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Old 06-25-2019, 01:02 PM   #407
MarioNintendo
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Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Montreal, QC
Age: 31
Posts: 4,122
Default Re: jTWG LXXXIV: 8 New Players and Raeko Game Thread

Thought #3 : There's only one wolf left
I think this is the first time I'm in a game where there's only one wolf left standing. This got me thinking about how the mechanics change from this point on. The wolf is now unable to communicate with a teammate, both in the thread or in the secret wolf chat. This got me thinking.

We are all town except for one wold
This is a big change in mechanics. Fewer moving parts. The wolf has no possibility to vote or distance themself from their wolf partner from this point on. The only way a wolf can look good right now is by:
* Providing believable town reads (which should be easy, because the wolf knows anyone and everyone around them is town)
* Arguing a townie out of a lynch (which will always happen if they try)

I think "town reading" each other will give us a false sense of security. If I was a wolf on d1, I would try to make as little waves as possible: being invisible. It's easier to do this by "town reading" people than by "wolf reading" them. I think the wolf will still do their best to jump on a mislynch bus, but on d1 it seems risky.

This is why I delayed my posting a bit, I didn't want to overly influence the wolf's strategy.

Conclusion: To find the wolf this phase, I'll look at users who are
* easy going
* making obvious town reads (possibly to get people to agree with them and find them not menacing)

... I'll also be looking at people who seem to change personality after this specific post.

[b]How can a lonely wolf earn town's trust?
The wolf is in a tough position:
* All of their "town reads" will be correct
* ... But all of their "wolf reads" will be wrong

Thus, I believe the wolf will make as little reads as possible, not to leave any traces (especially if, after reading my Thought #2, we think we're dealing with a wolf who cares about slips).

I think that, if pressured, this wolf will give reads, possibly on all current players, but with no pressure, I don't see an incentive for them to give some bs reads (unless they are veteran, planned ahead and did exactly this). I also think that this post will influence the wolf's behavior, so I'll stay on the lookout for this.
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