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-   -   TWG 194 - Game Thread (http://www.flashflashrevolution.com/vbz/showthread.php?t=151853)

leetic 05-2-2020 07:52 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by DaBackpack (Post 4729060)
for this world you would have to believe that either Haku is my wolf partner and he got blocked or that I deliberately sent-in a no-kill and made an unnecessary gamble that relied on MML not targeting any of my wolf partners

and you would have to believe that I picked a single-letter fakeclaim instead of the safer double-letter fakeclaim and that I would be willing to sacrifice myself that phase even if I knew mechanically that Mikey was lying and didn't have to fakeclaim at all?

and also that I fake softed roleblocker as early as D0 and nothing else, which is the same as committing to a potential 1-letter role which was way more dangerous than a 2-letter role (again)

First of all, "fake softed roleblocker" doesn't sound good and I can't find the post in question. Secondly, why would you send a no-kill? Simple, to make your claim more believable when Mikey's flip would put it into question and to help push forward a potential mislynch. It's MyLo, it's not like scum has anything to lose.

Bolth mannn 05-2-2020 07:53 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
I feel like I either have to believe both of MML and DBP or believe none of them...

It just seems like too many things would have to fall into place for yesterday to work if only one of those two are scum

MixMasterLar 05-2-2020 07:55 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by DaBackpack (Post 4729065)
25% outcome vs. 1% outcome is effectively the same, statistically, because of how the game is rolled

I dont know about that....

MixMasterLar 05-2-2020 07:57 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by leetic (Post 4729066)
First of all, "fake softed roleblocker" doesn't sound good.

Ok to be fair, he's saying for you to believe the quoted post you had to believe he faked it as early as d0

Bro they must be big on slips where your from this is like the 5th time you tried pointing out wording that had no business being pointed out.

MixMasterLar 05-2-2020 07:58 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Bolth mannn (Post 4729067)
I feel like I either have to believe both of MML and DBP or believe none of them...

It just seems like too many things would have to fall into place for yesterday to work if only one of those two are scum

If both of us are scum then explain my claim. And no, before you repeat what FFA tried to say, my second claim doesnt back up DBP at all.

ShadoWolfe 05-2-2020 08:01 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Bolth mannn (Post 4729067)
I feel like I either have to believe both of MML and DBP or believe none of them...

It just seems like too many things would have to fall into place for yesterday to work if only one of those two are scum

They're not partners. An MML/DBP world doesn't exist here for a lot of reasons

Hakulyte 05-2-2020 08:01 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
If we can prove that DBP is fake; can MML still be real ?

DaBackpack 05-2-2020 08:02 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by leetic (Post 4729066)
First of all, "fake softed roleblocker" doesn't sound good and I can't find the post in question. Secondly, why would you send a no-kill? Simple, to make your claim more believable when Mikey's flip would put it into question and to help push forward a potential mislynch. It's MyLo, it's not like scum has anything to lose.

Yeah, I'm saying that you would have to believe that my roleblocker softs are fake for this to make sense in that world

sending in a no-kill is suicidal because if MML actually targets a wolf partner then I am needlessly endangering my own chances of success. this would be catastrophic for one major reason

You're looking at TT vs. TTTT. the only difference is the 1-shot role cop vs the regular role cop. if I'm lying then we're in TTTT. if MML happened to target the 1-shot role cop and that person got lynched, they would flip 1-shot role cop which mathematically proves we are in TTTT instead of the TT I was trying to dupe you into. That mechanically outs me too. By no-killing I'm potentially sacrificing 2 wolves for a single gambit that isn't even needed.

so no, fakeclaiming roleblocker and then knowingly no-killing is just not a thing that ever happens in this situation

leetic 05-2-2020 08:02 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hakulyte (Post 4729075)
If we can prove that DBP is fake; can MML still be real ?

Most likely, otherwise it throws the setup into question.

ShadoWolfe 05-2-2020 08:04 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hakulyte (Post 4729075)
If we can prove that DBP is fake; can MML still be real ?

From your perspective, meaning if Haku=Town is a requirement

Then DBP being scum would necessitate an intentional scum nokill last night*



*pending one thing which remains to be seen

leetic 05-2-2020 08:04 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by DaBackpack (Post 4729077)
Yeah, I'm saying that you would have to believe that my roleblocker softs are fake for this to make sense in that world

sending in a no-kill is suicidal because if MML actually targets a wolf partner then I am needlessly endangering my own chances of success. this would be catastrophic for one major reason

You're looking at TT vs. TTTT. the only difference is the 1-shot role cop vs the regular role cop. if I'm lying then we're in TTTT. if MML happened to target the 1-shot role cop and that person got lynched, they would flip 1-shot role cop which mathematically proves we are in TTTT instead of the TT I was trying to dupe you into. That mechanically outs me too. By no-killing I'm potentially sacrificing 2 wolves for a single gambit that isn't even needed.

so no, fakeclaiming roleblocker and then knowingly no-killing is just not a thing that ever happens in this situation

You still haven't pointed out your supposed softs

MixMasterLar 05-2-2020 08:04 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
DBP i need you to link me that D0 soft please

DaBackpack 05-2-2020 08:04 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar (Post 4729069)
I dont know about that....

Yes it is, because of how conditional probabilities

the difference between 0.1% and 2.5% is marginal in the grand scheme of rands in this setup

DaBackpack 05-2-2020 08:05 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by leetic (Post 4729080)
You still haven't pointed out your supposed softs

because I was busy responding to your post calm your tits

leetic 05-2-2020 08:10 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
4T is 27% vs. 16% for 2T. Not too significant a difference on its own, but compounded by the three roleblockers in the latter scenario. Four Ts with three distinct PRs is a normal setup.

leetic 05-2-2020 08:10 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by DaBackpack (Post 4729083)
because I was busy responding to your post calm your tits

It didn't take me too long to bring up my softclaim

ShadoWolfe 05-2-2020 08:15 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by DaBackpack (Post 4729082)
Yes it is, because of how conditional probabilities

the difference between 0.1% and 2.5% is marginal in the grand scheme of rands in this setup

idk, there's a pretty big difference in total rand likelihood.

Odds of exactly VCBTTTT = (0.2734375*0.3720087*0.3720087*0.3720087)*100 = ~1.41%

Odds of Exactly VCBBBTT = (0.1640625*0.0229635*0.3720087*0.3720087)*100 = ~0.05%

The difference is by a factor of 27. That's not marginal

MixMasterLar 05-2-2020 08:18 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
Math's my weakest subject

I could use a calculater and google formulas and probably figure it out, but I won't.

DBP's being scum doesn't contradict the known set up and thats all I need to know in regards to rather or not he needs to be considered. Imma be pissed if he's wolf tho because for most of the game he was strongest townread

Bolth mannn 05-2-2020 08:19 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
Alright well my head was originally at the fact that dbp would have had to make an obscene risk as scum to claim before knowing there was another roleblocker, but I just realised scum team have a cop so lol

MixMasterLar 05-2-2020 08:19 PM

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 
Like my gut doesn't believe he's a fake.


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