Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

First of all, "fake softed roleblocker" doesn't sound good and I can't find the post in question. Secondly, why would you send a no-kill? Simple, to make your claim more believable when Mikey's flip would put it into question and to help push forward a potential mislynch. It's MyLo, it's not like scum has anything to lose.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

I feel like I either have to believe both of MML and DBP or believe none of them...

It just seems like too many things would have to fall into place for yesterday to work if only one of those two are scum

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

I dont know about that....

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

Ok to be fair, he's saying for you to believe the quoted post you had to believe he faked it as early as d0

Bro they must be big on slips where your from this is like the 5th time you tried pointing out wording that had no business being pointed out.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

If both of us are scum then explain my claim. And no, before you repeat what FFA tried to say, my second claim doesnt back up DBP at all.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

They're not partners. An MML/DBP world doesn't exist here for a lot of reasons

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

If we can prove that DBP is fake; can MML still be real ?

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

Yeah, I'm saying that you would have to believe that my roleblocker softs are fake for this to make sense in that world

sending in a no-kill is suicidal because if MML actually targets a wolf partner then I am needlessly endangering my own chances of success. this would be catastrophic for one major reason

You're looking at TT vs. TTTT. the only difference is the 1-shot role cop vs the regular role cop. if I'm lying then we're in TTTT. if MML happened to target the 1-shot role cop and that person got lynched, they would flip 1-shot role cop which mathematically proves we are in TTTT instead of the TT I was trying to dupe you into. That mechanically outs me too. By no-killing I'm potentially sacrificing 2 wolves for a single gambit that isn't even needed.

so no, fakeclaiming roleblocker and then knowingly no-killing is just not a thing that ever happens in this situation

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

Most likely, otherwise it throws the setup into question.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

From your perspective, meaning if Haku=Town is a requirement

Then DBP being scum would necessitate an intentional scum nokill last night*



*pending one thing which remains to be seen

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

You still haven't pointed out your supposed softs

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

DBP i need you to link me that D0 soft please

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

Yes it is, because of how conditional probabilities

the difference between 0.1% and 2.5% is marginal in the grand scheme of rands in this setup

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

because I was busy responding to your post calm your tits

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

4T is 27% vs. 16% for 2T. Not too significant a difference on its own, but compounded by the three roleblockers in the latter scenario. Four Ts with three distinct PRs is a normal setup.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

It didn't take me too long to bring up my softclaim

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

idk, there's a pretty big difference in total rand likelihood.

Odds of exactly VCBTTTT = (0.2734375*0.3720087*0.3720087*0.3720087)*100 = ~1.41%

Odds of Exactly VCBBBTT = (0.1640625*0.0229635*0.3720087*0.3720087)*100 = ~0.05%

The difference is by a factor of 27. That's not marginal

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

Math's my weakest subject

I could use a calculater and google formulas and probably figure it out, but I won't.

DBP's being scum doesn't contradict the known set up and thats all I need to know in regards to rather or not he needs to be considered. Imma be pissed if he's wolf tho because for most of the game he was strongest townread

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

Alright well my head was originally at the fact that dbp would have had to make an obscene risk as scum to claim before knowing there was another roleblocker, but I just realised scum team have a cop so lol

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

Like my gut doesn't believe he's a fake.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

I don’t think we should be looking at statistical probabilities as a method to solve the setup, cause realistically both of those setups are possible

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

Depending on whatever the soft is, I’m gonna choose to believe both MML and dbp or I’m gonna probably vote dbp

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

Sure, but when someone says the difference is marginal and "effectively the same", then that has to be corrected if the one possibility is 27 times more likely than the other.. right?

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

It wouldn't have really been that big a risk for DBP to claim. DBP was near insta twice and the thread climate was very much against him. I've seen scum make last ditch claims like that all the time, even though they usually aren't successful.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

I knew this was gonna be too obtuse but it was too fun to stick in there, and plus it's a soft that nobody else can use to PR hunt me (or so I thought) and only would make sense unless I explained what's so special about SNNs

when any neuron in the network fires, it inhibits the activation of any "nearby" neurons. this is commonly believed to be an energy-efficiency measure in the human brain so that it doesn't need 100 neurons to fire when 1 neuron has the same information. the metaphor here is that when I "activate" I "block" another neuron from firing. it's something that nobody else would ever get on their own, but was also something that was DISTINCTLY roleblocker and not angel, cop, etc. (except I guess for mason, which Xiz misinterpreted it as)

following is a literal soft, replying to a question about town roleblockers

one of the reasons I blew up against Xiz was that he was PR hunting me and Duskfall. Xiz brought up the spiking neural networks thing as why he thought I was a mason so I made it a point to dismiss it entirely for self-protection. After Xiz says that he read my opening posts as softs:

when FFA fakeclaiming cop, I got excited made some references to him getting spiked if he didn't rescind his claim

before he hardclaimed, I left these references to see if he would back off of me without me needing to out myself:

(b-buddy being deliberate)

These pages are the mechanisms by which the blocker neuron stifles the activity of other neurons in the network.

Five hours later I came back and just full-claimed because FFA was totally willing to throw the game for his own ego and stubbornness

that's how I created a context for softing roleblocker that should have been 100% safe against PR hunting

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

Yea I suppose, I mean math isn’t really my thing either, but I wouldn’t decide a vote based on something being more mathematically likely in any case, unless it was like obscenely ridiculous odds

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

Looks like we're approaching the leap of faith lottery game where DBP/MML were both town and all the outsiders have the entire wolf team.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

Bolth hard claim please.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

No because you're not considering the actual statistical distribution of setups in the entire game. What's the standard deviation? It might be the case that TTTT is the "mean" set of T rolls, but even though the literal probability of TT is off by 25x, that 25x difference doesn't mean anything until you do a more comprehensive analysis and contextualize it against the other T-rolls. For example, TT is more likely than TTTTTTT and TTTTTT. So yeah, TTTT is more likely than TT but not in a meaningful way-- it's still like the 3rd-4th most likely outcome if you roll the entire setup

you can prove this with Monte-Carlo simulation if you want to

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

DBP's soft seems like a bit of a stretch. It's not something that has an obvious connection with the role like my soft

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

I mean, you're not wrong with this but it's irrelevant because I'm not focusing on just the TT vs TTTT. The more important change is BBB vs just B.

That's why I calculated probability for the two likeliest setups given the existing claims, in full, instead of just comparing TTTT/TT or BBB/B.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

Yeah, all other non-T roles have the same 10% chance. AAB is the same as VCB is the same as BBB. The number of T slots is the only significant factor--- the other slots are uniformly 10% for each one

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

....ok, at that point either we believe DBP had planned the soft for a really long time or he's legit.

Meaning town literally just imploded on itself this game and wolves didnt even have to work for it.

What utter fools we are. I'm starting to get fucking livid about it again. I fucking wish i had just paid enough attention to had call out FFA's bullshit claim myself and keep DBP hidden instead of letting stupid town out two fu king PRs

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

@DBP if you're town, then yesterday must've been somewhat illuminating for you, no?

being in the center of that clusterfuck, what were you thinking about the people commenting on your slot and did anyone stick out to you as having a particular agenda?

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

I was having fun ok

as a soft it's an encryption mechanism that nobody else can independently solve to nightkill me and has exactly one proper semantic meaning as a soft: roleblocker

Spiking NNs in particular are the only ones with the blocking mechanism, that's literally the thing that makes them unique

it should be pretty fucking obvious by now that I'm a roleblocker and I'm pretty annoyed that I have to spend my time defending it against stupid standards and tinfoil possibilities

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

I did earlier

VT

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

....

I'll believe DBP
I'll believe Leetic

----
I think Shadow is getting a free pass here because the thread is nuts, but I had Uli has town and he's being after

----
I've no strong reason to townread Dusk
I've no strong reason to townread Haku
I've no reason whatever to townread Bolth
I've no reason whatever to even keep Jessie alive

If not for the complete clusterhell that are these claims, i probably would have voted Jessie last phase

Dusk and Haku had attempted blocks. One most certainly was blocked. From my perspective in reads it comes down to Bolth and Jessie likely scum, so who doea it nake sense for them to be partner with the most outta Dusk and Haku

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

Haku did you link me your old reads list or did you never make any?

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

After?

Trying to say around here

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

What’s the chances they are both scum?

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

I never made any.

Shad VT
DBP blocker
Haku VT
Shad VT
Bolth VT
Leet 1 shot cop
Lar blocker
Duskfall pending
Jessie pending

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

I like how you're so concerned about me you list me twice lol

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

it's a bit tricky because the main argument was T/T so the wolves probably didn't even need to do anything last phase. voting behavior and side commentary is likely more reliable

as Haku brought up there was a clear wagon of people that were willing to get me insta-d before I even showed up. an expeditious mislynch like that helps wolves because they would know FFA is lying, so they lynch me, and then mislynch FFA today to guarantee win the game. if they give me an opportunity to show up, there was a probability that FFA and I would "make things messy" and prevent the easy mislynch

for wagonomics reasons (e.g. Duskfall's vote was on me, presumably so not all the wolves were on the main wagon) as well as the above one, I targeted Duskall--- especially since he wasn't in any immediate heat and would be "safe" for the wolves to pick to send in the nightkill

MML is legit, my scumlean on jessie is less sure now, bolth is more scummy now

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

It's hella involved tho.

I mean I know I'm biased with me having him top town and all but yooo, that's alot for you to assume he's making a fake up. The worst is he planned that fake for a long time just in case. Possible, but i dont think likely

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

Why is Duskfall pending? You said this phase that you town read them

Town read them enough that you even said that wopves had to send a no kill if the alternative was he was a blocked wolf

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

Haku i put up with you being all over the place d0

I won't put up with inconsistances from you this phase

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

That's my claim list. It's not my read list.

I sheeped Xiz on the Duskfall/Bolth reads.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

do you think a no-kill happened?

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

That’s his massclaim list, he still hasn’t come up with a reads list


Atm my head is at dusk/haku/jessie

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

I think you're real and that Duskfall -> (Jessie\Bolth?) is a decent lynch order.

Seems like game is worst case scenario where wolves just sit back and watched the world burn.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

Post reads Haku

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

Bolth, can you do like you did in your first game and make reads that were so good that I wolf read you over it ?

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

This 180 from start of phrase comes courtesy of.....what progression?

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

I don't think it's necessarily a good idea to fully accept DBP's claim. Your plan of lynching from the blocked targets is probably good for now, but bear in mind that DBP as scum roleblocker probably knows exactly what he's gonna claim later, and therefore the soft still makes sense.

That marrs the plan of a blocked target lynch because of how a no kill increases the believability of a two blocker world.

In any case, I'm okay going with it pending the blocked targets' posts today because F8 , but I'd advise against locking anything in for future phases.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

Mechanics and bs town plays of this game has constantly shifted my reads too much for my reads lists to be any more valuable than my current style of just posting whenever I have a thought or a question

Still heavily suspicious of Dusk so that’s probably where my vote will go

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

If there's no more PRs, I think that clears Leetic to have the setup makes sense.

Jessie is a big UTR ???
Duskfall probably meme'd a bit too much for a townie.
Bolth is pretty much the same as me. (we want your reads etc. etc.)
In a way, MML might be less believable than DBP at this point. (I'll assume town for his sanity)
Shado is null city unfortunately.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

It's not hard to 180 a read that is probably bad and 95% based on FFA saying it's probably town (but he improved)/Xiz town reading as well.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

Naw man we need full reads from everyone this phase and the soonerthe better.

I get shits been crazy but we need a check on where people are at <right now> to anchor town and figure things out. Saying your reads list isnt valuable is flat wrong even if they ain't strong atm

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

I'll go with Duskfall/ShadoWolfe/Jessie as my final wolf team.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

Seems it osnt hard to 180 any of your reads this entire game Haku

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

Well, that was a bad game on multiple levels.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

Yea sorry I can see how reads from everyone can only help

Give me a bit

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

.....you know what imma just reposts this and then let Haku free post for awhile

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

This is not a time to just be throwing names out as suspicious. Scum controls a large amount of the discussion right now, so if even one of the "suspicious" users is town it's likely that this will end in disaster. In order to make a wise choice on who to lynch, we must first understand how we got here. I want everyone to reread the past three days.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

Wtf was that Mikey

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

Everyone needs to posts as detailed of a readlists as possible and we need to figure out where people stand on lynch orders/lynch consensus.

Doesnt matter if you think they're shitty, we need to get an idea on where we're at

People also should state straight up rather they believe any of the claims or not. We need to start solving this fu ker and not wait for EoD

Anyone fucks about and can't at least do all that d4 of a game is probably not playing for town

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

Thanks. I'm with you so far.

How do you read duskfall? Do you think there's any significance to him being more vocal/outspoken last phase?

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

It's either you wolf or holster here p sure

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

I mean, maybe we had time to screw around in other days, but we're in -yLo now. One false move and it's over. We need to take everything into account, not just what's happening now.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

I really don't want to have to play this game after d3

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

holster makes more sense to me, but I feel like that's never going to be a popular opinion until it's too late.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

I am thinking dbp and haku wolves rn

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

Great, that's probably a T/T/T scenario.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

Dbp wolf because he didn't tinfoil mml at all he came into thread today assuming mml's claim is legit which is like tmi-y to me

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

ShadoWolfe/Jessie/(MML/Bolth)

what a meme of a game.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

One thing I've learned is that in -yLo, everyone is alive for a reason. This case might be compromised a bit if scum truly attempted a kill and failed, but there is still a reason why XelNya and FG aren't around now.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

Haku why is dbp town?

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

Wait is this Mylo?

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

I mean, Mikey could have used this as a D1 soft to help his case. Don't take everything you see as 100% true

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

You catch on quickly