Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
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i'm making a mq on blind for wolf interactions and this is super ballsy to say if it's more meaningful than just tilting sunfan |
Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
AlSo WhErE iS fUnNyGuRl AnD wHy Is ShE nOt DoInG aNyThInG
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Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
As a heads up I may pass out before eod
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Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
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he did the exact opposite btw, he said Tps should not only always hide, but hide in a manner that attempts to incentivize the wolf and the serial killer to try and find him tonight. In short, and you just have to read it again to understand it, the incentive is actually a decentive because they can lose if they make their best play. its very outside the box, and its not something I think I could've thought of without seriously dedicating time to it. It impressed me. But no, he did not sheep you. |
Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
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Under the NL approach, a 2:1:1 is relatively unpalatable to the bad guys, but they would still have a chance. I feel like the Hide strategy and its implications (potentially bringing about the 1:1:1 more quickly) would make them more likely to hunt each other. And even under the draw logic, I feel like it gives us a better chance of getting to the draw, rather than the loss. I mean, under that logic, we might as well abandon the NL strategy altogether. At least one known town player has to survive until tomorrow, which means they could lead a self-vote and force the 1:1:1. That seems distasteful, and I was hesitant to point it out until now, but if we're arguing 1:1:1 is a goal state... (There's also no risk of it backfiring in a Tps as lone wolf world since this assumes multiple night kills, and multiple night kills confirms Tps as town.) |
Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
man this is like so fucked
Precarious this feels townie but I feel like I have to lynch you anyways |
Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
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Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
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Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
This is why no lynching is good???
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Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
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Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
If we No Lynch today, we gain no additional flip information. Everyone's suspicions stay the same.
In the night, there will be zero to two night kills. (Theoretically, both wolf and SK--assuming the latter exists--could target a Hiding Tps, or the SK could while the wolf targets an SK still wearing a vest. Actually, that raises a further complication--it's possible the wolf knows who the SK is if they previously attacked someone who isn't Tps and the attack failed). Assuming the SK scenario, that could leave us with a bunch of scenarios, but the presumable worst case would be 3:1:1. N.B. I would strongly argue against my Hide strategy if we NL today, since there's no longer a risk of a 2:1:1 if we go into the night 5:1:1. 3:1:1 is uncomfortable. We would presumably be down to one remaining known town player, with two unknown town players, the wolf, and the SK. We would have made no progress on the game state from where we are now, and I feel like I'd be a probable lynch target still. Obviously 3:1:1 is a worst case scenario in this setting, but a mislynch at 3:1:1 puts us at 2:1:1 going into the night, which resembles the 2:1:1 + NL the next day strategy. Basically, NL today kind of just punts the issue a couple rl days down the road, while giving the bad guys a slightly larger share of the voting pool. |
Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
There's still the risk of a 2 1 1 tho, in fact I think its higher with ur plan
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Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
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h. (also i was looking for freezin discrediting one of blind's posts but it's actually just that freezin changed his read, oop) |
Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
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I'm not in favor of it. |
Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
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Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
should town be in f5
if you fuckers sleep I'll be so disappointed at that point, you try and lynch one of the two scum, and pray if you miss. if its f3 and tps is alive but the game is still going and we haven't lynched any scum between this post and f3, obviously just lynch tps because the game hasn't ended in a draw and that would happen if a serial killer is alive. |
Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
wow i quoted some posts in an order obv i should read the other two but blind doesn't feel like a wolf from these (i talk out some game state stuff toward the end too). doesn't clear him from SK, but what would |
Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
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i'm coming off a game where a wolf named all his partners and no town in saying "still waiting for x, y, and z to catch up" so list construction is something people intentionally foil sometimes |
Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
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Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
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he reacted to his vt rand in the turbo by first post claiming asceticizer lul |
Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
Votes from post 2564 to post 2820
Night in 1:58:44 ---
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Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
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Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
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Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
I am confused by what you quoted there
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Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
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Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
^was at inD
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Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
nice ninja
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Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
I am studying
I will be checking in from time to time but gotta cram y'all |
Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
tps you fine with hiding behind fg if we lynch a scum?
do you want it to be someone else? |
Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
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5 people, 3 of them are wolves, 1 of them is town, so the fifth is ? then walked back by not counting in the next post |
Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
colorz leading up to d2 eod (only vote after this is dbp moving to wc) without any living players colored in terms of looks, funny seems slightly better than blind and prec who are relatively equal; she hops off cel as dbp argues against the wagon and it fizzles, but xiz would have to be fine hanging out on funnywolf for the same reasons at a point when it seems like they could make a lot of lynches happen at an uncertain eod |
Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
man i know i'm late but the state of this day feels kinda sad funny posts; they don't feel as clearing to me as the ones with blind but they feel good and i'm a lil worried that's most of what i'll find, is just varying amounts of WOW CLEAR on people and have to sort that out so currently blind looks better than funny for not being a wolf |
Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
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pretty high on xiz suddenly here, and reading it again you also seem pretty high on sunfan given your later posting is saying he's got the inconsistency thing going on with his read on syhto i've basically said this before but i'm saying it again |
Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
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Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
hello yes I am still bad at French
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Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
can we get some votes down just so its more clear where people lie
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Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
ayy i made an eod
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Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
Tps if you're here 2 more posts would make me feel good and nice because right now I am slightly apprehensive
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Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
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Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
Current vote count?
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Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
i feel like ind's some sort of scum who thinks i'm an easy person to lynch
like every scum ever really haha |
Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
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Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
1 vote on prec no others?
I feel worse about [TWGVOTE] funny [/TWGVOTE] than precarious |
Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
Funny
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Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
im back to the chat about the mass claim wondering out how wolves figured out there was an SK bc otherwise one of them would also have to fake claim or something or freezin's just outed as discussed
i don't think the posts about tps potentially not adding to the mass claim really hit me before |
Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
woah woah woah wait tps don't do that
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Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
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i basically have to baseline suspect you to do my due diligence |
Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
the last three to claim before tps were...me, prec and fg in that order
lmao that's not helpful at all, wolves had to know |
Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
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from there, there's a 50% chance that one of you's the sk due to pure chance i'm fine with lynching either of you |
Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
I really don't think I can support the fg lynch
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Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
thanks for always having my back sunfan
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Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
I'm honestly pretty frustrated that I'm not being listened to but w/e
I think several people have said that at least once this game |
Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
General thoughts:
From my perspective, there is a pool of three players which necessarily contains both a wolf and an SK. My thoughts on Blind have been made clear, and I'm not going to reiterate them, save to note that his absence late is telling. Once he feels he's out of danger, he feels no further need to participate. In general, his actions have been self-serving, even if his activity level is apparently atypical of a wolf-Blind. In part, that's because I think he's the serial killer. He has repeatedly stated that he's not concerned about being lynched absent pressure--because the actual gamestate doesn't matter to him. That leaves a wolf between inD and Funny. inD is difficult to evaluate. I've been trying to ISO him (with time becoming an issue), and I feel my lack of meta-knowledge here is hurtful. His temperament has been pretty even--his tone was sort of aggressive in the joke phase, but since then has been even--almost too even. However, he seems to be really interacting with the content; he was the first person to meaningfully look at my Blind case; even if I didn't agree with all his conclusions, I feel like he read it. I'm not sure what to make of his late cases here; they seem well thought out, but this game has made me cynical and I wonder if they're a reaction to a gamestate dangerous to an anti-town inD. Funny is...problematic. Upon review, none of her posts are actually that offensive to me. When I did the long post linking her to Blind, for example, I actually started by looking for wolf-tells, since I had them both linked at the time. But while I could do a few things, they ultimately felt flimsy. The problem with Funny is that her overall performance doesn't fit a town player, even if her individual posts work. What gave her town cred in the mid game (late D2) is ultimately what leads me to believe she's the wolf--all that effort, actual reads and work, went out the window as soon as Funny ceased to be a viable target. There are other possible reasons for this, but to me it feels like she stepped off the gas once the pressure disappeared. Overall, I think she's the wolf. I would lynch in the order Blind>Funny>InD. |
Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
I woke up
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Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
but like also think about it fmpov guys. if im wrong and we lynch the other town in the pool of me ind prec and blind, then i know who the wolf and sk are next phase
i guess we also could... lose if that happens |
Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
precarious, you remember danganronpa right????
that was my last wolf game. consistent effort the whole time. i was *never* on the chopping block |
Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
man i'm not gonna finish in time
post inc with what i do have ig |
Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
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Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
my order rn is lynch prec, reevaluate potentially, if I don't need to reevaluate I'd lynch inD
Tps, plz hide behind funnygurl tonight if she is not lynched today and we lynch a scum today if she is lynched today and is scum, plz hide behind inDheart |
Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
I am going to sheep whatever sunfan says this phase about voting.
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Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
tl;dr prec doesn't seem to talk to the wolves much; would need to see how much of the reverse happens with more time besides them just saying his posts are gross without much else |
Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
again, can we pls get some votes to know where people stand thanks
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Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
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Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
So, assuming I'm lynched, the above is my best guess. Obviously it deviates from the norm. I would emphasize following the Hide plan, and that TPS commit to it publicly.
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Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
Votes from post 2564 to post 2865
Night in 0:08:37 ---
:00 good :01 bad |
Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
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Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
i feel best about blind not being a wolf, at least
i am prepared to vote prec, i was just hoping i could get that out to give him some chance of response |
Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
precarious
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Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
btw if it goes to 2-1-1 make sure to sleep
Or if it goes to 3-1-0 |
Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
Blind
I will change my vote to avoid being lynched if that becomes a thing, but I doubt it. TPS, please commit publicly to hiding in the event of my lynch and town flip. |
Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
Didnt wolf precarious give up at this point when he had so much pressure on him in the last game? him still fighting makes me think he may be ok..
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Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
if we miss, don't hide Tps, but I think you wanted to do that already
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Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
Votes from post 2564 to post 2874
Night in 0:04:32 ---
:00 good :01 bad |
Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
Well actually I guess that may just be because hes the only chance he has now idk
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it's okay though. if i were scum i'd be trying this hard too to implicate someone |
Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
Prec not self pres'ing is :thinking:
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Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
Funny who you voting for
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