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-   -   TWG 194 - Game Thread (http://www.flashflashrevolution.com/vbz/showthread.php?t=151853)

Duskfall 04-30-2020 05:33 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
yeah most like scum rn for me are haku and bolth after dbp

Hakulyte 04-30-2020 05:37 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
Great, now I have to entertain DBP/ShadoWolfe/leetic.

Hakulyte 04-30-2020 05:39 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
Prob not revisiting Duskfall until game is over because the guy seems to actually be upset by my play.

That helps clear FFA a bit too.

flashflash account 04-30-2020 05:41 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
at this point I'm convinced it's just this running gag where leetic keeps voting me because they think I'll eventually be a wolf

Hakulyte 04-30-2020 05:45 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by flashflash account (Post 4728353)
at this point I'm convinced it's just this running gag where leetic keeps voting me because they think I'll eventually be a wolf

Would you be surprised if MML Godfather or you're pretty sure that's town almost every time ?

Duskfall 04-30-2020 05:46 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hakulyte (Post 4728352)
Prob not revisiting Duskfall until game is over because the guy seems to actually be upset by my play.

That helps clear FFA a bit too.

i am not upset but i will take the townread ty

flashflash account 04-30-2020 05:47 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hakulyte (Post 4728354)
Would you be surprised if MML Godfather or you're pretty sure that's town almost every time ?

it would be a more favorable conclusion for MML than them actually being this bullheaded

Hakulyte 04-30-2020 05:50 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by flashflash account (Post 4728356)
it would be a more favorable conclusion for MML than them actually being this bullheaded

I've seen MML both wolf and town read me at same time earlier in the game as if he didn't want to commit there because it sounded like a minefield.

Considering the Xiz case and how his game unfolded, I wonder if he's just tunnelling stuff on purpose.

leetic 04-30-2020 05:51 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by flashflash account (Post 4728353)
at this point I'm convinced it's just this running gag where leetic keeps voting me because they think I'll eventually be a wolf

I'm willing to take the 0.06% chance I'm wrong

Hakulyte 04-30-2020 05:51 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by leetic (Post 4728359)
I'm willing to take the 0.06% chance I'm wrong

I have trouble to take your 0.06% chance thing seriously.

flashflash account 04-30-2020 05:52 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by leetic (Post 4728359)
I'm willing to take the 0.06% chance I'm wrong

want to put something more tangible on these odds?

Hakulyte 04-30-2020 05:53 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
0.06% chance is a reasonable amount when it comes to the odds of the setup.

It's not like a setup has 99.4% chance to appear and it's between those two.

It's some big number splitted between a ton of scenarios.

Hakulyte 04-30-2020 05:58 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
The activity makes me sad for a game that's 2 hours from EoD.

Duskfall 04-30-2020 06:00 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
leetic didnt do maths right btw given the info we know, assuming leetics claim is also correct the odds of there being exactly 3 Cs in the setup is actually

~5.25 percent

Hakulyte 04-30-2020 06:01 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
The real joke is why you guys keep asking me to do setup things.

If anything, I'm usually the one that somehow get things wrong.

Duskfall 04-30-2020 06:02 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
wait i also did my maths wrong i think its like 1 percent

leetic 04-30-2020 06:03 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hakulyte (Post 4728362)
0.06% chance is a reasonable amount when it comes to the odds of the setup.

It's not like a setup has 99.4% chance to appear and it's between those two.

It's some big number splitted between a ton of scenarios.

First of all, you're doing the math wrong, it's a 99.94% chance Mikey is lying.

Moreover, the only evidence Mikey has really brought up against DBP is his cop check. Mathematically speaking, it is much easier to believe DBP.

leetic 04-30-2020 06:05 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Duskfall (Post 4728367)
wait i also did my maths wrong i think its like 1 percent

How are you doing it? For me it's (1/10)^3*(9/10)*4=about 0.00065

ShadoWolfe 04-30-2020 06:05 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Duskfall (Post 4728365)
leetic didnt do maths right btw given the info we know, assuming leetics claim is also correct the odds of there being exactly 3 Cs in the setup is actually



~5.25 percent

You were quicker than me, but you're wrong too.

The binomial probability of rolling 3 Cs out of 7, where the chance of each C is 1/10, is roughly 2.296%

I cheated tho I used a calculator
https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx

Duskfall 04-30-2020 06:06 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by leetic (Post 4728369)
How are you doing it? For me it's (1/10)^3*(9/10)*4=about 0.00065

you arent accounting for the fact that

- we already know two of the letters so we are rolling for 2 things in a subset of 5

-we arent selecting in a set number, you are calculating the odds of a setup being rolled in an exact order, not being rolled at all


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