Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
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modus ponens was a year ago fourier transform was covered briefly but won't be on tomorrow traveling salesman I've done before idk about computational intractability A* done a year ago partial order set I vaguely remember I had cherry poptarts last year then realized i don't really like them |
Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
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Let me simulate how not even close I am from a solve on this for you: Quote:
Assume botchi is right. This would mean that only 1 wolf died in (Roundbox + XelNya + helphelp11 + Tokzic(clearly Town because killed by Mafia but whatever)) Note: I don't even want to try to solve this without botchi's claim. If you know even without that as a basis, be my guest. I know there's a theory about "roundbox or helphelp11" being a Wolf, but I believe it wasn't botchi who started it therefore it becomes invalid for this logic. So, Wolf #1 = Roundbox or XelNya or helphelp11 confirmed. (it doesn't matter who it is) Other stuff: botchi246 died N2 ("theorically" Town because assuming he's Psychic for this logic.) Very Important: These 2 players died after Botchi could check how many wolves are alive. This mean that we cannot know their alignment from Botchi. Sinistrosuede died N2 (modkilled) remain unknown. YoshL died N2 @ remain unknown. "Most likely" Case 1: DFR's Lynch at the end of Day 2. We had a KitB that hit DFR which was a 50/50 coin flip with Red Blaster. Note that rzr said: Quote:
rzr's relevant posts: Quote:
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Here's a few potential scenarios as to why he could have been hesitating: A) He doesn't know who's the wolf (if there's one!) Wait- that's impossible because he knows apparently. B) He's the Cop and seered the supposedly wolf but doesn't want to out himself after seeing me and botchi out as Medic/Psychic. (Think about it, 3 PRs outing themselves in a row, that would certainly look bad.) C) He has plenty of proof after (most likely DFR) and is confident he's wolf. D) He doesn't really care because neither of them are wolves. (Seered Sinistrosuede?) There's probably other possibilities, but I just wanted to give some examples. Note that Wolf #2 could also be Sinistrosuede or/and YoshL. That's making me come to the conclusion that "for some reason" there's 2 wolves in DFR/Sinistrosuede/YoshL. I'd say DFR is probably one, but Sinistrosuede with nearly no post vs YoshL who was very active and posted a lot of good content/calls/intents etc. leaves me confused. I want to assume there's a seer here or some incredible read that I missed. Like, even if I wanted to accuse YoshL, there's no way, absolutely no way that it's a 100% "this is a Wolf" call. So, there's missing information here. I'm going to skip to potential Wolf #4 and let him answer about #2/#3. That would obviously be DBP from my pov. I'm not going to bother because let's be honest, I'm biased from being in a Haku vs DBP situation. tl;dr Wolf Team could be: Roundbox or helphelp11 or XelNya/DFR(Not Confirmed from my pov)/Sinistrosuede or YoshL/DBP or (Sinistrosuede/YoshL/???) ??? = DBP could be SK therefore there's 1 wolf left who could be pretty much anyone. ...... So, conclusion to all of this? We wait for rzr because I'm not even close. <___<" Possibility #2: rzr is lying. I have no clue why. I think I love this theory, it sounds a lot more likely. Quote:
Why I'm posting all of this? Also, salty reminder that I work Friday/Saturday/Sunday and that I'll be less active this phase. Honestly, even if I was less active Day 1, I was a lot more productive that day than Day 2. I wouldn't be too worried if I was you guys. It just means I'll invest less time behind my posts so, it should mean less chaos and more "back to normal" stuff. |
Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
Coming down finally to the same conclusion as pmuch everyone..
"I'm not going anywhere interesting with this." |
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Only one person can be roleblocked per night unless there are multiple blockers unless I'm misinterpreting the setup or something. |
Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
Trivia Newbie questions that I can't answer:
Can Mafia use Team roleblock to protect a Town player? Does the first hit on a bulletproof vest triggers a Roleblock action? |
Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
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I got roleblocked. YoshL got killed by SK. Botchi got killed by Mafia. That's pretty much all you need to know for night phase. I think I derped in my own explanation in your quote because I was trying to figure out what were the potential scenarios of what could have really happened that night. I can't edit my own post sadly. |
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Only the actual blocker can send in a single target, in this case it was you, who's action(s) then become voided out which is why your shot on dap didn't go through. You keep bringing up "team roleblock" which I think is confusing you. Think of the roleblocker as a mafia PR like a medic or cop or something. As to your questions: No. It'd be hard for them to actually do that and they would benefit more from letting a town die. Regarding the SK vest, it just allows them to survive an action that would otherwise kill them (vigi shots, mafia kills etc) |
Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
When the SK survive from that action, does the person who's shooting receive a pm as if "their action was roleblocked" so we can't tell if it was a Mafia roleblock instead or we just receive nothing?
I'm trying to figure out if DAP = (SK or Mafia) or (Mafia only). |
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I did notice:
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storn
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Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
[QoTE=Hakulyte;4411511]When the SK survive from that action, does the person who's shooting receive a pm as if "their action was roleblocked" so we can't tell if it was a Mafia roleblock instead or we just receive nothing?
I'm trying to figure out if DAP = (SK or Mafia) or (Mafia only).[/quote] If you shot the SK and hit a vest I don't think you get "roleblocked" back as a result, but I'm not sure on that as I have no experience with that situation myself. Maybe someone else can shed light on this unless we're treading into angleshooting territory. If it's legal for me to ask, did you get a pm confirming that you were roleblocked? |
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Although I think it's generally the consensus that the SK's vest was hit on N1 when only Xel died though.
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if I gave you a gun right now who would you shoot? And not yourself pls :cool: |
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-_ -
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btw, just know that the memes cant be memes today. it isn't D0 anymore MWAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHA
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Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
ok so call me a sheep here, but im actually arriving at the same conclusions as many other people are. haku tried to vigi dbp and got role blocked. question #1) did you get roleblocked or did the kill not go through? #2) are you fake claiming that you used your vigi?
If you claim vigi obviously you're going to get the mafia to use their 1 shot roleblock on you that night. so why waste the 1-shot that wont occur anyways. but if it didn't get role blocked and actually shot that would line up with dbp being the SK. with his role hunting shenanigans its making him seems scummy, but it doesn't feel like a woof dbp. p.s. i got distracted while writing this :P |
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2.) I have no reason to fake claim here. (Unless I'm the SK. If you guys are convinced I'm the SK and doesn't come to conclusions by the end of this phase, lynch me. I'm serious. I already used all my abilities and I should have about the same value as a VT and we can afford to mislynch me to simplify information.) |
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then again.. now that i think about it... why would you fake claim the shooting? now that i've actually read up on the rules, if the roleblock was used on you and you didn't shoot wouldn't you still get notified? again, its good to tell people that the roleblock was used and you would say weather or not you used the kill. in other words im just stupid. |
Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
Claiming Medic near EoD objectively speaking was a bad play. The problem is that it did happen. Ironically, the claim of "who's the Medic" could have gone into any direction and I think it was a good idea to out myself to reduce the possibilities of what could be used against us. It felt safe because I was about to use my last ability anyway and become the equivalent of a Town. My worse case scenario was me getting lynched during Day 2 phase and I did flip a coin for that. I can't predict what you all do in 5 minutes. I just assumed it wouldn't be "Haku hard claimed Medic? Everyone kill Haku".
I assumed that even if my shot was roleblocked, the roleblock itself was enough information in the first place to justify the shot. I assumed I wouldn't die because my play made me look incredibly bad Day 2 and opened doors to start a counter-play. I could have died tho and this game would have gone in a fairly different way. In terms of why for my actions: If I died (I recognize that was still a fairly likely possibility), saving my shot is completely stupid and pointless. I had to shoot to get information. I got my information; it's that I've been roleblocked. If I didn't shoot, I would have known nothing and would be just looking bad right now because I hard claimed and did nothing to follow through from my own actions. Therefore it wasn't a choice and I had to shoot. I've chosen DAP because I wanted to test my own Day 1 call + "I have a feeling" Psychic soft-claims + I want you to realize that you've been looking too Town this entire game. Everyone would have jumped off a bridge in your name for how useful you've been. You can call this paranoia on my side and you would be fairly right, but that's how I see it. I also find it funny that you're now considering going with "zebra cakes" as if you also realized how we've been all looking way too Town. It's both detrimental for Town and Mafia to look too much Town. #I feel liked I learned something here. |
Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
I feel like it's about time I explain my thought process toward the entirety of this game. I'm going to use pictures because it feels more refreshing than typing wall of texts.
My play is centered around one thing: "Gathering Information" and doing everything in my power to make that happen. (this include claiming unlikely things, acting in a certain way, etc. etc.) I did this because I feel like I had to do it to compensate this incredibly terrorizing thing that is cardflips: OFF . This mechanic all by itself is the reason why I'm freaking out and trying all sorts of things. |
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Ok
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Okay, I need to clarify something because I massively derped and didn't realize something about roleblocking.
I thought you could roleblock a player and that the roleblock action itself would defend that player from getting targeted by an action. I confused this with the Medic save. Also, hitting a bulletproof vest doesn't trigger a pm to inform me that I got roleblocked. (obviously <_<" ) ..and since I got roleblocked by X mafia player it doesn't prove anything about DBP. So.. suddenly I realize that a good part of what I just said doesn't make sense. Sorry. |
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I don't know if you realize it, but what I'm posting doesn't even work?
I don't see how he could make it work even if you gave him miracle reads and everyhing. I'm convinced he's lying. I wanted to post that long wall of text in hope the other players try to iso the game in the same way and see if it's even possible to somehow get to a conclusion. I'm personally failing to make this work even if I gave myself a perfect game and out of this world reads. I could end up with the right names, but it wouldn't be a 100% call. Regardless, he does need to post. |
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Epitaph: I Hate You All
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Don't get me wrong, what you posted was good and I like it. But, rzr needed to have said that.
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Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
I wanted you to post that AFTER he posted his thing. Understand what I mean?
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Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
btw, here's my current read list before I go to work:
1. rzr - Town This could change very quickly if you can't explain your call. 2. Red Blaster - Town I was uncertain about you but you posted "I'm human" when you were most likely about to potentially get killed over that KitB. It's possible you lied, but I want to believe you didn't. You also didn't post much so, I don't really have anything against or for you and that's a good thing. 3. roundbox Killed by SK n0 - (???) (Confirmed Town or Mafia) (Not identified who, but 2 Towns - 1 Mafia) (One of the 3 possible players that could be Mafia#1 from Botchi's Psychic use) 4. Vendetta21 fontisian - Hard Claimed - Vanilla Town I'm having a hard time gauging where you are because you've stayed fairly low-profile in terms of activity. Welcome to you fontisian, you're looking good so far. I'm looking forward to see how you interact with others. 5. XelNya Killed by SK n1 - (???) (Confirmed Town or Mafia) (Not identified who, but 2 Towns - 1 Mafia) (One of the 3 possible players that could be Mafia#1 from Botchi's Psychic use) 6. Xiz - Null/Town lean You're going to have to do some explanation with DBP about that whole Psychic story. Your intentions looks pure, but not too pure either. I think you're in a good spot overall. I want to believe you're Town, but there's things to do for you today. 7. DaBackPack - Null I don't care what you rolled, you're playing really well overall and I'm tempted to wait and see if there's not more to do about you. I want to apologize for targeting you because I misunderstood roleblock mechanic and thought you were just playing dumb by telling me you don't understand what I mean. My fault. As for the 1-shot vigi use, it's mostly because I'm sticking to my old theory of you being potentially the SK + that fake-claiming psychic stuff. Thanks for not getting mad over me being dumb. I think you're fairly clear now, at least for me, but I'm still going to leave you Null because I'm not sure what to think of you atm tbh. 8. Hakulyte - Hard Claimed - Medic 9. cedolad storn42 - Town Not gonna lie, I'm starting to think Null because of tone, but whatever. Keep posting more if you can. 10. botchi246 Killed by Mafia n2 - Hard Claimed - Psychic Same as the others who was about to die and Hard Claimed. 11. Tokzic Killed by Mafia n0 - Town (confirmed Town because killed by Mafia and SK still alive) 12. reuben_tate - Town I consider him inactive and if you're Mafia, I hate you. 13. Charu - Hard Claimed - Vanilla Town I'm not touching you for the rest of the game. Your call before almost getting lynched looked legit. If I'm wrong I hate you. 14. tiloco217 Makilaz Yoshl Killed by SK n2 - Null I feel bad because I just wanted to do a faint on you and the SK ended up targeting you anyway. You're really making me look bad right now and it's my own fault. 15. danceflashrevo Lynched d2 - Null/Mafia(?) I mean, I did vote you Day 1 with Vendetta and maybe we weren't wrong after all. There's plenty of people who believe you could be one of them. 16. helphelp11 Lynched d1 - (???) (Confirmed Town or Mafia) (Not identified who, but 2 Towns - 1 Mafia) (One of the 3 possible players that could be Mafia#1 from Botchi's Psychic use) 17. Sinistrosuede Modkilled n2 - (???) Potential Mafia here. Honestly this sucks for Mafia's Team if that's really the case. 18. _Zenith_ AragakiAyase - Null I can see you become a policy lynch, but I think people are overreacting because of Zenith's play. You're being really relevant and pertinent so far, I want to believe we should keep you in the game as long as we can. 19. SKG_Scintill - Town I don't think you're crazy enough to play like you did as Mafia. #personal opinion gtg work 'later. |
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Just because I wasn't shooting off post after post about wanting to lynch someone doesn't equate to me having any less of a conviction in wanting to kill them. I was vocal about it with you and I also expressed feeling shitty about it but you clearly omitted those posts. Honestly you should've died in dfr's place but people tend to go full on cheesecake at eod every single time. |
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man I was smashed last night fuck - catching up and putting some shit together for analysis
I may have been mistaken about Yosh that was leaning more towards Haku's read/pressure I'm still confident dfr was scum, especially with the shit show at EoD, in plain terms it made me more comfortable with everyone votes swaying then his stagnancy. Botchi says there were 3 wolves left before he died, moving from there on given the deaths I would say it's probably x/1 or x/2, though I can't be too sure. I do believe I can ping out one more wolf for today, that's the case I'll be putting together this evening for you gentlemen |
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Don't I always? I'm about 99% sure I know who is a wolf, putting that case together like I said I would, but also trying to analyze the 1/x 2/x possibility to put a partner to the name I have in mind
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Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
In the mean time I'm wondering;
who would feel intimidated by Roundbox, Xel, and YoshL - in that order evidently. No newbs stand out in that category |
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@Haku read this again.
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The way I see it, roundbox was random, xel was to frame V, and yoshl because haku thought he was mafia at EOD, along with red and me. Quote:
I see it the opposite rzr, I think the SK is a weaker player. |
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Do you think it's beyond Zenith to fear kill N0/N1? |
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Nvm roundbox was the SK kill
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Well, either way, arguing why V is a better kill isn't something I thought over twice, but it makes just as much sense. GOAT status and such still fresh, he would be intimidating to most people and I think he is (look at his strong choice of words at the beginning).
But personally I'm more intimidated by roundbox lol, V is just big and scary, sometimes I feel like roundbox sees right through me. I don't know who else may feel this way, but I imagine if that's a portion of the drive for roundbox's kill it implies a veteran behind it |
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haha ninjad a moot point woop
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On phone but will take a look at him later
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Also, why would anybody ever fearkill Xelnya over like Vendetta
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Don't think Xel was fearkill
SK thought he was a wolf, plain and simple SK does not care about blues right? Besides maybe the doctor |
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roundbox was obviously random, I think yoshl/xel was the SK hunting wolves
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random or fearkill idk doesn't matter to me
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Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD
Okay so I had prepared a rather lengthy synopsis of my reads here, and I will tl;dr them to the best of my ability as they gotten eaten by the server earlier:
Suspects: DBP, V (mainly as SK), Xiz (big maybe on this one). Town: Charu, Haku the rest - Red b: Still seems to fit his normal town game meta, but th elack of fruition bothers me, he's not putting his effort into town's goals, but this is an inactivity issue not a content issue like with.. SKG: why are you still alive? Lol, you and reuben. Personally I'm inclined to seek a lynch on backpack as I'm tinfoiling him hard lately, but albeit his actions seem so far from what I anticipate his scum game to be, i,e, he acts towny. If I had to put someone on the block at this moment... it would probably be SKG over backpack simply because I don't see backpack's death as helpful to town as SKG's. If dbp is scum/sk that will continue to make itself evident (stay wary). Same with "v" or whoever. At this point I must personally concede here. Nor role wise, but I admit I am ashamed of making this decision. My wife and I are working things out (for the better), and I am moving back to Boston as I think I mentioned earlier. I said I would do my best to play mobile, whic I have over the last weeks without a PC, but now this is my last day at work and I won't have any type of access aside from mobile. I have seen the trouble with competing while phone posting, and given the measure of the gravity of the game here I find it in my best interest to request Jrodd as my replacement. I do not think I will have enough time after tonight to dedicate myself to fulfilling my goal with this game, and that requires the time and focus to commit to the new meta I've worked on establishing, and friends, and a sold last few games. I'm not sure when I'll be able to return, and I will watch from mobile to keep in the swing of things, but again for now I must concede. In the event Jrodd is unable to play or show up in a timely fashion please inform me and I will try to play the best I can, but tomorrow I start packing and loading the uHaul and Sunday I move, so, wish me luck, and best of luck to all of you! This is also the only time I've ever requested a sub, so take that with a grain if salt please, I don't do this light heartedly. |
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@ Xiz: ty, I was expecting something else, if that's all there is, there's not much else to say. You're clear to me.
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@ Red Blaster: Any other reasons to pin DBP besides feeling like it? @ rzr: Looks like life is getting in your way. So, gl with that. ... So, I've been just tunneling on the 5-6 active players and not being sure of what to do. I'll just vote reuben_tate to remind the others that he does, in fact, exist in this game. |
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YoshL had no reason to die overall. That was just a really weird Day 2.
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btw, do you have something to say about Zenith's play Day 1 and why it ended up like it did?
Because, if it's a ragequit and he's scum as YoshL pointed out. I'm still tempted to go back on that vote. |
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I think he's very likely not town aligned. |
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we're looking for wolves |
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Therefore you would take lynch priority over rzr because of it. |
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I'll take that risk
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I feel extremely unmotivated to play right now, ugh
Um... My main beef is still that Botchi read DPB as town, yet didn't call him out when he started to soft extremely hard and change his vote from me to him. Like why has no one in this game speculated on that but me? I feel like that's an extremely important point to solve whatever is going on. |
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Sigh...
Alright, don't know exactly how much good this will do, but... considering the events that have happened and the explanation that backpack gave as well as Xiz did coming off. I really have no idea if it's two wolves working with each other or... I just don't know, and I'm really mad about it. And it's because Botchi READ DPB TOWN AND THEN CLAIMED LAST MINUTE Like, uuuuuuuuuugh |
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Yeah Charu, I've been rereading and I'm pretty much on the same page as you on that as well. I want to (finally) give him a lock clear Town read from here because I feel like he couldn't be anything else from his countless posting.
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Actually I'm tired to wait for you to provide content, deal with pressure.
SKG_Scintill If you don't say anything good in the next hour, my vote is locked on you until EoD because I'm working 12h and won't be here to remove it. |
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I have said over and over again that the only reason I can think of is zenith being dumb, making a super confident read that has no basis and ragequitting because people don't believe him because I'm town |
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I don't mind
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And hello, did you glance over the read thing? I really wish I knew why he read backpack as town given was acting the way he was way before EoD happened. |
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2. The 5 votes at that point: Quote:
YoshL is rip. Xiz is like Town by association with DBP. DBP is pmuch untouchable today imo. AA is Null/Town because of mostly Day 1 Zenith. The only potential wolf here for me is you rofl.. |
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Because no content.
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My call is not 100% absolute truth therefore even if AA "happened" to be Mafia. He's currently more useful than you by trying to provide content.
Therefore you take priority over him. |
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Alternatively, if someone is very confident in making me vote for someone until EoD. I'm up for suggestions.
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Charu, if you're here, I'm willing to blindly vote for whoever you want.
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