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-   -   TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD] (http://www.flashflashrevolution.com/vbz/showthread.php?t=152539)

the sun fan 11-25-2020 05:11 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
I guess I should be careful what I wish for
I voted Freezin so that people would talk to me and this is what I get

look
just tell me, not a fuckin' gutread, give me something more than that because if we're wrong today and we go into mylo tomorrow, that's pretty fuckin' shitty, give me a reason why Freezin is a bad kill today based on what has happened thus far

Yoshl too, for you Haku

FreezinIce 11-25-2020 05:15 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by the sun fan (Post 4750491)
ah, yeah, you'll forgive me for stepping out of the way of the tumbleweed that blew past after I posted my reads list

tell me what I'm dodging
tell me what I'm dodging
tell me what I'm dodging
tell me what I'm dodging
tell me what I'm dodging

i just find the fact you completely sidestepped all that discussion with the verbose equivalent of "pairings are dumb" pretty wierd

thats something id expect from myself, and you dont play like me at all. Im currently doing pretty much the same thing, ive barely thought about all the discussion around fg / plop / tforce in service of doing my own thing

but the way you play i would have at least thought youd give that topic more words before moving on.

FreezinIce 11-25-2020 05:16 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by the sun fan (Post 4750492)
I guess I should be careful what I wish for
I voted Freezin so that people would talk to me and this is what I get

look
just tell me, not a fuckin' gutread, give me something more than that because if we're wrong today and we go into mylo tomorrow, that's pretty fuckin' shitty, give me a reason why Freezin is a bad kill today based on what has happened thus far

Yoshl too, for you Haku

first information lynch?

the sun fan 11-25-2020 05:21 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by FreezinIce (Post 4750493)
i just find the fact you completely sidestepped all that discussion with the verbose equivalent of "pairings are dumb" pretty wierd

thats something id expect from myself, and you dont play like me at all. Im currently doing pretty much the same thing, ive barely thought about all the discussion around fg / plop / tforce in service of doing my own thing

but the way you play i would have at least thought youd give that topic more words before moving on.

this is the part where not knowing my meta is kind of stupid
this isn't something I just decided to give a shit about
I've literally talked for years about how people need to stop inventing pairings/teams in their head because its stupid to try and solve the game based off of that

the more you build it up, almost certainly, the more incorrect it gets, which is why just finding a singular scum that you feel good about is, in my opinion, rather proper for most people (this assumes no mechanical information that creates a dichotomy)

I have said this for literally years

the sun fan 11-25-2020 05:21 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by FreezinIce (Post 4750494)
first information lynch?

I don't even know what you're saying here

Hakulyte 11-25-2020 05:22 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by the sun fan (Post 4750495)
this is the part where not knowing my meta is kind of stupid
this isn't something I just decided to give a shit about
I've literally talked for years about how people need to stop inventing pairings/teams in their head because its stupid to try and solve the game based off of that

the more you build it up, almost certainly, the more incorrect it gets, which is why just finding a singular scum that you feel good about is, in my opinion, rather proper for most people (this assumes no mechanical information that creates a dichotomy)

I have said this for literally years

So, basically you're telling me to vote Plop.

FreezinIce 11-25-2020 05:23 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
alright, well then by your own admission what info do you get when i die and flip human?

FreezinIce 11-25-2020 05:27 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by the sun fan (Post 4750496)
I don't even know what you're saying here

short answer is it was a joke that didnt translate well from my head to reality

the sun fan 11-25-2020 05:28 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by FreezinIce (Post 4750498)
alright, well then by your own admission what info do you get when i die and flip human?

its not about the information, though I'm sure I could go back at the people who weren't talking about you and find some kind of conclusion, its about the fact that people were ignoring you, everyone was saying that they have a lot of townreads, but you weren't getting any developed townreads given on you

so I thought it was a good place to push to see what people had to say

little did I know that people had nothing to say about you other than they think you're town

this is very frustrating because like
you still haven't talked to me about what's wrong with my POE, which you raised objections about at the beginning of our discussion here, you're just pushing back at me

get rid of your hardon for a thunderdome and actually tell me where my reads are wrong (other than on you), please, for my sanity

also, since you apparently thought I wouldn't mind the pairings thing, I talked at length about how killing someone for info is pretty stupid because no one actually values any perceived information

you, somehow, still don't understand why I voted you

I voted you because I felt like you were being ignored, and I wanted you to stop getting ignored, and somewhere along the way, maybe get a developed read on you, but people just keep telling me to jerk myself off and shit

the sun fan 11-25-2020 05:29 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hakulyte (Post 4750497)
So, basically you're telling me to vote Plop.

sure, go ahead, he's been getting ignored too, the only difference so far is that he has promised content and freezin's just said that he isn't in the game yet

FreezinIce 11-25-2020 05:31 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
I also like how your stance has morphed from this

Quote:

Originally Posted by the sun fan (Post 4750433)
I want to buy all stock that says Freezin is a wolf while it is still low. I somewhat expect him to be able to prove that he is town a la star-crossed's dice game if he is town, so I think this is a good place to vote for the time being anyways.

to this

Quote:

Originally Posted by the sun fan (Post 4750492)
just tell me, not a fuckin' gutread, give me something more than that because if we're wrong today and we go into mylo tomorrow, that's pretty fuckin' shitty, give me a reason why Freezin is a bad kill today based on what has happened thus far

oooo am i getting under your skin baby???

living rent free in your head????

FreezinIce 11-25-2020 05:32 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
that last post from sunfan is slaying me lol

FreezinIce 11-25-2020 05:32 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
the big one, not the small one

FreezinIce 11-25-2020 05:33 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by the sun fan (Post 4750501)
get rid of your hardon for a thunderdome

i will NEVER

FreezinIce 11-25-2020 05:33 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
being real though, i will eventually crystalize everything. Im kind of memeing atm

TWGma 11-25-2020 05:34 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
Plop
I read the thread a bit while mobile and at work, but I think Plop and FG are hits.
With that said though, Plop solves FG for me whereas I don't feel as strongly about FG solves Plop for me.

To summarize my thoughts, I think FG's vote on Plop was a very weak attempt at trying to distance from each other, as well as get around the excuse of "well they've never interacted with each other this game."

Plop's vote on me is to try to "distance" him and I instead because of the sus currently on me and keeps FG alive - which makes my vote that much worse because it only reinforces that belief, but I don't care, I think Plop is howling a hella lot more.

Quote:

Originally Posted by fatfuck42 (Post 4750013)
On the one hand, I feel like wolf t-force, if he really got caught and thought he couldn't get out of this, would be memeing a lot harder, similar to the nonary games game.

But on the other hand, I think his game here aligns with his wolf game in that game too.

This post in particular strikes me because it's something I do often as a wolf.
Give a read on someone, but also give the devik's advocate.
Ultimately, no read is actually given, but it looks like substance on the surface.



Quote:

Originally Posted by fatfuck42 (Post 4749915)
I don't like the idea of an Ule lynch, personally. Feels like it's a miss, plus everyone's gonna have the same justification for voting there so it won't get us much info.

Hindsight is hindsight, but this seems like a too-much-info post.
Did I not want Ulle lynched, you're right in that I didn't, but my only reason was to keep new players around longer, but that's just repeating myself.



Quote:

Originally Posted by Funnygurl555 (Post 4749998)
i think we're seeing the same thing

but alas t-force, we're basically never on the same team so you know i've gotta do this

surprised this is more of a one way thing though. where's the rivalry? :(

This post also draws my attention going back.
I think FG was trying to say that she and I both were reading that Haku was being wolfy with his vote on me.
Reading through this day, I don't think Haku is a wolf based on his talks with Shadow and DBP because I feel that would be very hard to keep up that facade for so long; it'd be easier to just say "g'night, I'll be back later."
The only way he's a wolf is if DBP also is and they basically bullshit-solve while Shadow sits there, but I don't think this is the case in this game.



Quote:

Originally Posted by fatfuck42 (Post 4749957)
I can't get behind an FG lynch.





Quote:

Originally Posted by DaBackpack (Post 4750014)
T-Force's posts feel snarky and passive-aggressive but I'm willing to ascribe that to actual frustration and like "lol"

For the record, almost 100% Column B. Column A (frustration) is pretty minimal this game.



PS. Haku. Re: your thoughts on going after FFA due to being Phoenix? I stopped watching your objections after the first page. I didn't even know you made him Phoenix.

PPS. Sunfan, while genius, that's not why I laughed at FFA being Moe.

DaBackpack 11-25-2020 05:35 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by FreezinIce (Post 4750498)
alright, well then by your own admission what info do you get when i die and flip human?

FMPOV either Freezin doesn't actually understand what sunfan is trying to do here, or he's being overly defensive

sunfan is just trying to motivate discussion around a character who everyone has just kinda been ignoring, and he's challenging us to take a step back and actually critically evaluate why if/why we think he's towny

it's not an invalid way of creating content, esp with >24 hours left in phase

the sun fan 11-25-2020 05:36 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by FreezinIce (Post 4750503)
I also like how your stance has morphed from this



to this



oooo am i getting under your skin baby???

living rent free in your head????

firstly, I hate that phrase, I think its stupid

yes, you haven't done shit to prove that you're town, and I expect that of you

I don't see how those two things are at odds at all, and I gladly gave you good odds of being scum that was going under the radar

this discussion has made me feel better about buying all that stock low because it feels like you're not reading what I'm saying sometimes

since you've managed to find the post that I've asked you to comment on two other times, can you please tell me, I don't even need a bunch of reasoning, just please tell me who I am either townreading that I shouldn't be, or mafiareading that I shouldn't be, aside from you

the sun fan 11-25-2020 05:38 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by TWGma (Post 4750508)
PPS. Sunfan, while genius, that's not why I laughed at FFA being Moe.

yeah, its something you couldn't have known

I like that clown character btw, and I know I'm in the minority

Hakulyte 11-25-2020 05:38 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by TWGma (Post 4750508)
PS. Haku. Re: your thoughts on going after FFA due to being Phoenix? I stopped watching your objections after the first page. I didn't even know you made him Phoenix.

I made him Phoenix because he posted an objection where he was Phoenix.

Also, good post overall. I'll have to think more about this.

the sun fan 11-25-2020 05:38 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by TWGma (Post 4750508)

temptation to change my avatar to this because this is how I feel right now

Hakulyte 11-25-2020 05:40 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by FreezinIce (Post 4750507)
being real though, i will eventually crystalize everything. Im kind of memeing atm

Have you read DBP's post ? I think having your stance on that stuff is kinda important.

the sun fan 11-25-2020 05:42 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by FreezinIce (Post 4750507)
being real though, i will eventually crystalize everything. Im kind of memeing atm


the sun fan 11-25-2020 05:43 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hakulyte (Post 4750514)
Have you read DBP's post ? I think having your stance on that stuff is kinda important.

can you please tell me where I am likely to be wrong in my reads post?
pretty please?
s'il te plait?

Hakulyte 11-25-2020 05:45 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
Logically, you want to vote out Plop here to reinforce the FG/T-Force worlds.
Plop really needs to put more on the table than what he's been doing.

It's getting uncomfortably awkward to see him throw stances without explanations.

Also, this gives more time to FG/T-Force to say anything that could help confirm one side.

I also think wolf DBP wouldn't want me to pick choice #3 while exposing #1 vs #2. So, this is probably the ideal world that doesn't feel forced by a narrative.

Unless someone is town reading Plop ?

If you are, why ?

DaBackpack 11-25-2020 05:45 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by the sun fan (Post 4750515)


the sun fan 11-25-2020 05:46 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
reading all of trevor's post
yeah, I give up
make all the pairings you guys want, its a really great way to play the game and you win big if you're right
I just hope you're right

Hakulyte 11-25-2020 05:47 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by the sun fan (Post 4750516)
can you please tell me where I am likely to be wrong in my reads post?
pretty please?
s'il te plait?

Can I hold on that until Freezin "crystalize his thoughts" or whatever ?

the sun fan 11-25-2020 05:47 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hakulyte (Post 4750517)
Logically, you want to vote out Plop here to reinforce the FG/T-Force worlds.
Plop really needs to put more on the table than what he's been doing.

It's getting uncomfortably awkward to see him throw stances without explanations.

Also, this gives more time to FG/T-Force to say anything that could help confirm one side.

I also think wolf DBP wouldn't want me to pick choice #3 while exposing #1 vs #2. So, this is probably the ideal world that doesn't feel forced by a narrative.

Unless someone is town reading Plop ?

If you are, why ?

there is no fg/twgma pairing that needs to be solved

I was going to type this 10 more times, but my last post said I give up on that so

fuck me, I guess

the sun fan 11-25-2020 05:48 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hakulyte (Post 4750520)
Can I hold on that until Freezin "crystalize his thoughts" or whatever ?

as long as he does that within the next 24 hours from this post, sure

DaBackpack 11-25-2020 05:48 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by the sun fan (Post 4750521)
there is no fg/twgma pairing that needs to be solved

I was going to type this 10 more times, but my last post said I give up on that so

fuck me, I guess

please don't give up, im listening

DaBackpack 11-25-2020 05:52 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
im still on the clock but im listening

mellon_collie 11-25-2020 05:55 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by FreezinIce (Post 4750481)
the fact that i can make reads like this is pretty astonishing considering how little of what im reading im actually internalizing as of now

welcome to daily life with adhd! read something 5 times before figuring out what it means because your brain scrambled it up, then immediately forget what it was

Quote:

Originally Posted by the sun fan (Post 4750495)
I've literally talked for years about how people need to stop inventing pairings/teams in their head because its stupid to try and solve the game based off of that

the more you build it up, almost certainly, the more incorrect it gets, which is why just finding a singular scum that you feel good about is, in my opinion, rather proper for most people (this assumes no mechanical information that creates a dichotomy)

I have said this for literally years

This is why I love you sunfan. also haku you asked for advice earlier? STOP DOING THIS

mellon_collie 11-25-2020 05:57 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
Are there people other than haku who are considering yoshl to be off the table?

the sun fan 11-25-2020 06:11 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by DaBackpack (Post 4750523)
please don't give up, im listening

alright, I'll make a post to air all my thoughts on this

lets say, for a moment, that someone develops a w/w pairing, and surprise! the postgame says they were right (this assumes there was no mechanical information to base this w/w pairing on). How many times have you seen this? Now compare that number to how many times you think they were right for the right reason(s). You should have a very low number, right? Probably single-digits?

The reason your number is so low is because people almost never put everything together for the right reasons in TWG. Its like trying to see 13 moves ahead in Chess, and not just building hypothesis and analyzing lines about what your opponent might do, its literally knowing/guessing that your opponent is going to behave exactly this way for the next long while; its just not realistic for almost everyone to do.

So, I pose the question, why do people keep trying it if they're almost never right for the right reasons? There's probably a lot of different answers that can mesh together here, bias and people feeling like its what they're supposed to do being one. I counter this with the idea that you don't need to try and pin two of the three wolves together based on reasoning, you just need to find them individually scummy.

How many times in your life have you seen a town be right on two scumreads? Compare it to how many times you think that this was for the right reason(s). Ok, I'll grant that the number is probably not gigantic, but its almost certainly bigger than the original number, you probably did math wrong if you didn't get a larger figure.

The reason that this is higher is because its a lot easier to be right on two individual scumreads, especially given that the first flip actually helps you narrow things down a lot, whereas you're just up shit creek without a paddle in the other world where you've built a world of two.

The first world has you chase two rabbits, the second world has you chase one one day and another the next. Odds are you're going to catch more rabbits in the second path.

This is why its so frustrating today to see people talk about pairings, and I know I only talked about wolves together (I think there is a very small number of people on the internet who correctly make reads based on "these two people aren't wolves together," star-crossed is one of them for example), but I would generally apply it to w/t reads as well, because it does cast a wider net and people generally don't know what they're doing.

Even if people are right, and there's this overwhelming amount of information that needs to be resolved between fg/force or fg/plop (there isn't), then I would posit that they almost definitely have not gotten to a correct conclusion by the correct means, and the next time they try it as town, they are almost certainly not going to have a repeat result

I could talk about the math here, but its kind of boring to me, but you probably can tell that, even if humans are at least slightly better at developing reads than they would be if they randomly made them, that trying to chase two rabbits will generally not turn out well

it also gives wolves more leeway for their pushes, but that's a hard topic to talk about in general

tl;dr almost everyone would be better served just finding two or three scummy people and trying to decide between them, rather than spend time and effort on developing a world/team that will almost never be right for the right reasons

Shadow_God_10 11-25-2020 06:21 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by mellon_collie (Post 4750526)
Are there people other than haku who are considering yoshl to be off the table?

I have a town lean on him, because I seem to remember this style of play back in the Senpai game and that's all I've really got.

So I wouldn't be sad if he died and flipped town, I'd prefer if we looked elsewhere just for today

the sun fan 11-25-2020 06:22 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
I hope Yoshl is a wolf and wins this game so that your anus knows the feeling of losing to him, Shadow_God

you'll never have a stupid townread on him again

mellon_collie 11-25-2020 06:23 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Shadow_God_10 (Post 4750529)
I have a town lean on him, because I seem to remember this style of play back in the Senpai game and that's all I've really got.

So I wouldn't be sad if he died and flipped town, I'd prefer if we looked elsewhere just for today

Can you point anything out about his style that is similar? and you realize that "just for today" is kinda hard when we've already lost 3 town right

TWGma 11-25-2020 06:25 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
Sunfan's post is probably right in terms of the numbers and such, but all I can think about is "You miss 100% of the shots you don't take."

So maybe the pairing sucks, but dammit, Plop is still the wolfiest player in this game, imo, and FG is not far behind.

fatfuck42 11-25-2020 06:29 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
Alright, I made a rare evening cup of mud and I'm gonna sip on it as I reread the thread in full.

Shadow_God_10 11-25-2020 06:31 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by mellon_collie (Post 4750531)
Can you point anything out about his style that is similar? and you realize that "just for today" is kinda hard when we've already lost 3 town right

It's mostly his calm demeanor and analyzing things... maybe? It's been a year since I've played with him... I could be wrong, and usually am about things like this


Yeah hindsight is a cunt and I realize that we actually NEED to hit a wolf today to get some good leverage going into tomorrow

Shadow_God_10 11-25-2020 06:31 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
FG still top dog for me based on what I've said last night so far

the sun fan 11-25-2020 06:35 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by TWGma (Post 4750532)
Sunfan's post is probably right in terms of the numbers and such, but all I can think about is "You miss 100% of the shots you don't take."

So maybe the pairing sucks, but dammit, Plop is still the wolfiest player in this game, imo, and FG is not far behind.

Sunfan: *A reasonable explanation as to why town shouldn't play a certain way*

Force: *Meme quote*

guess I lose this one

the sun fan 11-25-2020 06:58 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hakulyte (Post 4750517)
Logically, you want to vote out Plop here to reinforce the FG/T-Force worlds.

this is the thing, Haku

you're talking about logic here when its a read
Plop has nothing to do with any worlds related to FG/T-Force in my mind. I don't care about this at all, and you shouldn't either.

Just fucking pick someone and vote them because you think they're scummy, not because you'll get some reinforcement on a world that isn't remotely related to the reason why you'd vote the person in the first place

its seriously no wonder town lost last game trying to infolynch me d0

there was no information gathered other than that I was town

whatever plop flips if we kill him, you go back, you look at his interactions, and *then* you decide what information you want to give a shit about. Until then, pick someone for being scummy.

DaBackpack 11-25-2020 07:05 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by the sun fan (Post 4750536)
Sunfan: *A reasonable explanation as to why town shouldn't play a certain way*

Force: *Meme quote*

guess I lose this one

I think your post is largely correct. The one contradiction I see is that wagonomics really only makes sense in the context of dyads, because players vote for other players. When you analyze voting patterns of specific players--- which is a very good tool for solving--- you naturally start asking yourself about the alignment relationship between the voters and the votees.

While individual actions are reliable pieces of evidence, there is always going to be that context which is additional information to hone the read.

I definitely think that basing reads based on dyads this early on is fundamentally risky, but I still think that you can't fully understand human behavior and agenda without at least utilizing connections between players. An example would be with FG: her voting for Ulli is confusing and scummy at first, until you realize that she wanted to keep FFA alive because of the nature of their relationship.

---Anyway, this is more academic and nitpicky than is useful. I think the policy you've described in your wallpost is the best way to at least start out with reasoning.

DaBackpack 11-25-2020 07:14 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
Regarding T-Force/FG:

If (big if) we feel reasonably sure that this is W/T then we absolutely should vote in here today, IMO.

Because here's what will happen if we don't: we'll mislynch today, and during tomorrow (potential MYLO) the wolves will weaponize the T-Force/FG tension, and they will force (ha) the issue, but specifically in a way that lynches the wrong person. We see this all the time: a scummy town player is strategically kept alive until MYLO, and then the wolves push the narrative "well, we kinda HAVE to resolve this player now" and get the win off the mislynch.

Resolving these conflicts early on prevents wolves from weaponizing them in the critical moment. I think the vigi agrees with me, which is why they prolly shot Ulli in the night. Maybe they'll be able to resolve T-Force/FG by shooting them tonight, idk how the numbers work for parity if they do that though. I'd rather at least flip one of them as a lynch though, because that helps the vigi tremendously in the night.

the sun fan 11-25-2020 07:17 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
Maya only had one bullet, DBP

DaBackpack 11-25-2020 07:19 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
If my perspective today seems pretty myopic that's why. We can't guarantee a wolf hit today. And if we miss, then we better damn make sure that we don't set ourselves up for failure tomorrow.

I'm self-aware that I'm kind of tunneling right now but it's for more of a mechanical reason based in minimizing long-term risk.

DaBackpack 11-25-2020 07:22 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by the sun fan (Post 4750541)
Maya only had one bullet, DBP

oh, fuck me then

Note to roundbox for future games: please make Maya stronger. She deserves it. Please

TWGma 11-25-2020 07:23 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by the sun fan (Post 4750536)
Sunfan: *A reasonable explanation as to why town shouldn't play a certain way*

Force: *Meme quote*

guess I lose this one

I'm glad you think I'm using a meme quote. $2 says you also thought I was using the Michael Scott version of it whilst completely forgetting the origin of it. Dude, sometimes we just need to take a fuckin' shot.

TWGma 11-25-2020 07:24 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
And if you want to stand on your pedestal with your finger in the air talking about why we need to look elsewhere, please go for it.

But this game thread currently shows 3 candidates regarded by most to be wolves, so why are you trying to distract from that.

DaBackpack 11-25-2020 07:24 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
looking back at the OP, the town power roles are like really weak

the only ones that look "good" are Trucy and Ema. Trucy deserves it at least

TWGma 11-25-2020 07:26 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by DaBackpack (Post 4750538)
I think your post is largely correct. The one contradiction I see is that wagonomics really only makes sense in the context of dyads, because players vote for other players. When you analyze voting patterns of specific players--- which is a very good tool for solving--- you naturally start asking yourself about the alignment relationship between the voters and the votees.

While individual actions are reliable pieces of evidence, there is always going to be that context which is additional information to hone the read.

I definitely think that basing reads based on dyads this early on is fundamentally risky, but I still think that you can't fully understand human behavior and agenda without at least utilizing connections between players. An example would be with FG: her voting for Ulli is confusing and scummy at first, until you realize that she wanted to keep FFA alive because of the nature of their relationship.

---Anyway, this is more academic and nitpicky than is useful. I think the policy you've described in your wallpost is the best way to at least start out with reasoning.

Thank you for reinforcing what I said earlier today.

DaBackpack 11-25-2020 07:27 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
gyakuten saiban has a really good female cast. honestly just an incredible cast in general. that's what gives the series so much staying power imo

Esp. Maya and Edgeworth

TWGma 11-25-2020 07:27 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
Out of context of the game, I think roundbox may have nerfed them after town roflstomped thanks to a vigi kill AND a Trucy kill on a wolf on consecutive nights and then lynching the last wolf. I may be wrong, or the events out of order, but one game was absolute chaos.

fatfuck42 11-25-2020 07:29 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by DaBackpack (Post 4750545)
Note to roundbox for future games: please make Maya stronger. She deserves it. Please

QFE

DaBackpack 11-25-2020 07:30 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
Hey T-Force, since you're here, I want you to know that you're currently still my top lynch target today. If you're town I really want to see you put in investigative work so that you can clear yourself.

I always have a really hard time reading you, I think because your general disposition always reads wolfy to me. So it's probably gonna come down to the quality of your reads and prodding

the sun fan 11-25-2020 07:31 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by TWGma (Post 4750546)
I'm glad you think I'm using a meme quote. $2 says you also thought I was using the Michael Scott version of it whilst completely forgetting the origin of it. Dude, sometimes we just need to take a fuckin' shot.

the quote has been meme'd to death
I've seen it ascribed to Dale Earnhardt Jr

fatfuck42 11-25-2020 07:32 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
Couple questions as I continue rereading:

1) When freezin plays town, is he the type of player who tries to act townie for the benefit of other townies, or is he the type of player who expects his towniness to speak for itself?

2) When yoshl plays scum, does he have any sort of modus operandi on which types of players he pushes to get mislynched or which sorts of wagons he joins/creates?

mellon_collie 11-25-2020 07:34 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Shadow_God_10 (Post 4750534)
It's mostly his calm demeanor and analyzing things... maybe? It's been a year since I've played with him... I could be wrong, and usually am about things like this


Yeah hindsight is a cunt and I realize that we actually NEED to hit a wolf today to get some good leverage going into tomorrow

yeah I'm gonna say this is a good enough reason to have a lean but not much else. definitely not strong enough for "off the table for the day"

Quote:

Originally Posted by fatfuck42 (Post 4750552)
QFE

QFDE (the d stands for double)

DaBackpack 11-25-2020 07:37 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by fatfuck42 (Post 4750555)
Couple questions as I continue rereading:

1) When freezin plays town, is he the type of player who tries to act townie for the benefit of other townies, or is he the type of player who expects his towniness to speak for itself?

2) When yoshl plays scum, does he have any sort of modus operandi on which types of players he pushes to get mislynched or which sorts of wagons he joins/creates?

1) Pretty sure the latter
2) It's been a while since I've seen YoshL play, and his general attitude and demeanor have changed since the old days, but he is a very versatile character as a wolf imo. I can't really conjure up any notion of a script that he follows. It's probably best to read him based on his agenda as opposed to tone or strategy

DaBackpack 11-25-2020 07:38 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
Raeko feels a bit more assertive and aggressive this game. I think that's probably a good thing, just pointing it out in case anyone wants to do anything with it

mellon_collie 11-25-2020 07:45 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by DaBackpack (Post 4750558)
Raeko feels a bit more assertive and aggressive this game. I think that's probably a good thing, just pointing it out in case anyone wants to do anything with it

aggressive really? where lol I don't really see that

DaBackpack 11-25-2020 07:53 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by mellon_collie (Post 4750559)
aggressive really? where lol I don't really see that

It's more a tone thing. More incisive than I remember I guess

mellon_collie 11-25-2020 07:54 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by DaBackpack (Post 4750560)
It's more a tone thing. More incisive than I remember I guess

Ok I was about to say.... I've been aggressive and if people think this is equal I must be nowhere near as scary as I thought T_T

DaBackpack 11-25-2020 08:00 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
It's a little unfortunate that EoD falls on Thanksgiving. I hope it doesn't affect activity tomorrow. I know a bunch of people (myself included) are doing remote gatherings and such

TWGma 11-25-2020 08:02 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
I can see the assertiveness in Raeko, but not really the aggression.

the sun fan 11-25-2020 08:02 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
I'm going to bed
I'll move my vote to [force[/twgv] since the discussion has already happened for the most part, for better or for worse (it was for worse)

Funnygurl555 11-25-2020 08:10 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
im back

me and sunfan (and mikey) WON the ZD twg

i give myself ALL THE CREDIT even though i deserve NONE OF IT

DaBackpack 11-25-2020 08:14 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by the sun fan (Post 4750565)
I'm going to bed
I'll move my vote to [force[/twgv] since the discussion has already happened for the most part, for better or for worse (it was for worse)

I can't tell if you're upset but if you are just know that I value and respect you immensely

DaBackpack 11-25-2020 08:14 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Funnygurl555 (Post 4750566)
im back

me and sunfan (and mikey) WON the ZD twg

i give myself ALL THE CREDIT even though i deserve NONE OF IT

hello, please do something

Funnygurl555 11-25-2020 08:16 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by DaBackpack (Post 4750568)
hello, please do something

i shall......... in approximately an HOUR

Shadow_God_10 11-25-2020 08:18 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by mellon_collie (Post 4750561)
Ok I was about to say.... I've been aggressive and if people think this is equal I must be nowhere near as scary as I thought T_T

You're like... You know that small kind of dog that nips at you just to be cute and playful

That's kind of you, I imagine :D

Shadow_God_10 11-25-2020 08:19 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Funnygurl555 (Post 4750569)
i shall......... in approximately an HOUR

Can I vote you twice?

Shadow_God_10 11-25-2020 08:20 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by the sun fan (Post 4750565)
I'm going to bed
I'll move my vote to [force[/twgv] since the discussion has already happened for the most part, for better or for worse (it was for worse)

Damn he's so tired his brain blocked out the first half of the vote tag lmao

TWGma 11-25-2020 08:20 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Shadow_God_10 (Post 4750570)
You're like... You know that small kind of dog that nips at you just to be cute and playful

That's kind of you, I imagine :D

Yeah, that's basically it for me too.
Raeko being aggressive I imagine, in her head, is her being like a graceful lioness pouncing on her prey being majectic as hell.
Whereas I see it as Lotus trying to paw at a mouse toy. An action, but not one that'll cause me to drop a load in my trousers.

Funnygurl555 11-25-2020 08:21 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
after i come home from work i spend an hour or two doing school work every night. it's not an eod so yeah i'ma prioritize that atm

like, y'all can buzz off with that "fg do something shit" first of all none of you listened to me last eod

Shadow_God_10 11-25-2020 08:24 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
I apologize if I'm at a frozen stage here, I'm just not sure how to read people (Specifically Sunfan/YoshL/Plop) and I've been sheeping a bit off of the information I've been given

Mechanics? I'm not the greatest at, but I feel as if the mechanics of this game are pretty simple so I'm ignoring that

It was interesting that Sunfan mentioned Maya Fey fwiw, makes me believe we're on the same page even though that's a "No shit Sherlock"

This post isn't very useful, so carry on ladies and gents

Shadow_God_10 11-25-2020 08:25 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by TWGma (Post 4750573)
Yeah, that's basically it for me too.
Raeko being aggressive I imagine, in her head, is her being like a graceful lioness pouncing on her prey being majectic as hell.
Whereas I see it as Lotus trying to paw at a mouse toy. An action, but not one that'll cause me to drop a load in my trousers.

Kinda one of those "KAWAII" moments in your head

Anyways I'm back to playing Luna Nights here

Yeah FG do something. We ignored your pleas to keep FFA alive. Tough tits. Now would be a great time to make an impact

fatfuck42 11-25-2020 08:40 PM

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by DaBackpack (Post 4750557)
1) Pretty sure the latter
2) It's been a while since I've seen YoshL play, and his general attitude and demeanor have changed since the old days, but he is a very versatile character as a wolf imo. I can't really conjure up any notion of a script that he follows. It's probably best to read him based on his agenda as opposed to tone or strategy

Thanks! Although that's what I was afraid to hear w/r/t yoshl, lol

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shadow_God_10 (Post 4750576)
Anyways I'm back to playing Luna Nights here

Hell yeah! I should play that one again.


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