Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

'ight. you go blind 8)

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

I was wrong, sorry.

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

While closing all my tabs of pre's posts, I realized I missed some multiquote buttons. I'm not going back. My case is well enough I think.

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

:thinking:

this is a pretty easy agree

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

maybe now celery will stop bellyaching about thinking im wierd me

I can't be scum or SK if Tps is the hider and hid behind me because then he would die.

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

I'm not too far off of what you want to do, blind
I do think Prec is more likely to be the last wolf than the sk (we have one)

I think if the wolves wolfkilled their own (TPS is the only valid wolf candidate for this plan to not be completely, absolutely disgustingly a terrible idea) last night then that's just like

a really, really, really bad idea because they were both pretty clear, and I probably would've lynched Precarious and inD and then lost, and I definitely think that Precarious just gets hard lynched in that scenario today

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

yeah i like the timing of his declaration-of-intent too, because it distinctly put xiz in the lead

also he'd been throwing xiz into teams and stuff all day

sth doesn't feel quite right about all three wolves being on blind but the xiz voters just feel good in ways

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

I just had a pretty big post get deleted so I'll just make it shorter

Tps needs to claim his hides from other nights.

I am never lynching blind
I am never lynching fg
Celery is probably not a wolf, but he is my prime SK choice. I will elaborate more on this later if I need to, I'm not lynching him today though.
inD is probably not a wolf at this point, sorry blind. If he was a wolf, he would've voted you and not worried about the words he was typing at EOD. Some small things like pointing out that it might be beneficial for Tps to not claim his exact role are things that I don't think he would do as a wolf that were protown.
Precarious came around on fg and blind being the wolves at the same time that Xiz did, or at least it felt that way to me. We know from last game that they're fine making the same pushes together and that Precarious can make empassioned cases on towns when he wants to.

So my order for what I want to do today starts with Tps claiming the hides from previous nights, and I'll go from there.

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

ebwop again

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

congrats on the promotion btw

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

tps and sunfan are town
wolves either played tps' game or hit a SK vest

i'm wondering if freezin ramping up softing d2 has anything to do with wolves realizing an SK was in the game, but there's only a few things that would remove a kill in this setup: either they nk tps n1 fsr or they hit someone who doesn't die. in the latter case the flipped wolves could have been pushing the SK, who from yesterday would appear to be blind or fg

RRHTTTT

gunsmith
hider
7x vt
sk
2x mafia goon
1x mafia joat

alive: sk, maf joat, hider, 4x vt

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

hrep drep?

i'm lynching any vig claim

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

i don't

it's possible but feels wrong, because it doesn't square with xiz feeling like the day's shrug lynch, and even though prec was casing you earlier, the bigger move onto you didn't come til later

who?

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

sometimes you're gonna derp

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

yop

i was like "what about inv immune" but that's not a thing in this setup

also it seems wolves used their roleblock already bc they could have just roleblock+killed tps if they really wanted him gone

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

What does ebwop mean?

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

edit by way of (new) post

i.e. make a new post to fix something you messed up typing. he added the word "if" in there to say "sk (if we have one)"

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

Thanks! May have celebrated a bit too hard last night, waking up to a pounding headache right now and I'm now at a 10 hour fantasy football draft lol

I can't see in any harm in disclosing my action list at this point , so here it goes:

N1: No hid (sorry, I literally was AFK for the entirety of this night phase)
N2: Celirra
N3: Sunfan

Reads in my eyes:

Town-Sunfan/Cel

Scum leans: 1 of Blind/Prec

Possible SK: Funny/indHeart

I see Blind already went on a huge wall of post against Prec already, which seems to be his mission all game. I'm cool with deciding what angle ya'll want to go for with today's vote and then settling in on a target, I'm still a little fuzzy on the math here for how many chances we have left and what our lynch priority is. Sunfan/Cel, can either of you provide some insight into how you'd like to see this play out?

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

so cel's clear, and every nonclear VT just needs to be able to clear another one and have a lynch order

fine task

it's not quite "ok i just lynch the three other VTs" bc nks

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

Ok celery, YOU AND SUN FAN ARE CLEAR, can we stop tin foiling and get to killing the actual wolf and sk?

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

honestly prec should get cred for that before i do, bc he was the one working through the implications initially and we just talked about it together, and he arrived at "if tps is I/R, claim"

that feels like it comes from a place of trying to eval tps' claim as real, whereas the main reason to want to know that as scum is like, "ok, how hard is the game now"

i guess if tps was fake, him having to claim results could easily sort that out if he claims a wrong result and then the sk doesn't have to coin flip between him and freezin

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

Looks good for Tps not making a bananas play

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

That's the day after he hid behind cel, he has him as his top town

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

This may be my hangover talking but I'm really sad and upset and disappointed that I wanted so much time on the sunfan tinfoily life

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

Thats what you get for not listening forever ago.

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

I dont remember who it was but I remember someone saying that if theres an sk it's funny, but I'm down to sheep that

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

I dont think funny is ever wolf in this world with how she afk'd a vote on xiz... but sk zzzz

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

I dont think I see a world where blind is wolf

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

#teamsunfan

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

sunfan said it

ain't true 'cause im VANILLA TOWN

i was asleep. i dunno if y'all noticed yet

but i have the most fucked up sleep schedule ever

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

hey celery remember when you slept on sunfan being a super duper Vanilla Town???

haha

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

hey funny whats it like being sk

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

THAT IS GOLD

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

^3 billion IQ shitpost*
*rounds down to 128

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

this is tragic

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

Anyways if I had to say
I think funny is most likely sk
prec most likely wolf
ind wildcard

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

tbh I think the only way town loses is to the serial killer or if Tps is somehow fake which it really, really, really looks like isn't the case

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

youre gonna be mad at me
but my first thought actually when today's events happened was "what if sunfan and tps are w/w"

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

you're grounded, don't come back to the thread until you've realized what you've done, and have learned your lesson.

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

literally impossible because there can only be 3 wolves so

I don't know what you've been smoking to get 27 on that rice test but give me some I felt like my number was too high

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

something to keep in mind just in case Tps/Freezin talked and planned this out and decided that their best path to victory involved Freezin committing sudoku

if Tps is alive in f4/f3, a serial killer has not flipped, and there has never been more than 1 visible KP in a night (meaning that there has never been more than 1 death in a night phase), lynch him. The quickest he can win is f3 and if its at that point of the game where there's just been 1 nightkill every night forever, I think that'd be the only point where I'd consider lynching him.

before that point, I think I am going to stop thinking about whether or not he is fake (if he is the last wolf then we know there is not a serial killer so there's nothing to worry about there).

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

for now, precarious

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

hey I got 38
I blame one week for a lot of those points

also you know im pretty much anti drugs and haven't/wouldn't touch 'em

but i too am surprised you were so high

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

hey so like


should we discuss strategy for tps hiding this phase as a pseudo-seer?

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

actually theres a chance that if we do that we lose

7 right now
if tps hides behind a town and we choreograph it then thats -2
then the faction that didnt kill the town he hides behind kills another
puts us at 4
and then I think we cant win

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

The Freezin death is weird.

Here's what we know: the seven-roll is dependent on town roles; anti-town roles are merely a result of the number. Freezin lied. Tps has claimed blue; all other remaining players claimed vanilla.

Tps is either telling the truth (blue town), or is lying (scum/SK).

That means the starting state was either RRxTTTT (assuming truthful Tps) or RRTTTTT (assuming anti-town Tps).

Truthful Tps gives us TTTT, which is 2 goons, a JOAT, and an SK.
Fake Tps gives us TTTTT, which is 2 goons and a bus driver.

Fake Tps is problematic, but possible. It requires the scum team to sacrifice Freezin in order to more firmly cement Tps as town. Both Freezin and Tps were likely town yesterday, due to their claims; however, their blue claims would make them popular night targets. Each day both survived would be suspicious, and Xiz's death left them with no path to LYLO or MILO today. Therefore, both would survive multiple nights post-massclaim, which could look suspicious. Tps also waited to "read" yesterday before generically claiming blue, which may have involved the wolves determining the safest course of action going forward.

On the other hand, this would be an extremely reckless gambit (if we assume a scum self-kill). If Tps is a wolf, then there is no SK, and he is the only remaining anti-town player in the game, now facing a brutal 6:1 slog toward victory. Tps would be forced to survive on his own without any accompanying votes, leaving him vulnerable to any shift in the thread overmeta (and with a case such as the previous paragraph available). Given that Tps' role is unrevealed, and because there's not really a counterclaim possibility in this format, the potential hider/doctor-jailkeeper dichotomy would make both blues surviving at least plausible the first night.

If Tps is telling the truth, things are more complicated. TTTT necessitates the inclusion of a serial killer, which is...odd. (It's worth noting that Tps can't be the SK, since TTTT requires an additional blue, and everyone else has claimed vanilla). If there is a SK, then we have to assume they either accidentally or deliberately didn't shoot the first two nights, or that Tps has a defensive power (hider/jailkeeper/doctor--can't be a commuter because that requires the existence of both a hider and a 1-shot commuter) which stymied a kill by either wolves or SK. Bluntly, there has been only one kill each night, which would mean even assuming the SK used up a vest, SK or wolves would have had to have misfired due to Tps' defensive powers twice.

We're thus left with the scenario that the SK was waiting in the shadows (I don't buy inactivity, since everyone has been relatively active other than Tps, and while he can be a wolf, he can't be a serial killer), or that three separate kill actions failed in a game that might not even have a single protective power.

The only other possible explanation for the night result is that Tps is a Vigilante and shot Freezin--and that simply doesn't work. RRKTTTT gives us a SK (and the extra shot per night that assumes), while also suggesting that town-Tps shot Freezin despite Freezin's claim apparently syncing with his knowledge of the game state (the now proven false RRKKTTT, which seemed likely yesterday given the assumed lack of an SK).

*************************
*************************

Therefore, we're left with two possibilities.

1. Tps is a wolf. All other remaining players are town.

2. Tps is a town power role. Of the other remaining players, one is a wolf and one is a serial killer.

Assuming (2.), all living player interactions are out the window as far as worldbuilding goes. There are no anti-town allies remaining; the wolf and SK would oppose each other, and wouldn't know who the other is anyway. However, past interactions with and from both Xiz and Freezin are still relevant.

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

town sleeps and hopes the anti-towns kill one another in the night, or that the wolf kills the sk but hits a vest, and the sk kills the wolf
OR
the wolf roleblocks the sk and the sk tries to kill the wolf

that's town's only out in that f4 scenario if the 2 towns are vanilla

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

beyond telling him that he shouldn't hide behind me or you again, which he probably already knows, I don't see too much point in that because if he is real town can potentially get put in a really bad situation like you outlined

its not too likely but I think I do agree with you here that being conservative seems to be for the best

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

the game is like
so boring if Tps is a wolf

he plays to his out of repping hider until f4/f3, probably f3, and then gets lynched if there's been no more than 1 nightkill every night and no sk has flipped, which is what would happen if he is the last wolf, and then loses

I really hope that's not the case is all

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

Our mechanical best course of action for now is to assume that Tps is telling the truth.

I'm more skeptical of him than most, given that all scenarios with an SK require unlikely results, but the alternative is far more dangerous--a lone Tps shouldn't be a great threat.

Because if he's lying, then he is by definition the only remaining anti-town player, and can be lynched at any point, and I feel like that will become more obvious as the player pool whittles. Because for him to be telling the truth, there must be both a wolf and a serial killer present in the game that isn't him, and neither appearing as the game narrows would make Tps look bad in the end game.

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

agreed
that's y I wanna lynch u tho

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

isnt this technically potentially mylo

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

if you argue for sleeping I swear to god I'm never speaking to you again

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

uhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

:D ?

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

sleeping puts us to 5 potentially with 2 to 0 antitown
and less people as fluff eh
then from there it's lylo potentially
or we just like
win

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

pls dont hate me sunfan remember the good times we had

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

remember when you said i was like your brother but not in a good way

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

remember when you said funnygurl wasn't actually funny

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

i wish danceguy played twg, he'd buy into my conspiracies i bet
tell him i said that please

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

we need a game with danceguy, xiz, yoshl and me

we could just enable each other all game
maybe throw in roundbox so we can annoy him

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

anyways I'm advocating no lynch unless someone has irrefutable proof

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

tps if we no lynch i highly recommend not hiding

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

I look forward to sunfan calling me dawg and mentioning he is unhappy with me

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

[quote=Celirra;4646103]isnt this technically potentially mylo[/QUOTE

It's either 6 town:1 wolf or 5 town:1 wolf:1 SK. If 5:1:1, then a mislynch takes us to 4:1:1, and successful NKs by both wolf and SK on town players leaves us at 2:1:1 tomorrow.

So...sort of. We would lack absolute voting power, but only if the wolf and SK voted in a bloc, which wouldn't be a certainty (they couldn't know each other's identities, and their win conditions are mutually exclusive). We would lose control of our own destiny, but we wouldn't be mechanically eliminated.

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

we lose a lynch by doing that, cel
lynches are good and nice

the chance of the following things all happening at the same time is very small:
there is a serial killer and a wolf, despite the past 3 nights having only one nightkill
the serial killer and the wolf both target different towns AND
Tps hides behind one of those two towns or one of the scum
and the serial killer isn't roleblocked by the JOAT wolf
and the wolf doesn't shoot the serial killer who has a vest

its not worth playing to that scenario celery

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

if we sleep and 2 people die, then we've lost a potential chance at killing a wolf ourselves, and you know what they say about wanting something done

the SK wants town to be in that stupid f4 situation, so they actually want to shoot a town tonight to put town in that awkward spot because the SK is favored in that scenario

the wolf doesn't but w/e

sleeping is what the scum wants here

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

chance wolf has their roleblock at this point of the game:
very, very low

chance sk has their vest at this point of the game:
pretty high in comparison, I value the extra night a hell of a lot more than I value any of those abilities, the Ninja is basically worthless, and the Strongman doesn't do too much most of the time since you want to kill wolfy people mostly as the SK and not t

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

not too many medics want to save those*
yeah some jailkeepers do but then they usually die anyways by lynch the next day

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

so no, we're not sleeping
we are lynching every day for the rest of the game unless we are in final 4, in which case we are sleeping

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

my theory for why the nights have been so weird:

n1 syhto doublestacked
n2 wolves roleblocked the sk, killed DBP
n3 wolves try to kill Tps and miss, Sk kills Freezin because they know there is exactly one fakeclaim between Freezin/Tps

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

n1 and n2 is interchangeable I guess

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

Celery I do remember saying that to you wrt my brother but I may have spaghetti'd what I meant to say there

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

i think there's upside to tps hiding behind someone in the POE if we lynch correctly today, but only if we lynch correctly

lol doing math though i'm a lil buzzed

i think otherwise he should no-hide

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

i do not think SK and maf are incentivized to shoot each other tonight