Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

prec did you write that post before tps claimed his actions

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

I think that there is a decent ish chance we lose if we lynch this phase
Aka 1/3
I'm not a gambler

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

Get drunk with me at ltwg tonight friend

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

The first part is def right. If we lynch correctly today he should hide behind u, prec, fg or blind and we should decide between those 4.

I do think he should hide tonight tho if we miss.

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

The chance is actually 0%, but u mean get put in that nasty f4 situation.

Which is probably like 5% at most.

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

hmm

i guess i'm just worried whoever's left in that endgame (which could be kingmaker) wouldn't know who tps hid behind, bc 2/3 of his eligible targets would be scum, so that's effectively his chance to die if he's hiding in the POE

like, count him as 2/3 of a night death, then scum factions either stack or they don't, so that's 5/3 or 8/3 deaths in the night (i'm assuming these are all town deaths as prev said)

i feel like the most he'd be doing at that point if he's alive is be able to confirm who's scum to each other, and if the SK is vested then they just win, because you can't have a lynch that day

tl;dr we should just lynch correctly

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

ind is my friend

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

Celery go away, you've been nothing but scared this entire game, grow some and make a move.

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

oh...

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

Votes from post 2564 to post 2729
Night in 25:17:45
---

• Votes -- Lynch -- Voters
• 1 -- Precarious -- the sun fan (55)
• 6 -- not voting -- blindreper1179 (29), Celirra (50), Funnygurl555 (10), inDheart (17), Precarious (3), Tps222 (2)

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

It's ok Celery I bet u have average-sized testicles.

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

Also because I forgot to put this in the OP and there have been various asks about this:

If final 3 is a Town, Wolf, and SK, the game ends in a draw.

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

Yes. It doesn't change my analysis much though--actually, it reinforces a couple ideas. As I see has been pointed out, it completely clears Sun and Cel in all scenarios.

If a Hider hides behind scum or SK, they die. Tps is either scum or a hider; if he's a wolf, then he's the only wolf (in which case Sun and Cel, like everyone else, must be town). If he's not a wolf, then he's telling the truth (he mechanically can't be an SK), in which case he did hide behind Sun and Cel, in which case his continued survival clears them.

That leaves a pool of only four players that must contain both the wolf and the SK. (From my perspective, that pool is three, but whatever).


*****************
*****************


If we lynch correctly, that leaves one remaining anti-town player (as far as I can tell it wouldn't really matter if it's the wolf or the SK). Assuming a nightkill on a confirmed player, that would leave tomorrow at 4:1 with two players still confirmed, meaning there would be a pool of three players that must contain a wolf/SK. A mislynch there would take it to 3:1, and an NK to 2:1. At that point we would be down to one confirmed player, who would be the tiebreaker as the remaining town and anti-town inevitably accuse each other.

If we mislynch today, things get fairly confusing. We would enter the night at 4:1:1, with three confirmed (well, two, but for the purpose of this analysis Tps can be considered confirmed) town, and there's a decent chance the wolf and SK both target a confirmed townie. But, it's possible their kills overlap, or one or both chooses to take a shot in the dark at the other, given how volatile the next day looks.

Worst case scenario, we go into tomorrow at 2:1:1, with one confirmed player remaining. And...I just realized that's more dire than I initially thought, since 1:1:1 is apparently a three way loss, and 2:1 just turns into a 1:1 loss by the next day. But I think I see a possibility for brinkmanship here...

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

I'm just going to say it; I think that if we mislynch today, our best option is to have Tps hide behind Sun or Cel again--without saying which one.

If we mislynch, we would go into the night at 4:1:1. Successful town kills by both wolf and SK would leave us with only two possible timelines: a 1:1:1 draw-loss, and a 1:1 loss with a definite anti-town winner.

However, if Tps hides and both Sun and Cel die, then we would be left with a 1:1:1 scenario tomorrow--unpalatable to both wolf and SK. This has the potential to encourage them to search for each other, rather than target guaranteed town players. (It's also possible they both target one of Sun or Cel, whether or not that is the one with Tps, leading to the dreaded 2:1:1, or possibly to a 3:1:1, which is still town winnable. If one of them hits the other, or they both hit each other, that simplifies things further in the former case, and results in an immediate town win in the latter.)

The advantage here is that by forcing three known town players into two "spaces", we can

(1.) scare them away from the confirmed town with the possibility of the inadvertent 1:1:1
(2.)Reduce the likelihood of them hitting two unique town by chance, by providing only two potential targets rather than three

It's possible I've overlooked something, so this idea should be discussed and vetted, but I think it has some potential.

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

I would be ok with a prec lynch but would rather a no lynch by heaps and bounds

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

the fact that he's ignoring the pressure and resorting to objective mechanics worries me

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

It's pre, he dies today.

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

I'm working out the stuff we can be sure of first.

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

I'm sure this will be a reasonable assessment.

Emphasis mine.

First of all, I prefer Prec. Having said that, internal inconsistency in your first paragraph isn't a great sign. So you're sure on me, then

Hence you think I'm a serial killer and not a wolf, I suppose. Fine, but your assumption already breaks down.

It's true that, generally speaking, a wolf and a serial killer will approach their anti-town agenda in different ways. All wolf actions are colored by the fact that in the grand scheme of things, they ideally want to protect each other. A serial killer is unburdened by accounting for teammates, but also faces the reality that their death is an instant loss. Hence, while a serial killer is incentivized to catch scum, their need to do so is less pressing than the town's, since their own survival is their first concern. In a serial killer role, even more than a wolf role, I absolutely wouldn't have pushed so hard for your lynch, because it would make me doubly a target. If I'm right, I put a target on my back as an effective (and therefore dangerous) player. If I'm wrong, I compromise my own credibility while heightening my visibility, making me a more likely lynch target.

If you had recall my most recent game (Fire Emblem), you might have noticed I only became especially vocal and aggressive when I was under fire. Until then, it behooved me to blend in as best as possible. That is not the case here, because survival alone is useless. We need to catch wolves (or a serial killer, assuming its existence), and in you, I believe I've caught one.


***********************************
***********************************


Your first two attempts to parse my game rely on the joke phase. Anyone pointing to the joke phase meaningfully in D4 isn't arguing in good faith. More to the point, anyone paying attention to post-FE deadchat might have noticed that I expressed an intent to post more casually. That didn't really last, because I find a lot of that ends up as distracting white noise, but your approach here is intellectually dishonest.


**********************************
**********************************


Once again, any potential argument you might raise is undermined by its internal inconsistency and its intellectual dishonesty. You're writing to a preordained conclusion--just like you did on D2--and it shows.

Any D1 reads are of course limited by the relative lack of information at the time, but I want you to consider this.

Here, it's suspicious that I lean wolf on a wolf.

Here, it's suspicious that that I lean null on a wolf. Although Blind's reading completely divorces it from the fact that it was a replacement slot (remember Anti-Pearl?) and that my suspicion was due entirely to a lack of compelling reads elsewhere. It's in the very thing you quoted.

No one has ever read a town player as wolfy before! Except apparently reading a wolf as wolfy is itself wolfy, so I can only conclude that having any wolf reads as all is wolfy.

It's also a strongly hypocritical position on Blind's part, considering he wolfread DBP on D2 for a wolf-misread, which turned out obviously to be incorrect. So not only is someone misreading someone not a perfect predictor (obviously), but he himself misread someone--by appealing to that same flawed logic!

But while his criticism of my reads list is weak (and superficial too--appealing only to the results rather than the content), what's more telling is his need to reemphasize his own position on the list.

It's strange that he emphasizes his own town read there, as if he feels the need to reinforce his own standing now, when it appears to be separate from the other cited entries, which speak to an obviously thrown together case.


***********************************
***********************************


This is an actually valid point. In that instance, I copy-pasted the available list without actually paying it a lot of attention--as I said in that very same assessment, theorycraft didn't really have a role to play that early on. You can probably tell from my posts today that things have changed. At the time, the copy-paste was more an assessment of Blind's post than a meaningful reflection on the OP content.


***********************************
***********************************


It's pretty obvious in hindsight that Xiz didn't like the post because he was being wolf-read; I even said that a time when I stated it was mush. And I stated that because it was. It's difficult to do a D1 roster run, since there's no contextual information (votes, flips, role actions) and conversations are limited to that day. This game was especially annoying in that regard, since most players weren't especially distinctive on D1. I believe that's the reason we ended up with a Gradiant-Sun Fan kitb scenario--because people were pulled toward active, visible players.

More to the point, however, you failed to actually pull apart the actual list, despite my own dissatisfaction with it, because that would require a level of engagement you're not prepared to actually defend. I'd say that this post of yours is towny, that it represents a visible and aggressive (if not genuine) effort, but we all get by now this you're making a meta play here, and the lack of real analysis is telling.


***********************************
***********************************


Wary, not weary. Just a little pet peeve of mine. In terms of the actual argument though, why is this here? If everyone does something, it's NAI--which is to say, neither a piece of your actual case, nor a counterpoint that might suggest you're actually considering the evidence before you. It's just there to take up space--and maybe to come off as sinister on my part, even if the content doesn't support it.

Or maybe it's a meta-defense of yourself, given your repeated assertions that you're obviously town, that everyone knows it, and that you're not scared because people aren't voting you. Which I have to say feels a bit forced.


***********************************
***********************************


Incidentally, this is another instance of you sheeping someone, despite your protests to the contrary. In this instance, it was you copying an observation Funny made. You might have noticed that in my case on you, had you ever bothered to read or respond to it. But that would be effort-intensive, and since my points actually required thought, difficult for you to do successfully.

As to my actual availability, my brother was visiting last weekend, and I don't get to see him in person very often. I had to clean up before he arrived, and after he drove home again, I ended up getting busy with other things. There's a reason I'm not interested in playing turbos here--a lot of the time, it simply wouldn't be feasible schedule-wise.



***********************************
***********************************


Okay, I'm calling you out on this right now, because while it's not alignment indicative, it's fundamentally shitty play that drags down the whole community--and I'm not just blaming this on you. I'm not even blaming this on the TWG community. I'm blaming this on internet mafia as a whole--although you're certainly going to hear about right now.

This idea that changing your opinion is somehow bad is the most corrosive, anti-town perspective anywhere, and yet everyone seems to jump on it. Somehow, reevaluating is seen as a sign of weakness, of inconsistency, of convenient action. And that's bullshit. Reevaluation is a sign of engagement and interacting with the game. People should be reevaluating, reengaging, and--yes--second-guessing constantly.

Do you think I'm absolutely 100% convinced of your guilt--now, or even in the previous two days? Of course not. And anyone that claims certainly of anything absent mechanical proof is lying about it. In your case, your fundamentally dishonest approach to the game, and your aggression absent actual thought, makes me believe you aren't concerned with uncovering the truth--which speaks to an anti-town perspective. But even if you are town, you're not actually trying to solve things, and you're certainly not thinking about them. And in the case of this whole post, is there any question you made it because of my attacks on you?

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

That's part 1 of my response. This is taking some time. In the meantime, I'd love to see Blind's response to my case, but I'm not exactly hopeful.

What would I hope is that everyone actually reads the cases--his and mine--and observes the actual difference in them. Why am I pulling his apart? Because I can. Because it's a weak case that he's hoping people won't bother to actually read.

So by all means, please do.

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

so many words

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

Blind makes a long case

Funny: "you go Blind!"

I wish I was paraphrasing.

Prec makes a long case.

Funny: I could read it, but maybe then I'd have to reconsider my position.

****

Seriously, at least pretend to try. Blind's case is all opportunism and one sentence ripostes to bigger ideas, but at least it's something. I know you can try, since you were doing so on D2. But was that just because you were under pressure at that point?

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

i'm just watchin' the ltwg game rn precarious. i will try

(you should join too!!)

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

This particular comment of yours isn't actually scummy, because I can see what you're getting at. But you misunderstood the point of the the statement. It wasn't about Syhto so much as it was about the conversation around her.

It felt like people brushed Syhto aside too easily--even if people were town-reading her, the case made seemed to be largely ignored. And that behavior struck me as odd; at the time, no one could have been sure of her alignment, and even if they were, why not actively engage the topic?


*********************************
*********************************


Do you even read the things you cite?

This is the difference between your "approach" and mine. I recognized that Gradiant's list was very OMGUS-heavy--his list and his voters were almost the same. Because he flipped town, we know he wasn't trying to trick us, but he also had no special information. His list, insofar as they voted a town player, was worth considering, but little more than that.

By contrast, you argued that we should lynch exclusively in that pool of players--a pool that conveniently excluded yourself, despite having your vote elsewhere for a long, long time. But fine. People can get carried away. I wouldn't have faulted you so much for that, if it weren't blatantly obvious that you were building toward a preordained conclusion. You wolfread basically everyone in the Gradiant list--a ridiculous suggestion--and it's clear that such reads were meant to promote your suggestion. Basically, "if they're all wolves, why not lynch in the pool."

This is an outright lie. I never said it was a good idea, nor intimated that. I suggested that considering the players in the pool was a valid and relevant exercise. That should be clear from the quotes.


I wolfed with Xiz in FE. Regardless of his flip, I'm comfortable in saying that he made meaningful adjustments to his game. Did he still sound like Xiz? Of course; I'd argue most players are somewhat recognizable in how they post. Maybe not enough to guess their identities anonymously (think back to Danganronpa), but enough that they sound like themselves. Xiz was much more "Chaos Xiz" in FE than he was in this game. Look at the last couple days of FE--he was heavily invested in his jokes. By contrast, while there was some of that here, he was much more game-leaning this time around. I thought that represented a significant enough behavioral change that it indicated a town Xiz. I was wrong, and I'll keep that in mind in the future.



*********************************
*********************************


Yes, because

(1) it conflicted with your grand plan
(2) you left it in place forever
(3) you said you would change it because you were outright pressured on the inconsistency, then waited
(4) the whole plan felt opportunistic, and not even committing to it by vote immediately was even moreso. This is especially the case when your Cel vote had been effectively defanged by your stated intent to change votes. I believe what you were really doing was fishing for traction, and were afraid to commit to it beforehand.

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

In that case, my apologies. Wasn't even aware it was going on.

I'll have to get over my fear of face cam to actually do one myself I guess.

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

Anyway, stopping here for the night.

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

I really don't like how precarious is focusing solely on blind and has been pretty much all game... feels like it's a case of having one goal in mind to meet and only needs that one goal

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

Votes from post 2564 to post 2747
Night in 12:51:18
---

• Votes -- Lynch -- Voters
• 1 -- Precarious -- the sun fan (56)
• 6 -- not voting -- blindreper1179 (30), Celirra (53), Funnygurl555 (12), inDheart (17), Precarious (12), Tps222 (2)

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

Precarious, I do want to say given you seem a little frustrated that I have read all of your cases/larger posts

I know blind seems odd. He will seem odd to most players that haven't played with him before. You can play TWG looking for the things you've pointed out on him, and its a perfectly valid way to play the game.

But he's never a wolf anymore. Meta is the main reason on my end, but given yesterday's EOD wagons, I don't think he can ever be partners with Xiz.

I would really, really love to see you make some posts of that caliber on another player, like inD for example.

If ur on some kind of personal mission to prove that blind does things for silly reasons when he gets emotionally charged, then I think you can understand that it doesn't really help other players very much.

Maybe you can Kill Bill pt. 2 that follow up post of yours on blind; I'd appreciate some other projects between the two of them.

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

i am gonna be on a boat for a couple hours this afternoon

i want funny to do something. i'll do something myself when i'm back here

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

man, the dumbest thing keeps bothering me
I almost feel like Xiz was telling me I was wrong on one of blind/fg

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

I'm gonna be honest guys. I'm done debating with prec. I did want I needed to do. I didn't answer xiz because I thought he was wolfy, and I'm done with prec. I think he's scum, and sitting here debating with him doesnt help

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

i still think we should no lynch..........................

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

shut up

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

Chill, blind. Just one notch lower is all it needs to be.

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

Celery, the game of TWG is played by town during the day phase. Sleeping and hoping the scum do what u want is a recipe for disaster. The SK especially is decentivized to do what u want them to do here. And as fate would have it, it's incredibly easy for them to hit a town because you and I cannot br wolves or the serial killer.

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

I'm not mad, or being a dick per say.

I get you can't read tone through posts, so that's my bad.


It was more like the "shhuuttt upp omg whyy" kinda shut up. Not the "shut up, you're bad why do you talk".

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

shut up

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

would it ease your mind celery if Tps didn't hide tonight unless a scum is lynched today?
town has 0% chance of losing tonight if we mislynch if he doesn't hide behind someone

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

Fine! >=(

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

this is not true
if town is lynched this phase and tps does not hide, we would be down to 4 after the two nk's

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

4 is the 2:1:1 situation potentially

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

UGH I'm trying here

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

guys look.

If we don't lynch; Either sunfan, celirra, tps, or myself are being nightkilled. Now, whether they get stacked or not doesn't matter. We're still stuck with the people we are not sure of.

If we do lynch, we have the BEST chance at town winning this game. and I get its a high risk high reward kind of. But if we hit a scum, we get a major boost and are ahead of the game.

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

I am not a gambler and I think the safe choice is the best choice

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

we'll so long as we have more people who aren't gamblers, then I'm ok

gamblers being people not comfortable with taking a risk with around 5% chance of strong downside, and 95% chance of good to strong upside

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

surely you understand that the SK and the wolf want to kill towns tonight, Celery.

Our position is not a bad one, but if we sleep, we lose that advantage

we know that between inD, fg, blind and precarious, there is both a serial killer and a wolf (assuming Tps is real)

that's 1/2 for hitting a wolf completely discarding reads. Surely that outweighs your fear of a """"""1/3""""""

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

We are currently at 7. Likely 5/1/1.
let me evaluate two scenarios, with their subscenarios:



Lynch this phase

Proper lynch
The absolute best case scenario. 5/1/0 (or 5/0/1, either way) after vote, down to 4/0/1 (ignoring fringe case of tps surviving with hiding). This is great! Hurray! Theoretically for me I have a 50% chance of this working regardless of reads, indeed.


Mislynch
The absolute worst case scenario. 4/1/1 after vote, down to fourpossibilities after night kills (tps pls dont hide if this happens):

4/0/0: Wow this is great, but super unlikely I think.
3/1/0: Well hey, technically the same as the proper lynch route, but still not most likely
2/1/1: This sucks, we lose unless we get lucky.
3/1/1: Vote stacking, lucky us!

Out of these options, #3 and #4 are the most likely. #4 is not gg, but #3 is; it would effectively be another coin flip and I dont like relying on double coin flips.


Sleep this phase

We would be 5/1/1 with all assumptions right now. That leads to all the end results above, but with a +1 to the town count. That sounds pretty nice! That +1 would eliminate the double coinflip scenario from being potentially lethal.


And I don't think it would detriment us at all either. We would still have the same number of lynches at our disposal if we sleep on average, but it is a much safer bet as well due to the lack of the lethal outcome possibility.


I don't know why you want to risk a loss when we don't have to.

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

i think thesunfan's got this

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

yes, the thing is
you don't discard reads

blind is never a wolf and tbh I'll go as far as to say that he's never the SK either, something that I think you agree with, so lets discard him
funny is pretty much never a wolf imo (though she can be SK, I don't think its likely)

so, as long as we lynch Prec or inD, I'm a happy boy

of course it requires me to be right about my reads but that's what this whole fuckin TWG thing is about

having good reads as town and convincing others that your reads are right (equally as important is knowing when you're wrong and when other people have good cases for good reasons etc)

the chance of not hitting one of those two scum today (again, assuming Tps is telling the truth) is just so minuscule to me.

As you have pointed out, we have the same number of lynches on average (I haven't done the math and it sounds icky so I'll just assume you're right). The reason why you still want to lynch is because we could lose the average number of lynches, which is far more important than anything else. Yes, we can be put into a horrible position, one that I'll ever go so far as to call hopeless even though there is hope in it for the sake of argument.

But is so unlikely that I can't see how its worth potentially losing a lynch, and almost certainly losing 2 towns, for the sake of not losing the game because it puts us in a situation where, guess what, we're in a pretty bad position tomorrow almost all of the time.

You're evaluating each possibility equally.

The wolf is (most likely, its really up to them based on the information they posess etc etc but they """""mechanically""""" probably find themself in a situation where the 2-1-1 split is not favored for them) NOT going to try and shoot the SK. They are going to shoot one of you or me.
The Sk is NOT going to try and shoot the wolf. They are going to shoot you or me because they WANT to be in the 2-1-1 split because it gives them the best chance of winning (most likely).

The possibilities are not equal. Town will be severely behind if we sleep; scum WANT to trigger the worst possible scenario for town, and its incredibly easy for them to do that since they know that both you and I are exactly VT and that's the kind of player they want to shoot.

So its a 50/50 that they shoot the same one between us, lets say. 3/1/0 Is the same as lynching properly, SO WHY NOT TRY AND LYNCH PROPERLY WHEN ITS NEVER BEEN EASIER IN THE WHOLE GAME. Saves us having to coinflip between a playable but pretty silly 3-1-0/3-0-1 and an absolutely terrible 2-1-1.

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

sunfans right ya know.

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

also worth being scared of:
Tps is at 2 posts atm so
I hope he gets like 8 more that would be great

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

Alright, home and caught back up.

We absolutely should be lynching today, I understand what Celirra is saying but I agree more with Sunfan's line of reasoning here, like the ol' Coach Herm Edwards famously said "You play to win the game".

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

I also agree that a no-hide is the safest corresponding move for tonight.

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

we can lock the game up if we lynch a scum so
if we lynch either the wolf or the SK, you should hide behind say
Funnygurl
to ensure that if she is a wolf or the SK, we can lynch her and win the game the next phase.

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

I'm debating whether I'd want to go with Funny/Blind/indheart for today's lynch, I feel 1/3 is most likely scum.

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

I've yet to see Funny really develop any of their own theories which makes it tough to analyze, Blind is obviously going to die on his precarious is a wolf hill, and indheart seems to be in-line with Cel's mindset.

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

It's strange that you're not considering FG as a possibility for either of those roles in your mind, but I get what you're saying with regards to confirming the last target in that scenario.

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

well, this accounts for that
I think if you're real the only way we lose involves her being one of the two scum so
that accounts for that world

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

here's a controversial opinion
if we lunch this phase (grrrr) and we miss, tps should hide to sack himself so we get a guaranteed draw

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

a draw is a loss in my book

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

wait I just realized a problem

if Tps is fake then waiting until f3 to lynch him doesn't quite work

people would be scared in f5 of the draw happening

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

hmmmmmmmmmmm

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

Idk man whatever I feel like I say I feel like I'm gonna get the flamerino for this but

if there would ever be a team to self-kill one of their own to setup their lowest poster to try and win the game it would be something along the lines of

Xiz- TWG Chaos
Freezin- Chaos Meta
Tps- The man who wolfkilled himself when he was 13, and the man who counterclaimed his own wolfpartner's fakeclaim

idk man

I'm not gonna act on this this phase but its just like

that's a motley crue there

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

if tps sacks himself he cant be the wolf technically

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

i'm not talking about whatever you're talking about

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

why did tps hide behind *me* anyways

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

hello i am pretty sore ow

i have read the first ~50 words of prec's post and am astounded he is not a fan of comparisons to steve prefontaine, that guy was cool

i don't really like limiting options to me or prec but that's probably because me is one of them. i'm probably just gonna do the thing i mentioned earlier and see if i can clear someone in the group

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

Back.

Well the thing about that is...

As far as I can tell, most of the pressure was coming from Blind. What precisely did you want?

As far as other players go, there was this. Which is about as deep a look as anyone has made into another player, absent the continuing discussions between Blind and myself.

Unfortunately, the linked post isn't as useful now, since Funny and Blind can't be scummates--in fact, no one left in the game can be anti-town teammates with each other. I'll be presenting info on both Funny and inD before the day ends, but the fact remains that absolutely nothing I posted about Blind has been refuted. Everyone has continuously town read him--while conveniently staying far away from my case against him. If he's town, refute it.

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

my refutation is that the things that he does are weird

his reasons for his reads make very little sense, and I've said as much to him twice this game

his behavior, and especially his votes (to be honest, the vote part is probably true of a lot of players on FFR) don't always line up with his words

but I don't care that it doesn't

that doesn't inherently make someone wolfy. It makes them a human being, and this is the blindreper1179 that I have played with for years now. This is the guy I stay with when I'm going through Detroit. This is his typical town play.

I am not going through your points one by one but
I hope this will at least serve somewhat of a explanation, if not a refutation

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

it also makes completely zero sense for him to ever be a wolf given the wagon from previous EOD

his behavior, specifically when he claimed Vanilla Town, makes me think he's exactly what he says he is too

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

part 1: post a wolf makes to a wolf about a wolf?

part 2: lol defending freezin while reading him null though. i thought tps' posts from the previous day made it clear enough that we'd have to ask him what is up for actual clarity, and feels like the goalposts shifted here because he did something of analysis in the immediately previous post, which you ignored

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

I see people are generally disinclined to follow the Tps hiding strategy (note that this strategy assumes a mislynch; should we lynch correctly, further consideration of our options is necessary). So let me reiterate why it works--or if it doesn't, please let me know. It's counterintuitive, but that's not a reason to dismiss it.

It's currently either 6:1 or 5:1:1. If it's 6:1, Tps can't actually hide, and there's only one remaining wolf (in that scenario, him). Therefore, if it 6:1, we can mislynch twice, and still be at 2:1 two mornings from now. As a result, a 6:1 scenario isn't (or at least shouldn't be) dangerous to us in a long-term perspective.

If it's 5:1:1, a mislynch takes us to 4:1:1. A lot of things can then happen in the night, but there are three obvious targets for the wolf and SK: the three confirmed or pseudo-confirmed town players. They might try to find each other, but I think we can give them more of a reason to do so.

Let's call the three assumed targets A, B, and C. If wolf targets A, there's only a 1/3 chance SK will do so as well. Admittedly, Tps has the option to hide anyway without telling anyone, but he'd still likely default to the confirmed players, since there would be a 2/3 chance of hiding behind anti-town if he hid elsewhere (assuming he hides at all).

In short, with a mislynch, it seems more probable than not that we're at 2:1:1 tomorrow--which is game over for us. At 2:1:1 there are only two possible timelines--a 1:1:1 draw-loss, or a 2:1 where the remaining antitown can kill with impunity at night, resulting in a 1:1 full loss/antitown victory.

However, if Tps publicly states an intention to hide behind either Sun or Cel (it's important not to say which one), the calculus changes. A 2:1:1 tomorrow is an acceptable if risky outcome for both wolf and SK, because either can still achieve their win condition; they just need to lynch the other. However, things change with the possibility of three town deaths rather than two. If both wolf and SK attack B and C, and hit the 50/50 chance of choosing separate targets, they lose too. We go into tomorrow already at 1:1:1 and the game immediately ends.

Therefore, having Tps hides significantly increases the risk to both wolf and SK of an undesirable outcome. Instead, both would be more incentivized to hunt the other. After all, if the wolf kills the SK, or the SK kills the wolf, then the possibility of the 1:1:1 is averted, and normal win conditions prevail for all remaining players.

There are several downsides here. If one or both attacks A*, we'd still be at 2:1:1 tomorrow--but how is that any worse than the existing possibility. It's also possible under both the No Hide and Hide strategies that both double up on a non-cloaking town player, resulting in 3:1:1, or that one or both kills the other. But in all scenarios other than 2:1:1, we retain a chance to win. Thus, Tps hiding, as far as I can tell, would counterintuitively increase our chances of winning the game.

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

2-1-1 is still a chance to win, its just not a very good one.
Town sleeps and hopes the scum kill one another.

I am in favor of Tps hiding regardless of the result but ultimately it appears that he is not so that discussion doesn't seem too important unless you're trying to convince him that he should.

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

to be honest, I don't think the SK is any more or less incentivized to go after a person because they know the hider is about

the wolf, maybe is, but its a very minor point

I love the outside-the-boxness of the idea though
that's the kind of stuff I love to read/think about

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

I think the biggest problem here is that no one will balk at blowing the game up and forcing a draw. Its just what I figure most people on FFR would do.

"You play to win the game" after all, and if we give them reason to do a specific thing, then they're going to do it most of the time because its their best play. If they don't win as a result of making their best play, I don't think they feel bad that they drew.

That's my take, at least.

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

Ooh, that is interesting! That would force both wolf and SK into a very uncomfortable position. In 2-1-1, it's highly likely that 1 of the 2 town would be confirmed, and one wouldn't--and thus neither wolf nor SK could be absolutely sure which player is which. Since both would have a killing power, they'd have to hope they've correctly identified the other, and haven't been identified themselves. There's certainly a chance that this results in a 2:0 town win, as well as a 1:1:1 and multiple different 1:1 scenarios. However, all of those are losses save the 2:0.

I still would push for the Hide strategy, since the odds still seem to be better, but this is absolutely a better approach to the worst case scenario.

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

Did prec just sheep me