[alainbryden]

There would probably have to be at least one good player out of the 4 wolves, but that theory probably works either way. In history, though, it doesn't help much to identify why whoever got wolfed first did. It's usually just what you said, the best possible player that wouldn't be considered for guardianing. It doesn't really give away anything as to who the wolves could be. I think the best strategy is to vote for whoever is not talking the first night, which is always a fair enough strategy, because there's always one or two wolves that are hesitant to talk much, and then after that the real information always comes from watching how people react to who is getting lynched and for what reasons.