Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

would appreciate input

also, if freezin backs out and says he's VT then I'm instantly lynching him and not feeling bad about whatever he flips

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

If tps is going to be modkilled then I am going to push for either no lynch or lynch of tps and if you think otherwise you're just actively trying to make the game end this phase potentially

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

When I am back on a laptop I will make as good of a case as i can as to why ur idea doesn't do anything different.

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

How is giving us another phase for developments and information not doing anything different...? With that logic the game strategy should be to just insta right away at start of day because it does nothing different

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

There is no further mechanical developments that can occur. No one is going back and reading aside from Precarious. If u value that time and pray the the wolves somehow make a mistake in that extra time, then I think ur holding out for a miracle.

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

Rushing to a conclusion arguably contributed to your prior loss; in this situation, tps would be poofed and we would get a nightkill for information to work with probably. If you deny that nightkills can give info, or at least remove variables, then I dont know what to say friend

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

Yeah, the freezin idea might work, since that makes sure he's vengeful, and gets a kill. I was gonna say why not lynch the person he's gonna shoot, but that leaves open that he may be lying. But if he's not lying, he gets bought killed so his power is useless anyways. It's a pretty tough predicament we're in right now. Tps really needs to show up.

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

I still like and prefer the tps lynch if he doesn't show. Im with you here celery.

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

Night killed, not bought killed lmao

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

I do not deny that that is one of the things that nightkills can and do do

They also allow the wolves to push a narrative that they choose

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

more than rushing to a conclusion, I think the events of that game contributed to that loss

I do agree ultimately with what you are saying about that though

this isn't rush tho

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

We're 0-2 and down a pr so far, I don't think it's hard for a wolf to push a narrative right now regardless of anything that happens; frankly I'd rather have a potential narrative than an instant loss tonight.

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

the loss would only occur after THREE count them THREE (TWO if freezin isn't what he says he is, which is still good) chances to hit wolves

THREE lynches is a lot better than one, friend, even if one is on a stupid meme blue role

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

if there's not a wolf in those three (or two) chances then town deserves to lose

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

This makes no sense

Are you even reading the thread

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

Having more """chances""" implies relatively balanced probability which we do not necessarily have
Two of our three chances are decided for us, and one is contingent on a single person which also is not a great chance
I would rather have a full chance properly than a couple fixed choice chances

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

What doesn't make sense? And yeah, i am. Or else how would i make comments on things?

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

this is a full chance plus whatever else you want to call those

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

How are you going to lynch the person I shoot if you lynch me lol.

You didn't specify what the freezin idea even was

Taken as a whole the post is incomprensibile

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

That implies freezin is a full chance if tps is zzzzzz, which I wouldn't say is a full chance

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

You see, prec did all that work and all you have to say is 'you are wrong' - you brought up one point that prec made, but it wasn't what prec was talking about then didn't answer anything else, or fight it, or anything. You shrugged it off then talked about something else.

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

ive kinda lost motivation to go after you so if your a wolf then good job. I could talk about what shoulda-coulda happened at that eod but that doesn't really mean anything.

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

bruh

this robs the wolves of a nightkill by giving town 2 more chances at killing wolves (about that many, at least) than town normally has

call it whatever you will but you're 100000% doing it wrong if you don't take the extra chance (or whatever the fuck you want to call it) to kill wolves

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

hey cel do you still doubt sunfan

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

*as confirmed

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

yes and this debacle t b h isnt helping

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

Similar vibes to freezin in the fe game
Even if freezin was somewhat confirmed he was fishier than a wharf

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

this is like when I was talking to you in the survivor game where I would talk about who we should lynch and why and you didn't want to listen to a word I said

I don't know what to say to you, and I'm not sure we're going to be able to see eye-to-eye here.

This is something I have learned from years of playing this stupid game; if you have more chances/opportunities/whatever to kill wolves than you normally would, you take it.

One scenario involves a modkill on a specific player (yes, I know that we can't control this), a blue being lynched but getting a chance to shoot (this counts because he could be lying and also because it resets what would ordinarily be an even number of players back to an odd number) and his shot can kinda-sorta be counted as an extra lynch (if you want to count it as less than a lynch, whatever, a town is looking at the remaining players and killing one of them, and its pretty good for town regardless of whatever terminology you want to give it).

This far, far, far, far, far outweighs the alternative world of yes, having an extra day phase, but having less whatevers to try and kill wolves with.

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

im going to class I will be back later

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

imma talk this out maybe this will help me with greg

lets say im shit at this game and hes a wolf, and he pulled a fast one
I feel like his partners would only be funny/blind here, for what appears to be his willingness to kill anyone else or be like "sure i guess they can die"
because town greg here doesn't confirm two people like this in this situation, one sure but two nah.

If this is the case, freezin dies in the night and takes someone out, having a fake confirmed go hard saying funny/freezin are town, freezin wouldnt kill one of them, thus creating a misslynch.

Here are freezin's reads, which perfectly line up here:

Let's say we misslynch today if fake greg hard protects his teammates like this, down to 8. Freezin dies, 7, he kills outside of funny/blind 6. That's gg, we loose. (Also it explains why funny is suddenly going after me today, since it's an all or nothing i feel like)

Devils advocate, lets say there is a chance that one of the two between funny/blind is town and not a wolf, then that would mean the 3rd is someone like TPS? I guess? Or prec? I don't have anything to back that up though, but someone i guess who must be then read by freezin as town so greg and whoever wouldn't have to worry about it.

If greg is a wolf here, that would make perfect sense why he would go for proving how he is town by what we thought was a DBP soft, and my initial read on it was wrong. (I looked this over to see how DBP's soft isn't greenchecking sunfan and i still see it as a greencheck on sunfan so fuck me)

However, there is one element that could make that work

This is such a fucking low % chance but what if freezin and sunfan are wolves, and the setup is really BBTTTT* - since no evidence of a SK i'm gonna assume BBTTTTT

That would mean there is a busdriver that falsely checked sunfan i guessed during n2 then, pretty much making this situation gg for us either way. There is such a fucking microscopic chance that this is real, but if it is and this is real at least i made it for this post so hello dead chat i did something right. I have no idea who the 3rd would be here, someone probably seperate who agrees with both freezin and sunfan not fully but more like, half as in "sure ill follow" and ind comes to mind but that could be wrong.


====================================

Now let's say sunfan is town here and the check is real and im not in tinfoil la la land.

1) Let's say sunfan is actually correct and blind/funny are town, and also freezin is real. For me then it's cel/ind/prec. BBKTTT* - we have a misslynch, which might be me and at least to freezin's current reads we are in a better off shape to hitting i think if he still dies in the night. If freezin doesn't die in the night and someone like funny/sun/blind dies then i think we win.

2) Sunfan is real but he is wrong on blind/funny. I think town looses, and I'm not sure if there is anything i can say for greg to change his mind. Funny would be playing a great wolf game and blind is not lol. 3rd would probably be a wild card then, i wouldn't be surprised if anyone fit in with them. If only one of them is a wolf and not the other, then i'm really lost and kinda got nothing. I'll need to think about it more.

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

i hope my logic makes sense since nothing else has apparently to anyone

im kinda on low motivation im still tryin

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

god i hope im right lol

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

I feel like that there is one between blind/prec, with blind being the wolf. I don't see them being a pair at this point and I don't think prec makes that post as a bus. I've played with prec as a wolf and that's not his playstyle. I think funny also defended blind here and went against prec a bit which is interesting

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

There is also a world where funny/blind are wolves and greg is town and i think we still loose if that's the case. I need to iso the posts between them to see if this could be a thing

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

Here are all the posts between funny/blind

D1 early
D3 early

D3 Mid

I excluded the first one about funny asking blind about the movie thing blind was doing

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

okay, i've got a lot of projects to work on due soon and NEED to not come in thread for a few hours to get this done. i'll be back in a few hours.

I'mma ninja you cel # c o n v i e n e n t

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

reading the last 10 pages and then post incoming

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

I more or less agree with the gist of this analysis.

Freezin can't be town under the existing known seven-roll structure, since it necessitates a serial killer. We've had only one night kill the first two nights, and right now we're assuming no P or H roles, so even if a theoretical SK (a) chose 1-shot bulletproof and (b) was hit with it, we would have had two kills at least one night.

So a lot comes down to what Tps claims, given how a claim could change things mechanically. Even my case against Blind needs to be secondary, since it's still merely a case; this is an opportunity to potentially catch a wolf indisputably (I don't believe there's technically any way to fully clear anyone under this framework).

Tps' lack of a claim, much moreso than his inactivity, thus becomes an issue. Since there's no evidence to support the existence of a serial killer, 6:3 is almost certainly the current player ratio, which means the following.



1. Scum have 1 NK; this holds true no matter what the actual game conditions are.

2. Unless Tps is actually a P or H, we have no capacity to stop the NK.

Therefore,

3. A normal mislynch, with no Vengeful/Modkill/other scenarios therefore takes us to 4:3 tomorrow.

4. A normal mislynch + town modkill, or a Vengeful mislynch + Vengekill on a town player ends the game instantly.



Right now, Tps hasn't been modkilled; absent a claim, we would need to decide whether to encourage a modkill, or lynch him.

Assuming a town Tps, the modkill would reduce us to 5:3, which would force either a no lynch or a 3/8 chance of hitting scum (without yet accounting for the complication of a potential Vengeful Freezin). Lynching Town-Tps would end the day, but would take us to a 4:3 scenario tomorrow--in other words, a 3/7 chance of hitting scum. This is an improved ratio, but it could also be achieved via modkill+no lynch; additionally, any 4:3 scenario runs the risk of a single town misvote allowing the wolves to hammer.

Of those scenarios, modkill + no lynch seems the most palatable to me in a vacuum: it maximizes overall discussion time and information gain (we could still evaluate the implications of Tps' flip today), and allows us to make a decision re: Freezin. If Tps were modkilled and his flip doesn't disprove Freezin's claim, we would have to weigh the advantages of no lynch vs lynching Freezin. Modkill + NL takes us to a 4:3 tomorrow in the worst case (town-Tps) scenario; Modkill Town-Tps + Vengeful-Freezin means everything would come down to the Vengekill. If it hits scum, we would be at 3:2 tomorrow. If it doesn't, it's game over.

If Tps' flip or claim were to disprove Freezin's claim, that would obviously simplify things enormously.

The problem with looking at things in a vacuum is that ignores all prior case-building and discussion; I'd still push for a Vengekill on Blind for example, the potential extra benefit being the slight chance of catching a wolf-Freezin not exposed by a Tps flip. There are a couple possibilities at night if we go the lynch or MK+NL route, but none seem that useful, and they potentially allow for gamesmanship on the wolves' part.

Under this framework (and assuming Tps doesn't condemn Freezin), I feel like the best scenarios are, in order

1. Tps claims, ideally well before the end of the day
2. Modkill Tps + lynch Vengeful Freezin + Vengekill the most likely suspect
2(b). Modkill Tps + NL (the downside here is that if Freezin is Vengeful, it'll likely never actually get the chance to activate)
3. Lynch Tps

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

Claim first.

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

U said u think earlier blind is always town what changed

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

Prec that post is pretty gross

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

Xiz u spent an awful lot of time in tinfoil land there bud I'm not sure if that did u any good.

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

Do you mean in format or content? If you don't like how it's presented, sorry. If you disagree with the content, well, I suspect you can understand the situation you're in mechanically. Either you're a wolf, or you're a town power role whose power only activates when you're lynched.

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

Ok, I'm caught up now.

I see that we're claiming, I'm a blue role. I was hoping to not have to be put in a situation to claim and didn't realize there was a hidden quality post requirement when I began operating under my current posting habits.

Our best chance of winning now appears for me to avoid being modkilled and for a normal phase to play out, I have 3 hours of availability for posting right now and I am compiling my town/scum leans list and will be posting it shortly.

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

That's not going to fly. What is your specific role?

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

Actually hold that thought for a moment.

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

Prec is right TPS, we need ur specific role.

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

No we need it from him.

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

I've been reviewing the game rolls. The Gunsmith RR appears to be the only time where two points are used to generate only a single role. An additional I, P, H, K, or R would generate one additional blue role, which means (assuming Tps' truthfulness), we're at KRRXTTT, where X isn't a T--which doesn't implicate Freezin.

I think it would still be better for Tps to fully claim, but I'm still trying to wrap my mind around the potential implications of doing so.

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

There are other instances where that happens (e.g. three I's generates two trackers) but none are relevant to the existing body of claims. If Tps and Freezin are telling the truth, then it seems to be TTT.

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

Thoughts on this? I can see a bunch of you viewing the thread.

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

prec didn't respond to this at all :(

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

Even if you assume I misinterpreted his explanation, and that his excuse is valid, it still doesn't explain the Whats post. That was an extreme overreaction to something relatively minor. If you had bothered to read my subsequent deep dive into Blind, you'd have also noticed that he sheeped other arguments at least twice during D2, leading me to suspect that my initial interpretation--that he saw people discussing the dumbtell, then went fully in on someone else's work--is correct.

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

i think it is fine for him to full claim

wolves are already in a game where if freezin lives through this day (idk i saw chat about lynching him) then they need to decide whether they're going to kill him and hope he guesses wrong if he decides to take a shot

if they decide to play that game then it doesn't matter what role tps is

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

Now since you're obviously here, what's your take on Tps' claim?

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

Oh, ok. You just don't know how to read then.

I said "I WAS gonna say" as in, instead of lynching you, we lynch your kill instead. BUT, I don't like that idea too much because you could be lying, or the wolves night kill you and we lose your power. Comprehensible enough for you now?

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

Town Leans:

Cel, Freezn, inDHeart, Funnygurl

Neurtal:

Sunfan, Prec

Scum lean:

Blindreper, Xiz

I've had a town lean on sunfan all game so I'm honestly a little surprised to see that he isn't seeing the forest through the trees here.

Precarious worries me a little bit for his reaction, I agree with inDHeart that his delayed claim (yeah I know pot calling kettle black) was weird, and his back and forth with Blindreper seemed really forced after a while. I really get the feeling that Xiz is capable of coaching Blind up on that and was happy to take advantage of freezn bringing that fight back up yesterday, and that I'm relatively confident that there is 1 wolf out of Blind/Xiz/Prec.

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

Am I wrong in interpreting this post as an indication that DBP checked at least 1/2 of cel/funny and wanted to save one of them because of it? I re-read the thread and didn't see a mention of this which is why I was wondering if I misinterpretted the power. That's the major reason I'm putting them town lean right now and I want to make sure that's not with faulty logic at hand.

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

also i'm like ~certain at this point that no wolf fake claimed, bc they're rather sure of how many Ts are in the setup right now and fake claiming would require them to believe there's an SK, i think

the SK could know there's a fake claim but would never be able to express that because it's self-outing

the VT pool is the lynch pool

sunfan is probably just clear because peeking the counterwagon makes sense if you're dbp

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

EBWOP: Okay, I see you posted.

Here's how I'm seeing it: the wolves would be inclined to eliminate a power role given the opportunity, since most could either implicate or kill them, or block their own NKs. That would make Tps and Freezin likely night targets. But, things are complicated if Tps is a Hider or a Doctor/Jailkeeper. Attacking Hider Tps would result in a failed NK; not attacking him could allow him to protect or jailkeep depending on what if any JOAT powers have been used (TTT gives us two goons and a JOAT).

If Tps is an I or an R, he should imo reveal that and any investigative results.

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

he voted both of them within the 15-minute span before the end of that day. if he'd checked either of them and gotten back good "no gun" results, he wouldn't do that

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

it was believed for zzz reasons that sunfan was checked

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

ah i forgot hider can't be direct killed

yeah that's probably good enough to not have to full claim. the doc/jk stuff is more at the margins but we can at least leave wolves another game to play at

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

is xiz mostly a paranoia scumlean?

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

or poe?

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

This is actually a good point.

TTTT requires a serial killer. We know we have RR from DBP.

That leaves TTT and TTTTT as the only possible valid configurations without a serial killer (we can assume no SK exists based on the night results so far).

If only one of Tps and Freezin is scum, then the other is town, and can be presumed to be telling the truth about their role. That would give us RRxTTTT--which is impossible because of the SK. If both are scum, then RRTTTTT is possible--but Freezin softed his claim in advance, and this would be an unlikely situation to gambit toward--there was no guarantee of a massclaim.

So both telling the truth is the most likely scenario.

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

I think he's most likely to have guessed DBP as a power role after the way he went after him on Day 1, including leaving his vote on him.

He backed off onto FG day 2 but that was a pretty weak vote in itself. He has played pretty chaotically in general and is one of the few people in this game that I have actually played more than one game with before, so it'a combination of motive and what I believe he is capable of.

I'm not necessarily at the point of putting a vote on him yet though, I'm curious to hear what BlindReper thinks of him.

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

let us overthink this dramatically since cel is still zzzing about it

the post about sunfan is very shortly into the day and wanting xiz to dispense with the thing about how he handled his syhto read and whose input he got

putting me and funny before sunfan ~always suggests he checked neither of us, and pulling off funny suggests he didn't check her and see a gun either

i think his check is almost certainly in one of his listed town, and outside his lynch pool. there's an outside shot that he checked freezin and saw a gun but i think he would have pushed that harder if that's what he was doing - he specifically responded to a question about "why are we defaulting to freezin" but then didn't seem to mind the wagon fizzling

the only person not between these lists is xiz, who i think he'd be putting in his town if he'd checked him

and as i just mentioned, sunfan was the d1 counterwagon to a town lynch

it's possible it's prec but imo that doesn't explain his posts to prec about the longer content seeming prewritten and wanting him to interact. that seems like a kind of cover drop to me that would be a stretch to fake

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

I believe the consensus was that DBP sort of softed Sun? Regardless, at most one of them could have been checked by DBP, and if that is the case, there's no certain way to know which one.

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

this conforms with the point I made earlier in the phase so I am a happy camper

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

ind celery xiz blind prec sunfan 3 woofs in here

soft clear the sunfan and we get ind celery xiz blind prec

3 wolves in there.. one's actually.. town

i'd include myself in that list, but.. like.. fmpov.. lol

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

opinion: ind and sunfan are the same alignment

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

o * two's actually town since there's five in that list that's a good list

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

this is literally a pointless post, friend

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

this u


be more like this

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

I haven't sheeped any body this game bro.

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

ok you know what it's pointless for you

NOT FOR ME

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

YOU CAN'T EVEN WRITE WITH THAT PENCIL THING IT'S USELESS TOO

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

its a post
its a post with a point
!

Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]
 

Are you ghosting my post?