Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
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you are in poe because mml is cop cleared, mikey is cop, leetic is pr and that leaves you or jesse and my gut is just telling me jesse is kind of mislynch bait but we will see going forward more depending on who wolves push, and i am going to have to readback to before i will try harder tomorrow tbh, but i just remember pushing jesse and the doubts on that slot in general doesn't feel like a wolf in a wolf dominated thread/game bolth just feels like he has been kind of preaching about like me not solving, but he doesn't seem to be trying himself earlier today he expressed frustration about me being able to get townread without posting/reading thread properly and that if he could do the same he could. I think this is kind of perspective slippy because he wants me to read thread to kind of solve to look townier, but he is saying he only reads thread to look towny. On one hand he is saying i am scum for not efforting on the other hand he is saying if he could do the same and get townread he could so it is like, he is really doing what he thinks is towny because he thinks that is towny and he is pushing the opposite without really trying to read the play. He is attempting to act towny, not solve the game. Yes i am being a hypocrite rn, no i dont care it is what it is me and bolth are different players. |
Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
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Can you help me read duskfall btw? How do you deal with / interpret all the wifom up until this phase? |
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tbh someone is fake reading me too i was considering mikey until he was cop, but someone else must be because there is no way i shouldn't be getting pushed harder by more people i have lolcatted all game
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I want: not fullclaim because it clears prs, but not vts and gets prs killed what are you talking about? |
Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
If Mikey is truly a Cop, then there would have to be three Cs. We know there is one V. Thus, since it would appear that there is no SK, there needs to be one more letter for Mikey to be the cop. Now, we know that Xiz was most likely blocked N1. This could either be a wolf or civ blocker. If it was the former, then that means that there is a wolf that was scared of potentially being shot by Xiz. If it's the latter, then there's our other letter.
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Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
the block was wolf this is not a slip i am just informing you of my incredible reads
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PRs will die anyway because wolves know who is real at that point. |
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Of course, we run into the problem that three Cs is very unlikely to begin with (about 0.06%). So I don't really believe Mikey's claim based on that.
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Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
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OK so the PoE read on me makes sense I guess. If your options are me and jessie, then I can understand how an inactive slot will always feel like mislynch bait due its nature. Haku I don't agree with as much because he's been known to support zany stances as town. What gives me pause there is that he's normally good at mechanics based solves, even to the point of figuring out literally every possibility and then spending all night tinfoiling them until he arrives at said zany stance. So coming with a "mechanics" plan to mass claim based on the reasoning he gave doesn't feel like his normal solving capabilities. But the reason I was especially happy to see this post is 'cause that bolth read is solid. I read the post where he said he wonders why he posts if all he has to do to get townread is not post and it gave me pause as well, so that read makes most sense to me here |
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Mikey just based on good ol' probability.
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awh he pocketed me too
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oh my god leetic no
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yeah most like scum rn for me are haku and bolth after dbp
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Great, now I have to entertain DBP/ShadoWolfe/leetic.
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Prob not revisiting Duskfall until game is over because the guy seems to actually be upset by my play.
That helps clear FFA a bit too. |
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at this point I'm convinced it's just this running gag where leetic keeps voting me because they think I'll eventually be a wolf
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Considering the Xiz case and how his game unfolded, I wonder if he's just tunnelling stuff on purpose. |
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0.06% chance is a reasonable amount when it comes to the odds of the setup.
It's not like a setup has 99.4% chance to appear and it's between those two. It's some big number splitted between a ton of scenarios. |
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The activity makes me sad for a game that's 2 hours from EoD.
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leetic didnt do maths right btw given the info we know, assuming leetics claim is also correct the odds of there being exactly 3 Cs in the setup is actually
~5.25 percent |
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The real joke is why you guys keep asking me to do setup things.
If anything, I'm usually the one that somehow get things wrong. |
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wait i also did my maths wrong i think its like 1 percent
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Moreover, the only evidence Mikey has really brought up against DBP is his cop check. Mathematically speaking, it is much easier to believe DBP. |
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The binomial probability of rolling 3 Cs out of 7, where the chance of each C is 1/10, is roughly 2.296% I cheated tho I used a calculator https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx |
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- we already know two of the letters so we are rolling for 2 things in a subset of 5 -we arent selecting in a set number, you are calculating the odds of a setup being rolled in an exact order, not being rolled at all |
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its around 1 percent because its 2 cs out of 5 since we already have 1 c and 1 v given |
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I think you're forgetting that we only need 2 wrong votes to have a vote rush into a mislynch.
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No wonder it's such a small chance. |
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I feel like we should lynch every PRs who claims something in every C9 games with numbers like that.
That doesn't make sense to me. |
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btw lynching based on statistics like this is obviously terrible and irrelevant to the game in real terms
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Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
Vote Count:
5/1 @ 19:00 00:59 = GOOD 00:00 = BAD ============== flashflash account [3] DaBackpack, MixMasterLar, leetic DaBackpack [2] flashflash account, Duskfall jessiebessie [1] ShadoWolfe Duskfall [1] Bolth mannn |
Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
if you look at it in a different way, given we have 1 C and 1 V already that leaves 5 letters remaining
using the knowledge we have right now, if we were to assume 5 Ts, then the odds of that is 0.5 to the power of 5, about 3 percent so about 97 percent of more power rolls exisiting, there are just so many worlds of different power rolls that the odds of every little thing occuring is small. It is not a convenient world of "oh such a small chance", it is a case of out of many possibilities and possible claims, probably hundreds, this is the one world we are in because we have to be in one so it is not that convenient a number |
Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
Stop guys stop, this is besides the point. The odds of 3 Cs out of 7 is 2.296.
Leetic, I've seen this setup with 3 doctors on here and with 3 cops before too. These things happen The fact is that there's a red check and the way to resolve it is to lynch the red check to resolve the cop claim. Either FFA is lying and he gets lynched tomorrow or he's not and you can tinfoil on them being partners all you want, though no one will ever follow you on it |
Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
The odds of mislynch in this scenario is extremely high because wolves just have to push the balance on the wrong side.
If there's not a strong argument going over one side or another, this will end poorly. |
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it is like saying "oh aliens dont exist on this planet because the odds of that are close to infinitely unlikely", because of all the planets in the universe it is extremelly unlikely any given planet does not have life. But in the grand scheme of things there is probably life on one planet.
So mikey's claim is unlikely to be the case the same way me typing this exact post was unlikely to be the case. But someone was also going to be some pr someone (or very likely to be) and in this case it just so happens it is mikey and he is a cop. |
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and it's not even lylo |
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I don't seriously think jess has anything to do with you two on that.
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Like in this case, coming up with that plan from a team that included dbp and FFA at a point where they're sitting strong and could really dictate a lynch if they worked together eliminates it in my mind. Especially when you add in the factor of a possible SK that could just kill the other one off and totally ruin the whole thing just makes it a worthless plan that nobody should waste any time on. |
Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
Pretty sure a SK would have shot something last phase after Xiz died because otherwise the SK will lose to wolves rather badly.
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One of these must be in the setup if Mikey is telling the truth: An Innocent Child, a town Roleblocker, an Angel, an SK
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1-shot vigi 1-shot cop 7 villagers 1-shot maf rolecop Godfather Vanilla wolf Serial killer (with conditional extra abilities) My point is just, don't assume there isn't one because there haven't been 2nd kills yet, even if you feel optimal play would've been different than what you've seen. |
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I've never seen an SK idling before. Only way there is an SK is if they were roleblocked, they shot same targets as scum, or they shot an angel target
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I'm saying that because OP doesn't have sample roles for a vanilla wolf, but it does for everything else.
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Phase ends in 50min, but I only see Duskfall online.
lmao |
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..or maybe I'm dumb and EoD is tomorrow.
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I got outplayed by Makilaz with April 31st in her votecount. rip me.
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Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
DaBackpack
Won't be here for EOD because physics exam. You better not make me look like a fool. |
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You won't be here in 24 hours ?
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this will be fixed in future vote count posts, sorry |
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went back and edited out my idiocy
eod is in 24.5 hours, i apologize profusely for the confusion |
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But yeah there are no vanilla wolves possible |
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