05-2-2020, 08:34 PM
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#2751
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FFR Player
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: On a life-size Flat Earth model
Posts: 149
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Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
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Originally Posted by DaBackpack
No because you're not considering the actual statistical distribution of setups in the entire game. What's the standard deviation? It might be the case that TTTT is the "mean" set of T rolls, but even though the literal probability of TT is off by 25x, that 25x difference doesn't mean anything until you do a more comprehensive analysis and contextualize it against the other T-rolls. For example, TT is more likely than TTTTTTT and TTTTTT. So yeah, TTTT is more likely than TT but not in a meaningful way-- it's still like the 3rd-4th most likely outcome if you roll the entire setup
you can prove this with Monte-Carlo simulation if you want to
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I mean, you're not wrong with this but it's irrelevant because I'm not focusing on just the TT vs TTTT. The more important change is BBB vs just B.
That's why I calculated probability for the two likeliest setups given the existing claims, in full, instead of just comparing TTTT/TT or BBB/B.
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Originally Posted by Hakulyte
I followed the "by the book" play, but I was reading the "not to do" page.
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Originally Posted by XelNya
" I'd suck a dick in a dark, dark alley."
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Originally Posted by YoshL
"i gave you 20 ducks, and spent a lot of time making one of them quack, and pointed at the particular one and asked "is that one the worst quacker"" ... "you could still give somewhat of an answer based on the quality of the quacks, and the other random quacks from the ducks surrounding that weren't the center of focus."
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Originally Posted by mellon_collie
"I love Wolfe's duck avi so much. Shado's Duck Shrine is the best!!
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