[DaBackpack]

Originally Posted by FreezinIce

first things first, i look at what bolth was saying (with a slight preference on EoD), then see who would benefit most from his death

*He was on the Xiz wagon at EoD so it could possibly be a play to make everyone else on the wagon look worse

Everyone who isnt DBP, storn, Freezin, Gradiant and me would benefit from that.

*Haku voted for bolth so I dont think he would benefit from his cardflip that much but to offset that Bolth was heavily suspecting Haku near the end. So ill cancel them out

so we have Fatfuck, MML, Roundbox, Raeko, Shadow, Psycho, Haku left.

*Checking the post history, bolth really doesnt have that many stand out opinions or pushes anyone hard so its hard to see any landmines he might've stepped on so no points here.

*The next point is contentious but i really doubt a wolf would kill off a scumlean when its hard enough to make a case against someone when you know everyone's alignment. So i will exclude anyone who was suspicious of bolth or had him wolf leaned on their last reads list. (Unrelated point but Bolth was null on quite a lot of lists)

That take off Haku again, and to an extent shadow and MML, but they were suspecting bolth but not scum leaning so ill add them to a tier below who is left

So what we have left is:

Roundbox, Raeko, Fatfuck, Psycho as the people who would benefit most from bolth dying, and Shadow / MML making up a tier below them.

ATM i cant really think of any other tests to narrow the pool but im sure ill come up with something later

OK there's at least something here

how reliable do you think any of this is? It seems really dangerous to make fast-and-loose conclusions about a nightkill in a closed setup

If bolt was a simple wolf kill then I'm inclined to just assume he was a safe target that would never be doctor saved