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mi40 08-26-2020 07:36 PM

Stock Market Chit Chat
 
hello, with the recent boom of new retail investors and the general age demographic of this forum slowly rising over time, i wanted to see if anybody else here dabbles in the stock market or even just financial planning. you know, the basic 401k, roth IRAs, things like that.

recently the only things i'm really passionate about is the stock market. we've seen a "once in a generation" type of collapse earlier this year with the introduction of COVID-19 and economy shutdowns. this is like the 2008 global financial crisis, except it happened much faster and much sharper than people expected - in both the DOWN and UP direction.

do you have any comments on the federal reserve, the future of the dollar, commodities like gold and lumber, certain sectors (energy, financials, technology, consumer cyclicals, etc)?



i would like to start off by saying i'm personally very concerned about the possibility of a second stimulus not happening (the powers that be do not reach an agreement in time) and things like eviction moratoriums running out, CARES act mortgage forbearance running out. i feel a housing inventory increase will be happening in the future and when it does, housing prices will crash. maybe the time to buy a house might be coming soon.. prices are super high even though the economy looks doomed from a main street standpoint.

mi40 08-26-2020 07:40 PM

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 
figured i might as well post some positions for those who know the speak

15x SPY $350c 10/16
20x QQQ $310c 10/16
10x GLD $190c 9/18 (in case of a 2nd stimulus announced, inflation expected + gold rising)
2x FB $275c 1/15/21
2x BABA $250c 1/15/21
5x SNAP $20c 1/15/21
5x MSFT $215c 10/16

choof 08-26-2020 07:42 PM

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 
I'm dum

mi40 08-26-2020 07:43 PM

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by choof (Post 4741278)
dumb capitalist shit who gives a fuck

well with lots of money being printed, the US dollar's buying power's bound to go down. banks will give you crappy %s. having your dollar sit around in cash or in banks for measly 1% interests is not going to help you beat inflation :(

dAnceguy117 08-26-2020 08:18 PM

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by choof (Post 4741278)
dumb capitalist shit who gives a fuck

yeah but most folks already have to play the game (in terms of where they work / who pays them) to get by. might as well go the extra mile and then redistribute on a small scale.

that's my only contribution to this thread though, I have an open roth ira and never look at it, hopefully it trends ok enough in the long term lol

mi40 08-31-2020 07:54 PM

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 
update:

without another announcement of the stimulus, gold prices tanked for a day so i unloaded that.
the general market (S&P 500) and NASDAQ had insanely strong days the past 7 sessions and with the new Apple and Tesla splits taking effect today, both of their stocks have been on a tear.

i'm seeing Tesla/Apple trend on twitter right now and i'm seeing "TikTok influencers" touting their stock market gains and giving advice on how to invest.

i feel a dot com bubble sort of atmosphere here.. nothing seems right. needless to say, i'm afraid we're due for a heavy correction and the music will stop playing. and when it does, retail investors will be the ones left standing.. and it won't be pretty. just don't know when the music will stop. until then, remember to invest in your future wisely!!

new positions today!!
COST 11/20 $360c
QQQ 11/20 $315c
QQQ 10/16 $305c
SPY 11/20 $360c
UVXY 9/4 $25c
AAPL 11/20 $140c

Funnygurl555 08-31-2020 08:41 PM

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 
i personally think this is a good thread topic but can't contribute 'cause i'm not well-versed in this type of stuff

gold stinger 08-31-2020 09:06 PM

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 
I've considered getting involved in stock market in the near future, just can't really get into it at the moment because, y'know, living at the bottom of the barrel at 25 years old and don't really make the kind of money to meaningfully contribute to the stock market.

Still quite interested in it though.

Covid-19 doesn't necessarily help my case either here. Kudos to the guys near my age that can afford placing savings in the stock market to make meaningful short-term returns.

mi40 08-31-2020 09:39 PM

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 
well, don't fret it too much. i honestly believe there is a bubble going on right now and when it pops, it's going to wipe out probably trillions and won't be pretty.

everyone and their moms are getting into it (you have tiktok influencers and youtubers who tweet about ~the market~) and i just see people everywhere doing stupid stuff and somehow they keep getting rewarded for it.

everybody needs an exit plan. i mean, look at this guy and the comments in the thread.
https://twitter.com/KEEMSTAR/status/1300210707879940103


DossarLX ODI 09-1-2020 01:22 PM

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 
Yeah what you don't see posted as often are the big losses. See this Twitter comment as an example: https://twitter.com/TWolvesSZN/statu...10837819396096

WirryWoo 09-1-2020 03:49 PM

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 
Out of curiosity, what are your thoughts about the possibility of policy makers manipulating the gains/losses of the stock market? There was some talk earlier this year about how that could have played a motivating role in the U.S.'s slow response to COVID-19. Excluding inflated death rates current in the U.S., are there some potential ramifications associated from this collusive effort assuming that was true?

mi40 09-1-2020 05:27 PM

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by WirryWoo (Post 4741883)
Out of curiosity, what are your thoughts about the possibility of policy makers manipulating the gains/losses of the stock market? There was some talk earlier this year about how that could have played a motivating role in the U.S.'s slow response to COVID-19. Excluding inflated death rates current in the U.S., are there some potential ramifications associated from this collusive effort assuming that was true?

i have no doubt that policy makers are pushing SOME sort of agenda, it's just that the general public (including you and me) don't know exactly what it is. people always say the stock market is looking forward, and i get that - but sometimes it blows my mind that a 30% GDP contraction hasn't done much to the stock market in general.

i think the problem here is that the businesses that are going out of business are not publically traded ones, or companies even. and the big name companies that have a plethora of cash to plow through COVID with will just end up buying up / soaking up all the competition and business that previously other consumers went to.

on the topic of collusive efforts, if the republican party doesn't win.. you damn well know they'll try their damnest to crash the market so they can put the blame on the dems. and if the republicans win, they'll probably just keep the charade going for as long as possible and then blame the eventual downfall on the dems.

if the dems win, they'll do the same to keep their image up.. blah blah..

the potential ramification is that, at some point, the market will call the feds' bluff and finally we'll see the effects on the real market. you can see knee jerk reactions happening in the gold/dollar exchange every time somebody like jerome powell speaks, the spokesperson for the one policymaking entity that everybody has their eyes on right now.

Funnygurl555 09-1-2020 07:52 PM

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by mi40 (Post 4741795)
well, don't fret it too much. i honestly believe there is a bubble going on right now and when it pops, it's going to wipe out probably trillions and won't be pretty.

do you think that's a good time to invest then?

edit: i mean when the bubble pops

mi40 09-1-2020 08:02 PM

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Funnygurl555 (Post 4741897)
do you think that's a good time to invest then?

edit: i mean when the bubble pops

the dot com bubble lasted for some years (although it really took off in the last few months of its duration) and it was completely different to what it is now.

back then, companies with literally 0 relation to the .com or Internet just slapped on '.com' at the end of their current names and it would just skyrocket in value for no real reason..

at least now we have things like apple and even tesla which has an actual business model.. and some stuff like nikola (without a real business model) being valued at tens of billions.

if anything, people should look to make money off of this stupidity and the retail investors flooding (this includes you, and me) but also have a valid exit plan. after joining the workforce i've met all kinds of people, including people whom you'd never expect to be "wealthy," like people who've flipped houses during 2005-2007 for millions of dollars when they knew all too well it was a bubble.

basically, the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. so why not enjoy the ride? personally speaking i'm up $18,000 today and i didn't even contribute anything to society. it's really, a joke honestly.

Funnygurl555 09-1-2020 08:33 PM

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by mi40 (Post 4741899)
personally speaking i'm up $18,000 today and i didn't even contribute anything to society. it's really, a joke honestly.

what

phe0nixblade 09-1-2020 11:15 PM

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 
i invested a little into tesla and im seeing good return on that lol other than that i don't know shit i just knew tesla would be big one day

trumaestro 09-2-2020 11:18 AM

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by mi40 (Post 4741899)
if anything, people should look to make money off of this stupidity and the retail investors flooding (this includes you, and me) but also have a valid exit plan. after joining the workforce i've met all kinds of people, including people whom you'd never expect to be "wealthy," like people who've flipped houses during 2005-2007 for millions of dollars when they knew all too well it was a bubble.

basically, the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. so why not enjoy the ride? personally speaking i'm up $18,000 today and i didn't even contribute anything to society. it's really, a joke honestly.

I like that there is an increase in market participation. It should mean more people can become financially literate, and learn how to read financial statements.

I still question why some new-ish companies see huge share price growth without the profits to back it up. It know it's based on potential profits and possible future cash flows, but at some point it becomes a question of just how long you'd have to wait to see actual profit out of the company. Hype only lasts so long. That's why I like Warren Buffet; his strategy is actually pretty simple with time in market and investing in business models you can understand.

As far as your last point, you can consider the taxes you pay on your earnings a contribution to society. :)

Poison- 09-2-2020 01:29 PM

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 
I mainly trade Canadian stocks as they're free on the platform I use.

I have a pretty conservative portfolio so far. Mostly just holding for retirement, but definitely willing to take some risk before this tech bubble pops.

mi40 09-2-2020 06:31 PM

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Poison- (Post 4741975)
I mainly trade Canadian stocks as they're free on the platform I use.

I have a pretty conservative portfolio so far. Mostly just holding for retirement, but definitely willing to take some risk before this tech bubble pops.

just gotta dance until the music stops. then we need to sit down.

Quote:

Originally Posted by phe0nixblade (Post 4741923)
i invested a little into tesla and im seeing good return on that lol other than that i don't know shit i just knew tesla would be big one day

tesla is just insane.. i refuse to touch it though.

Quote:

Originally Posted by trumaestro (Post 4741970)
I like that there is an increase in market participation. It should mean more people can become financially literate, and learn how to read financial statements.

I still question why some new-ish companies see huge share price growth without the profits to back it up. It know it's based on potential profits and possible future cash flows, but at some point it becomes a question of just how long you'd have to wait to see actual profit out of the company. Hype only lasts so long. That's why I like Warren Buffet; his strategy is actually pretty simple with time in market and investing in business models you can understand.

As far as your last point, you can consider the taxes you pay on your earnings a contribution to society. :)

funnily enough i think the current state of the market is bringing in people who are not willing to learn about the fundamentals or technicals behind 'trading and investing' and they will permanently take their leave once they get burned. i'm already seeing a lot of it happen after tesla drew down yesterday and today. people can't even seem to stomach 2 days of fat red candles going downwards.

and as for the huge share price growth, the market looks forwards.. sometimes too forwards. like zoom for example. i don't think the market actually cares about profit anymore. because if they did, intel should be way higher, but it's not - because people only look at the potential room for growth. the only exception to 'potential growth' would be megacaps like apple/amazon where there is still unlimited room for growth based on their business model & scale.

and yeah, that short-term gains tax is going to suck. especially as a california resident. i'm thinking of moving to someplace like washington if i get bigger and bigger.

trumaestro 09-2-2020 07:23 PM

Re: Stock Market Chit Chat
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by mi40 (Post 4741996)
funnily enough i think the current state of the market is bringing in people who are not willing to learn about the fundamentals or technicals behind 'trading and investing' and they will permanently take their leave once they get burned. i'm already seeing a lot of it happen after tesla drew down yesterday and today. people can't even seem to stomach 2 days of fat red candles going downwards.

Sounds like someone needs to explain the concept of risk to people before they invest.

Do you think that this is because of a rise in investment social media (like Keemstar shown above), or more easy to use apps like RobinHood opening the market to more people? (Probably both)

Quote:

Originally Posted by mi40 (Post 4741996)
and as for the huge share price growth, the market looks forwards.. sometimes too forwards. like zoom for example. i don't think the market actually cares about profit anymore. because if they did, intel should be way higher, but it's not - because people only look at the potential room for growth. the only exception to 'potential growth' would be megacaps like apple/amazon where there is still unlimited room for growth based on their business model & scale.

I think that one force you won't see too much in just the stock market is still going to be interest rates. Remember, companies raise capital either through selling shares or taking on/issuing debt. Debt has been so cheap for so long there is little incentive to not take more debt. Debt magnifies returns for the shares you do sell too. The long term effect is a constant upward pressure on share prices. Investors want dividends too, but a limited number of shares pushes prices up.

As far as future growth, I think more investors need to look at what happened with the We company. Grew to be "worth" billions, but had no profits and died VERY quick. It emphasizes the need to understand both financial statements and the business model you'll be investing in. Also judge executives. I like this video on it.


Quote:

Originally Posted by mi40 (Post 4741996)
and yeah, that short-term gains tax is going to suck. especially as a california resident. i'm thinking of moving to someplace like washington if i get bigger and bigger.

Can't speak on American tax, so good luck on that. Keep some cash in reserve for it.


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