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Old 12-18-2017, 12:10 AM   #1265
Wineandbread
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Default Re: TWG CLXXIV - Sounds Like You've got a Problem. - Game Thread

Last post before slep, I'm just gonna post about setup now since my credibility is shot
Roles we know: M(xel), V(star), D(sf)

So let's break down scum role potential:
5-7 T are impossible
2T, 4T are possible (no SK)
1T, 3T are possible (SK)
0T is possible but statistically pretty hard to roll. Then again, RNG is RNG. Anyway it's not that important. What is important is that 4T, 2T and 0T all have 3 mafia with a scum roleblocker.

In the case for 4T setup is solved, 4T - M - V - D
In the case for 2T we have 2T - M - V - D - x - x . Sf wasn't saved last night so DDD is virtually impossible (esp. with scum roleblocker gone), DD is possible where the 1-shot already saved. Otherwise, MM/VV are impossible, MMM/VVV are possible, and any combination of B and C are possible.
Not going to bother with 0T because it's a rare pepe.

In the case of 3T/1T, SK is in the game.
3T - M - V - D - x, where x = B/C/D, a possibility for sure.
1T - M - V - D - x - x - x is hard to consider right now but that ends up in a lot of blue roles.. It's also on towards the ends statistically.

Honestly now that I think about it, as SK not killing is a viable strategy because it can throw town in for a loop if they're trying to solve setup. I guess you're gambling not getting shot/copped, but it's easier to feign town than wolves. Though I'm not too sure about how that fares endgame.

I still feel like the setup is 4T though, but I don't want to detract from the possibility of an SK existing
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