Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

DBP combing through the game feels genuine to me and not like... How do I put this...

I can't put it into words

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

It just feels legit, is the best that I can come up with to phrase how I feel

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

Is there anyone in this thread that's town reading:

A) Plop
B) FG
C) T-Force

If yes, why ?
If no, where are they for you ?

I'm on a tunnel with them. I'm relatively comfortable giving a pass to everyone else.

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

I'm sorry what???

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

If you want to be cool, you can investigate Yoshl/Sunfan too.

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

ok nvm I guess xiz was killed for blue equity after all

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

There's an old wives tale of old people being able to predict the weather based on whether their joints hurt or not

https://wexnermedical.osu.edu/blog/c...dry%20weather.

for your perusal in your spare time

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

I'm starting to get a little lost here

A) Are we of the opinion that Xiz was the night kill, and that Ulli was our possible secondary kill?
B) We seem to be back at T-Force/Funny again

Is there anything else I seem to be missing so far?

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

Looks like I need to move back Yoshl in null. fml.

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

I'm dumb, I should have asked him why he also voted T-Force.

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

I might town read T-Force, wolf read Yoshl and wolf read FG in conjunction with Plop.

Time will tell if im bad.

Plop I beg you to do more solving.
Same to you T-Force.
FG is like a walking wild card with ?? opinions. I just don't like it.
Yoshl is the player everyone keeps forgetting.

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

A) Yes.
B) A familiar place. It's like coming home to a fire in the berth and a warm hug waiting except the fire just entered the living room and oh god everything is burning, and the hug has a knife ready to slip into my back.

Yep. Familiar.

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

I think the kills are the opposite then, just saying

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

Ulli was killed to cause confusion amongst us, and Xiz was more than likely killed out of paranoia for chaos play history

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

not even focusing on the sheeping comment here---

this read is basically a "free action", in that anybody can say something to this effect without risk of overextending or committing in a risky direction

"his posts are genuine" as the basis of a full read, esp when that read is well-established by others, reads like a wolf calculation

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

BLAH IT COULD BE THE OTHER WAY AROUND

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

raeko is town

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

if you're self-aware of this behavior why are you letting yourself use this as an excuse for why your vote is in a useless place?

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

Big brain move is to not answer this to protect whoever was vigi.

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

I'm gonna ISO T-Force, and FG respectively, specifically their EODs

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

Yeah, I figured that out. That's why I stopped where I did

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

again, if you're aware that this is a thing that we have problems with, why does it feel like you're using that as a shield to protect yourself from scrutiny, when instead you should actually take the time to actually change and become useful?

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

yeah no, even t-force i think got the gist of why i voted him last phase. i didn't really feel like ffa or ulle were good wagons, and tforce's recent posts struck me as really bad at the time, as i said in thread, right at that time. it's not as if I just voted him without at least letting people know my path there.

that coupled with haku being the one to vote on t-force pretty much because i voted him last phase, and is now trying to sus me because of that is hillarious

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

Invited what?

Why is Plop shady?

What does the Ulli flip resolve for you? Aside from now knowing we had two town wagons?

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

If this is how you feel, then now's the time t-force

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

I feel like this is weird... But don't know why...

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

I wasn't sure for your T-Force vote because I've read this in your EoD.

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

I think this is towny

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

ironically ffa has trouble reading me in games. he //always// wolf reads me for SOME reason. i'm pretty good at reading him though. well, i'm pretty good at clearing him when he's town. that's why i wanted to keep him alive over ulle.

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

Her belief that the T-Force wagon is a good one.... Hmmm....

Does Wolf FG meme this hard?

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

I think I'm going too deep into the tunnel here

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

oh i meant unvoted

plop is always shady to me, but what was really shady here was his insistence on an ffa lynch over the alternatives. i feel like he should've known that wasn't be the best move here

the ulli flip gives me more confidence in going after the people who decided to shade both of them early on

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

So, you wanted to keep alive the guy that couldn't read you well ?

I'm confused.

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

Describe a wolf Plop to me please, I've never seen it

Also where do you stand in terms of reads

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

i don't think it matters if he struggles to read me, yeah? especially if i'm town. like, why do i care if another townie thinks i'm a wolf? i feel like worrying about that kinda stuff is wolfy

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

Wolf Plop is like a nice guy...

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

wait really? i feel like he's rolled wolf quite a bit in the recent games i've played with him. the biggest thing i've observed from him is he's able to see through some of the bs misreads that people put out, which i guess shows some tmi

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

oh i'm gonna have to do some thonking to get reads out

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

If you're town ?

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

idk man i really think you're a wolf here

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

I need players to

A) evaluate you
B) you to evaluate players

I just don't care about the rest.

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

I've been attention to YoshL this game but I haven't really commented on him yet. His development on Haku, both within D0 and between D0-D1 is uniquely towny, because it there is very little wolf equity in making early reads and rocking the boat within the same phase by trending that read in the opposite direction.

That's not great wording, but the fact that YoshL initially had Haku as strong town but slowly evolved it into a null read, and now into a stronger wolfread is a heavy investment to make as a wolf. In general I think wolf YoshL would spread his energy 'outwards' and have a broader depth of opinion and rest on his early Haku read instead of putting in the additional effort of evolving on Haku, especially this subtle kind of progression has very low return on investment as a wolf strategy.

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

I feel like a bully so, I'm just going to announce that I'm voting FG until the end of the game unless I get juicy info.

Thank you very much.

That was my last post for tonight.

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

this is a good insight from FG, something I hadn't considered so far. hmmm

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

Here's my schtick

If I think Haku is town, I wolf read FG

Vice versa

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

I'm concerned that FG is starting to look townier

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

This is a really point of comparison w/r/t funnygurl

FG was wolf-reading Haku because of his consistency and lack of paranoia

T-Force was wolf-reading Haku for the exact opposite reason, that Haku was NOT consistent and all over the place

I kind of think this incongruency between the two is more of an indicator that they aren't coordinating, so I might be wrong about FG/T-Force pairing.

The bolded segment is a wolf tell. Look up "concern trolling." Not exactly the same thing but phrasing your read as "a cause of concern" is a really passive way of expressing a read.

I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say that it never actually concerned you.

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

Interesting...

Are we gonna see a Thunderdome here?

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

For the future. If something like this ever happens don't feel the need to swap your vote off of me out of guilt. My personal problems shouldn't dictate the flow of the game. I've slept through EoD a bunch of times in past games and have gotten punished for it. I don't get mad, you guys do what you have to do to play the game

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

Note that even if I voted you, it wasn't going to be a game changer here.

FFA/Ulle still ended up being the main wagon.

I'm pretty sure FFA got read as Phoenix Wright because of the narrative thing and 1-2 wolves might have openly wanted him dead.

FFA also recently afk'd EoD D0 as PR and that looked pretty similar.

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

weak shit

plop lookin a little wolfy

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

YoshL, where do you stand with T-Force now?

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

this post is amazing

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

stank

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

Ugh I'm getting cold feet I need to take a step back for a sec

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

there is a very confusing love triangle between haku-fg-tforce

haku and tforce not aligned?
fg and tforce not aligned?

I think that makes it, {t-force} or {haku+fg}?

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

The game I had in mind was Turbo 30 - Nonary Games with the D0 afk PR btw.

I just looked that up and in TWG 191, ffa was a replacement.

I think this impacts his playstyle as he's just temporary in the game and hasn't time to become grounded.

This might be a better example for wolf FFA @ Senpai.

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

Senpai game triggers my PTSD

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

I take this back after now having read the entire thread

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

Actually the senpai game is a great example of how I can read DBP tbh

I'm not seeing what I saw from him in that game... I think?

I don't know how to read any of you tbh I'm going on gut

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

ps: if it's Day 0 or I'm replacing, I'm less likely to get paranoid because there's less stuff at stake.

I need to like figure out as fast as possible who is what and why. Eventually I reach that roadblock with world building and it becomes super important for me to convince others to either A) follow me on my reads or B) help me realize im wrong if I am.

The main thing that triggers paranoia for me is when I reach that point where I need to convince people to vote somewhere or investigate something. I never know how people will react or why and I usually start feeling some sparks.

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

In this context, that would suggest that funnygurl swapped her vote off of you in order to later farm a townread from you? Is that something that's happened before?

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

Have you tried doing an update on your reads, factoring that DBP is now active?

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

yes

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

I'm town reading what he's been doing this phase.

I prefer to ignore his first phase because honestly not much happened that matters for his slot.

The main reason I wanted to vote him D0 was because of activity.

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

I mean, I could push him for saying that FFA was a hot take in theory.

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

Raeko is my top town

DBP is probably town based on past experiences with him and the gut feeling I have from his posting

T-Force... I'm not sure... I'm trying to not let my personal experiences with him affect his alignment in this game and I'm struggling a bit, so I might have to sheep a little off you guys

If FG dances around a little more, I'm more convinced she's a wolf

I don't know how to read Plop/Sunfan/YoshL

I'm less suspicious of Haku, I think

I forgot who else is in this game

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

Oh Freezin' I'm sorry I forgot about you!

I'm gut reading town lean here.

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

I kinda consider this NAI because you didn't provide explanations as to why so, I have nothing to point at.

It is what it is.

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

DBP now that you're caught up, are you working on reads?

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

Town Plop is more pro actively trying to solve things. This Plop has been quite the minimalist for little reason.

I also loss a wolf Plop before with the exact same pattern so, everything checks for me in that regard.

Sunfan still has a decent chance to be town. I would call this Sunfan meta the "off day Sunfan" where his attention is not fully here, but he's still trying to play when he can.

@Yoshl: I'm mostly interested to hear anything from you that has nothing to do with me. I think this will help a lot.

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

So, yeah. If you guys don't want to vote FG/T-Force, I consider Plop a solid 3rd wagon.

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

I think {Plop/FG} is more likely than {T-Force/FG}.

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

Plop/T-Force is also possible in the world where I'm wrong about FG.

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

Why do I feel myself agreeing with Haku here?

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

Example of minimalistic posting ^

There's no why.

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

This is also working against the T-Force/Plop world.

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

At this juncture I'm almost 100% sure FG/T-Force is W/T or T/W. Admittedly, Haku has been extremely distracting and confusing because of his tangling himself into this conflict. Haku seems to have been roughly 50/50 flip-flopping on FG and T-Force, which would indicate to me a confused town, as opposed to a wolf trying to preemptively position himself advantageously.

It's time for bed now, but as you have probably divined, last phase's EoD is actually extremely dense with information. I think the key to nailing this phase lies in untangling FG/T-Force/Haku/Plop's clusterfuck during that time.

I'll do some heavier digging tomorrow, but remember that FFA/Ulli ended up as T/T. This makes the formation and dissipation of the T-Force wagon extremely valuable to explore. Wolves really have nothing to lose with a T/T wagon, especially on D0, so you should probably observe a lack of panic or drive from certain (wolf) players.

As soon as the T-Force wagon became a likely outcome, these certain players might have appeared more active or engaged, because they suddenly were tasked with defense. In particular, I think Plop fits this bill, with his "leaving the seat warm" on the FFA wagon, as if to siphon votes away from T-Force (and also possibly away from Ulli, in order to pile onto FFA as a way of risk management re: T-Force wagon).

This is partly for my records too, but I'm learning towards wolves in T-Force and Plop. Funnygurl voting for Plop and then onto Ulli is bizarre, and I see the interpretation that FG wanted to protect FFA in order to groom him as a pocket opportunity, but remember that the wolf team is just that-- a team. I don't see FG making such a maneuver on the fly for the sole purpose of optimizing her own long-term status. I'm more inclined to think that wolves would have some very basic notion of long-term objectives, and FG specifically being in the mindset of "well, I can pocket FFA later if I move my vote around!" isn't a likely explanation for that behavior, especially when you consider that in a CFD scenario, there are bigger fish to fry (and keep alive).

I'm inclined to take FG's explanations at face-value here. The wagons were clearly manifesting into FFA/Ulli, and from an intelligence perspective, town FG would stand to gain more by FFA being alive later on, instead of potentially being forced to resolve an unreadable Ulli.

With this in mind, Plop is very likely not a wolf partner with FG. I don't think they're T/T either. T-Force's EoD (and, honestly, D0) behavior is indeed passive, just as he said. But when EoD rolled around, he never really pushed in any direction. It felt like a lack of concern about the outcome--- because, as we know now, the wagons were T/T. It wasn't until T-Force himself came under fire that he started mobilizing more, specifically for self-defense. Plop, whether wittingly or not, threw T-Force a life preserver and distracted the rest of us from this conflict. If I remember correctly, Plop was directly talking to Haku when he made that post about "keeping the seat warm", which indicates to me that Haku/Plop are not W/W either.

These four characters form a system of equations that, in my opinion, give us AT LEAST 1 wolf, with the potential of UP TO 2 wolves. Current mindset is T-Force and Plop. I might be wrong on some details, so I definitely want to reread certain particular passages when I have a clear mind tomorrow.

I heavily encourage the rest of you to at least think of this phase in terms of a T-Force/FG dichotomy.

Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]
 

Hmmm.... That's a good take DBP... and it's noted