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-   -   TWG 194 - Game Thread (http://www.flashflashrevolution.com/vbz/showthread.php?t=151853)

Hakulyte 05-2-2020 08:34 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
I also need to think at MML/DBP being W/W now.

DaBackpack 05-2-2020 08:34 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe (Post 4729042)
I think it's nearly impossible wolves send in a no-kill if the claims are to be believed.

With that said, I think DBP is almost always a wolf here

why???

ShadoWolfe 05-2-2020 08:35 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
I'm VT too btw

Hakulyte 05-2-2020 08:36 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
Yeah, I need the VT count to see which group as too many of each.

leetic 05-2-2020 08:37 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by DaBackpack (Post 4729014)
so from my understanding the setup is

VCBBBTT

TT = Role Cop + Roleblocker + Godfather

which is consistent with the Xiz roleblock

But consider the possibility that the setup is VCBTTTT. That would be the same setup, but with the one shot rolecop. It does also look like a more typical setup. So is that consistent with what we saw?

Under 4T scenario, scum would have had to know Mikey's claim was fake. That leaves the question of why scum would fakeclaim under this scenario, as they chose a fakeclaim that would work under the setup.

Quote:

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar (Post 4728495)
.....i

I just realized how much of a fucking spaz I am

I hardclaim roleblocker

I blocked FFA and Bolth, but didn't act on FFA d2 because i figured Xiz was lying and i mighta been wolf blocked. This phase i totally forgot that FFA would have gotten "no results" on his check on me and couldnt claim i waa town, I kinda forgot i chose him over leetic if I am being honest

I mighta just thrown the game

Possibility: Bolth was the Rolecop, saved his shots N1, and was roleblocked N2. Thus, scum would have known the existence of a town roleblocker in the setup. Based on timing, DBP's claim could be a calculated move.

More likely possibility: DBP is the scum roleblocker, decided to claim just to try and save himself, as he was near insta twice, including when he made the claim. He was fully not expecting to survive the phase, and the fact that his claim lined up with a possibility is a lucky accident.

MixMasterLar 05-2-2020 08:37 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by DaBackpack (Post 4729040)
is it just because you picked Haku? I'm wondering which of the two of us the wolf roleblocker would prioritize here

I think it's safe to assume that one of us was roleblocked last night, which means that only one of our roleblocks actually went through

A few reasons

I was starting to have doubts abput Haku last phase and Dusk started trending a little up for me.

Haku is also pretty well townread and in the world where wolves know they can only block one of two, they chose most townread of thd bunch. Unless the team is legit Dusk/Bolth/Jessie picking Dusk seems like youre asking to be blocked (i even considered it, but figured you probably would and thinking think stacking would be idea)

Haku more or less went straight for "oh it was no kill" instead of a bunch of random theories that also include "roleblockers blocked some roles" and thats slightly sus

I dont recall Haku townreading Dusk as hard as he seems to, although i mighta missed that post

leetic 05-2-2020 08:40 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
MML, are you 100% certain DBP's claim is real?

Hakulyte 05-2-2020 08:40 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
I don't even care about the roleblocks right now.

If you're town you got meme'd.
If you're wolf, you're trying to end it with 2 blocks on townies.

Priority should be to lock the setup.

MixMasterLar 05-2-2020 08:40 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by leetic (Post 4729048)

More likely possibility: DBP is the scum roleblocker, decided to claim just to try and save himself, as he was near insta twice, including when he made the claim. He was fully not expecting to survive the phase, and the fact that his claim lined up with a possibility is a lucky accident.

Man that's absolutely the devil's own luck there though.

ShadoWolfe 05-2-2020 08:41 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by DaBackpack (Post 4729045)
why???

idk? let's say it's a strong feeling for now
the convenient claim of blocking FFA
the two thunderdomes with confirmed towns (though granted their shitty plays were not your fault)
the lack of classic DBP oomph
the general feeling of fuckery in game state and you being one of two names on this list I feel would be able to pull it off

don't worry, I'm not gonna go balls to the walls tunnelvision, it just makes the most sense to me rn wrt a solve

ShadoWolfe 05-2-2020 08:42 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by leetic (Post 4729048)
More likely possibility: DBP is the scum roleblocker, decided to claim just to try and save himself, as he was near insta twice, including when he made the claim. He was fully not expecting to survive the phase, and the fact that his claim lined up with a possibility is a lucky accident.

yes this

MixMasterLar 05-2-2020 08:43 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by leetic (Post 4729050)
MML, are you 100% certain DBP's claim is real?

No, i would feel better saying that after full claims at this point. For both FFA and DBP to not be roles throws the setup in mad question.

I'm like 90% sure he's town though. Even without claims i think we've been seeing his town game. I dont think its smart to doubt the claim

ShadoWolfe 05-2-2020 08:44 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar (Post 4729056)
No, i would feel better saying that after full claims at this point. For both FFA and DBP to not be roles throws the setup in mad question.

I'm like 90% sure he's town though. Even without claims i think we've been seeing his town game. I dont think its smart to doubt the claim

this is like the 3rd time I remember you mentioning setup would be "short" a PR if he's scum

can you explain that to me?

leetic 05-2-2020 08:46 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar (Post 4729056)
No, i would feel better saying that after full claims at this point. For both FFA and DBP to not be roles throws the setup in mad question.

I'm like 90% sure he's town though. Even without claims i think we've been seeing his town game. I dont think its smart to doubt the claim

It wouldn't actually throw the setup into question, VCBTTTT is more reasonable than VCBBBTT

DaBackpack 05-2-2020 08:47 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by leetic (Post 4729048)
But consider the possibility that the setup is VCBTTTT. That would be the same setup, but with the one shot rolecop. It does also look like a more typical setup. So is that consistent with what we saw?

Under 4T scenario, scum would have had to know Mikey's claim was fake. That leaves the question of why scum would fakeclaim under this scenario, as they chose a fakeclaim that would work under the setup.



Possibility: Bolth was the Rolecop, saved his shots N1, and was roleblocked N2. Thus, scum would have known the existence of a town roleblocker in the setup. Based on timing, DBP's claim could be a calculated move.

More likely possibility: DBP is the scum roleblocker, decided to claim just to try and save himself, as he was near insta twice, including when he made the claim. He was fully not expecting to survive the phase, and the fact that his claim lined up with a possibility is a lucky accident.

for this world you would have to believe that either Haku is my wolf partner and he got blocked or that I deliberately sent-in a no-kill and made an unnecessary gamble that relied on MML not targeting any of my wolf partners

and you would have to believe that I picked a single-letter fakeclaim instead of the safer double-letter fakeclaim and that I would be willing to sacrifice myself that phase even if I knew mechanically that Mikey was lying and didn't have to fakeclaim at all?

and also that I fake softed roleblocker as early as D0 and nothing else, which is the same as committing to a potential 1-letter role which was way more dangerous than a 2-letter role (again)

MixMasterLar 05-2-2020 08:49 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe (Post 4729058)
this is like the 3rd time I remember you mentioning setup would be "short" a PR if he's scum

can you explain that to me?

Well Leetic is saying i'm wrong

Quote:

Originally Posted by leetic (Post 4729059)
It wouldn't actually throw the setup into question, VCBTTTT is more reasonable than VCBBBTT

Buuuut my understanding is that if we didnt have another PR then we would likely have an SK?
And we aint got no SK at this point.

But if leetic is right then womp womp. I guess its a decision i have to make with gut on how i feel DBP has played

MixMasterLar 05-2-2020 08:50 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
DBP,you softed d0? I didnt even notice

Links?

ShadoWolfe 05-2-2020 08:51 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar (Post 4729061)
Well Leetic is saying i'm wrong



Buuuut my understanding is that if we didnt have another PR then we would likely have an SK?
And we aint got no SK at this point.

But if leetic is right then womp womp. I guess its a decision i have to make with gut on how i feel DBP has played

leetic's right. the odds actually favor one of you guys being a liar

and four Ts still means no serial killer, which seems likely at this point

ShadoWolfe 05-2-2020 08:52 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by DaBackpack (Post 4729060)
and also that I fake softed roleblocker as early as D0 and nothing else, which is the same as committing to a potential 1-letter role which was way more dangerous than a 2-letter role (again)

where'd you soft roleblocker D0?

DaBackpack 05-2-2020 08:52 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by leetic (Post 4729059)
It wouldn't actually throw the setup into question, VCBTTTT is more reasonable than VCBBBTT

25% outcome vs. 1% outcome is effectively the same, statistically, because of how the game is rolled


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