


Also, Zoshi and Cel are probably human, but there's also a slight chance either of them could be the third party. For now I'll give both of them a pass.

Originally Posted by Curry and Rice

I don't usually know Olimar to be the inactive type. While it's entirely possible he's trying to slip under the radar because the number of people who know him this game is relatively low, I'm guessing there's some other outside reason why he hasn't posted much.

Originally Posted by Curry and Rice

"lmao k roundbox is probably much better suited as a wolf than sk. Is ffa/roundbox/funny sounding ok ??

Mellon/olimar for sk" --Zoshi
Fair thoughts, except I'd probably add Xel in there somewhere.

Originally Posted by Curry and Rice

I mean, I've given my thoughts in bits and pieces, but doesn't hurt to say more:

roundbox: Current vote; pleased with the thoughts he's given, but I don't know if he's just trying to save himself or genuinely getting into gear.

raeko: Past vote; still not sure about her, could be a vote in the future if I still have a bad feeling on her.

Xel: Could probably be a wolf? Maybe serial killer? Some things like roundbox's "xel is hottest mislynch 2018 for the 6th game in a row" and inD's "derp clearing xel" give me a little more hesitation but I could still vote for him.

Funny: I'd be ok with this lynch, but don't know if I'd change my vote to support it. idk; would be a helpful cardflip probably i guess and there's a "better than most" chance she's actually a wolf/third party

d2

Originally Posted by Curry and Rice

Also, at this point, I'm gonna take a guess and say that either the third party/Claire is inactive (or rather, inactive enough to where they might conceivably miss a kill), or by some extremely unlikely chance, either or both of them have been roleblocked, preventing their kills from going through.

Originally Posted by Curry and Rice

My best guess is that the wolves blocked someone, saw that there were only two kills, then decided to block the same person. Not sure why they wouldn't find more kills to be beneficial, but maybe they were trying to play it safe after Noc was lynched.

Originally Posted by Curry and Rice

roundbox (MOST LIKELY WOLF PICK)
Olimar (MOST LIKELY SK PICK)
Xelnya
celirra
Star
Zoshi
InD
is it vain if i put myself as most town

Originally Posted by Curry and Rice

"So you think haku being vigi’d is possible?

I guess Mellon being sk’d and vigi’d is possible, but I think a block is more likely" --Zoshi
Eh, I kind of think Manti trying to make a vote to seemingly save a wolf might ring an alarm bell in a vigi, perhaps?

Originally Posted by Curry and Rice

Speaking of reads, reads list is pretty much the same but with Xel instead of Olimar.

d3

Originally Posted by Curry and Rice

Unless there's some super weird stuff going on and the wolf and third party just so happened to hit the same person, I'm going to take a guess and say that this sets up Olimar as anti-town.

Originally Posted by Curry and Rice

If there had been three kills in the past, I would say it was possible that either the wolf hit the third party (with one-shot bulletproof) or the third party hit the wolf (also with one-shot bulletproof), but honestly, how likely is that at this point?

Originally Posted by Curry and Rice

Roundbox I can buy, but Star is pretty much just a paranoia pick. The only way I can see that is if Star decided to carry on the guise of an inactive sk because psycho was inactive, with the additional benefit of framing Olimar, but honestly, I think it would be more beneficial for Star to just kill anyway and pretend like the earlier lack of kills were just flukes. But it would make more sense if it was just Olimar being inactive from the very beginning. His sudden appearance is kind of odd too, but eh. Though, at the same time, Star seeming to double down with posting to try and ensure not being lynched is kind of concerning, in the same kind of strange paranoid gut feeling way.

Originally Posted by Curry and Rice

"hey, why do you have this conclusion? who is the other anti-town? why is Olimar the definitive anti-town from your POV?" --rb
Like I explained in my post above, a lack of a second kill would most logically imply that either the sk was inactive (Olimar), or pretending to be inactive (Star, to continue on with psycho's inactivity), the latter of which is kind of hard to believe.

Other anti-town is probably you. Olimar being a wolf is less likely (since if there was an active sk there would've likely been three kills on at least one prior phase), thus he's probably the serial killer.

Originally Posted by Curry and Rice

i mean

logically who else could the third party be

Originally Posted by Curry and Rice

My main point about that was that if Psycho was inactive and missed a kill, Star wouldn't want to make a kill because it would be pretty obvious who the third party was then. LIKE I SAID, though, that's probably the less likely scenario over Olimar simply being third party.

Originally Posted by Curry and Rice

PART 1:

Looking back, I think roundbox not voting to save FFA was because he thought that he would probably be lynched anyway the next day and didn't want it to be obvious that he was trying to save his partner. In light of the funny wagon and flip, he looks even worse from that, and his comments/reactions at the beginning of the day after that didn't help either (calling the game a "dumpster fire" and complaining about how the "game is proceeding in SK's favour" reads like venting after his partner died).

Originally Posted by Curry and Rice

PART 2:


In terms of posting and other more recent stuff, he was kind of coasting until being called out for it, then picked up dramatically after that (especially after raeko was vigi'd; possibly trying to pick up the pace hoping for a Hail Mary victory?) with variable amounts of relevant content. Spent too much time complaining about bad lynches instead of actually doing anything to stop those lynches (both with funny and Xel, and arguably a little bit with FFA before he was actually lynched and cardflipped) and was/is semi-OMGUS'ing me, neither of which really lean in his favor.

Originally Posted by Curry and Rice

Cel's disappearance is a bit concerning. Like, he should be here right now posting stuff, unless he's just given up which is honestly silly if he's a human.

Originally Posted by Curry and Rice

"my wariness about curry is that he isn't doing much to investigate other players this phase as all of his energy has been concentrated on me

he's responded to star about some things but his lack of considering other possible worlds in this game is frustrating and suspect at the same time" --rb
I mean, I have Olimar pegged as sk, with Star as a paranoid pick. The only other person to investigate would be Cel.