Originally Posted by Duskfall (Post 4728328)

you don't clear vts because all the mafia claim vt, you clear the pr as they get shot and/or roleblocked

You can clear vts if there are not enough vts in the setup which makes a setup inherently unbalanced

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe (Post 4728327)

Is your read on Haku mainly cause of his posts right now, or is there something that specifically pings you?

Why me?

Also I can't get a good read on bolth, can you talk to me about him generally please?
Also thanks for following up

Originally Posted by flashflash account (Post 4728323)

if I'm being honest I don't think we're winning the game even with the red on dbp

Originally Posted by Hakulyte (Post 4728330)

You're saying the opposite of what I said in first part, but you're right on 2nd part.

Originally Posted by Duskfall (Post 4728333)

yes i am saying the opposite because i complete oppose your argument, so i beleive the opposite is true compared to what you are saying

Originally Posted by Hakulyte (Post 4728334)

Ah, you got gamed. You said the same as me in a different way.

Originally Posted by Duskfall (Post 4728336)

You want: to full claim because it clears vts

I want: not fullclaim because it clears prs, but not vts and gets prs killed

what are you talking about?

Originally Posted by Hakulyte (Post 4728339)

It doesn't clear PRs. It just force a 50/50.

PRs will die anyway because wolves know who is real at that point.

Originally Posted by Duskfall (Post 4728331)

yeah for haku read, seems to be trying to bait the massclaim, something pinged me before but i can't remember exactly sorry this is not helpful



you are in poe because mml is cop cleared, mikey is cop, leetic is pr and that leaves you or jesse and my gut is just telling me jesse is kind of mislynch bait but we will see going forward more depending on who wolves push, and i am going to have to readback to before i will try harder tomorrow tbh, but i just remember pushing jesse and the doubts on that slot in general doesn't feel like a wolf in a wolf dominated thread/game



bolth just feels like he has been kind of preaching about like me not solving, but he doesn't seem to be trying himself earlier today he expressed frustration about me being able to get townread without posting/reading thread properly and that if he could do the same he could.



I think this is kind of perspective slippy because he wants me to read thread to kind of solve to look townier, but he is saying he only reads thread to look towny. On one hand he is saying i am scum for not efforting on the other hand he is saying if he could do the same and get townread he could so it is like, he is really doing what he thinks is towny because he thinks that is towny and he is pushing the opposite without really trying to read the play. He is attempting to act towny, not solve the game. Yes i am being a hypocrite rn, no i dont care it is what it is me and bolth are different players.

Originally Posted by Duskfall (Post 4728340)

how do they know who is real?

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe (Post 4728342)

Thank you thank you thank you

OK so the PoE read on me makes sense I guess. If your options are me and jessie, then I can understand how an inactive slot will always feel like mislynch bait due its nature.

Haku I don't agree with as much because he's been known to support zany stances as town. What gives me pause there is that he's normally good at mechanics based solves, even to the point of figuring out literally every possibility and then spending all night tinfoiling them until he arrives at said zany stance. So coming with a "mechanics" plan to mass claim based on the reasoning he gave doesn't feel like his normal solving capabilities.

But the reason I was especially happy to see this post is 'cause that bolth read is solid. I read the post where he said he wonders why he posts if all he has to do to get townread is not post and it gave me pause as well, so that read makes most sense to me here

Originally Posted by leetic (Post 4728341)

Of course, we run into the problem that three Cs is very unlikely to begin with (about 0.06%). So I don't really believe Mikey's claim based on that.

Originally Posted by Hakulyte (Post 4728343)

They know who is "not wolf".

Originally Posted by flashflash account (Post 4728353)

at this point I'm convinced it's just this running gag where leetic keeps voting me because they think I'll eventually be a wolf

Originally Posted by Hakulyte (Post 4728352)

Prob not revisiting Duskfall until game is over because the guy seems to actually be upset by my play.

That helps clear FFA a bit too.

Originally Posted by Hakulyte (Post 4728354)

Would you be surprised if MML Godfather or you're pretty sure that's town almost every time ?

Originally Posted by flashflash account (Post 4728356)

it would be a more favorable conclusion for MML than them actually being this bullheaded

Originally Posted by flashflash account (Post 4728353)

at this point I'm convinced it's just this running gag where leetic keeps voting me because they think I'll eventually be a wolf

Originally Posted by leetic (Post 4728359)

I'm willing to take the 0.06% chance I'm wrong

Originally Posted by leetic (Post 4728359)

I'm willing to take the 0.06% chance I'm wrong

Originally Posted by Hakulyte (Post 4728362)

0.06% chance is a reasonable amount when it comes to the odds of the setup.

It's not like a setup has 99.4% chance to appear and it's between those two.

It's some big number splitted between a ton of scenarios.

Originally Posted by Duskfall (Post 4728367)

wait i also did my maths wrong i think its like 1 percent

Originally Posted by Duskfall (Post 4728365)

leetic didnt do maths right btw given the info we know, assuming leetics claim is also correct the odds of there being exactly 3 Cs in the setup is actually



~5.25 percent

Originally Posted by leetic (Post 4728369)

How are you doing it? For me it's (1/10)^3*(9/10)*4=about 0.00065

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe (Post 4728370)

You were quicker than me, but you're wrong too.

The binomial probability of rolling 3 Cs out of 7, where the chance of each C is 1/10, is roughly 2.296%

I cheated tho I used a calculator
https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx

Originally Posted by Duskfall (Post 4728372)

i realised i was wrong after but you are also wrong LOL

its around 1 percent because its 2 cs out of 5 since we already have 1 c and 1 v given

Originally Posted by leetic (Post 4728369)

How are you doing it? For me it's (1/10)^3*(9/10)*4=about 0.00065

Originally Posted by leetic (Post 4728374)

But the one C and one V were rolled with the rest of the numbers, so leaving them out skews the results

Originally Posted by Duskfall (Post 4728372)

i realised i was wrong after but you are also wrong LOL



its around 1 percent because its 2 cs out of 5 since we already have 1 c and 1 v given

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe (Post 4728377)

No. It's 3 Cs out of 7. The V just gets treated as a non-C roll and you'd never take out anything because the setup was rolled out of 7

Originally Posted by Hakulyte (Post 4728379)

I feel like we should lynch every PRs who claims something in every C9 games with numbers like that.

That doesn't make sense to me.

Originally Posted by Duskfall (Post 4728378)

what are you trying to calculate exactly?

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe (Post 4728384)

Stop guys stop, this is besides the point. The odds of 3 Cs out of 7 is 2.296.

Leetic, I've seen this setup with 3 doctors on here and with 3 cops before too. These things happen

The fact is that there's a red check and the way to resolve it is to lynch the red check to resolve the cop claim. Either FFA is lying and he gets lynched tomorrow or he's not and you can tinfoil on them being partners all you want, though no one will ever follow you on it

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe (Post 4728384)

you can tinfoil on them being partners all you want, though no one will ever follow you on it

Originally Posted by Hakulyte (Post 4728389)

That's spicy. I should note that for my future wolf games.

Originally Posted by Hakulyte (Post 4728389)

That's spicy. I should note that for my future wolf games.

Originally Posted by Hakulyte (Post 4728393)

Pretty sure a SK would have shot something last phase after Xiz died because otherwise the SK will lose to wolves rather badly.

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe (Post 4728394)

I disagree. A VCTTTTT setup, for instance, would have just 2 wolves and a serial killer. I'm not discounting any possibilities until they discount themselves and you shouldn't either

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe (Post 4728395)

Wait nvm I'm wrong I forgot Ts just indicated power roles and that vanilla wolves were still a thing, my b

Originally Posted by Hakulyte (Post 4728396)

If Vanilla wolves exist in that setup, I don't understand that setup.

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe (Post 4728399)

VCTTTTT would be

1-shot vigi
1-shot cop
7 villagers

1-shot maf rolecop
Godfather
Vanilla wolf

Serial killer (with conditional extra abilities)

My point is just, don't assume there isn't one because there haven't been 2nd kills yet, even if you feel optimal play would've been different than what you've seen.

Originally Posted by Hakulyte (Post 4728406)

I got outplayed by Makilaz with April 31st in her votecount. rip me.

Originally Posted by Hakulyte (Post 4728403)

I'm saying that because OP doesn't have sample roles for a vanilla wolf, but it does for everything else.

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe (Post 4728412)

Oh turns out you're right and I was right originally too. I didn't see anything about it here but I know the OG C9++ had em.

But yeah there are no vanilla wolves possible

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe (Post 4728412)

Oh turns out you're right and I was right originally too. I didn't see anything about it here but I know the OG C9++ had em.

But yeah there are no vanilla wolves possible