Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

I don’t think we should be looking at statistical probabilities as a method to solve the setup, cause realistically both of those setups are possible

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

Depending on whatever the soft is, I’m gonna choose to believe both MML and dbp or I’m gonna probably vote dbp

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

Sure, but when someone says the difference is marginal and "effectively the same", then that has to be corrected if the one possibility is 27 times more likely than the other.. right?

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

It wouldn't have really been that big a risk for DBP to claim. DBP was near insta twice and the thread climate was very much against him. I've seen scum make last ditch claims like that all the time, even though they usually aren't successful.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

I knew this was gonna be too obtuse but it was too fun to stick in there, and plus it's a soft that nobody else can use to PR hunt me (or so I thought) and only would make sense unless I explained what's so special about SNNs

when any neuron in the network fires, it inhibits the activation of any "nearby" neurons. this is commonly believed to be an energy-efficiency measure in the human brain so that it doesn't need 100 neurons to fire when 1 neuron has the same information. the metaphor here is that when I "activate" I "block" another neuron from firing. it's something that nobody else would ever get on their own, but was also something that was DISTINCTLY roleblocker and not angel, cop, etc. (except I guess for mason, which Xiz misinterpreted it as)

following is a literal soft, replying to a question about town roleblockers

one of the reasons I blew up against Xiz was that he was PR hunting me and Duskfall. Xiz brought up the spiking neural networks thing as why he thought I was a mason so I made it a point to dismiss it entirely for self-protection. After Xiz says that he read my opening posts as softs:

when FFA fakeclaiming cop, I got excited made some references to him getting spiked if he didn't rescind his claim

before he hardclaimed, I left these references to see if he would back off of me without me needing to out myself:

(b-buddy being deliberate)

These pages are the mechanisms by which the blocker neuron stifles the activity of other neurons in the network.

Five hours later I came back and just full-claimed because FFA was totally willing to throw the game for his own ego and stubbornness

that's how I created a context for softing roleblocker that should have been 100% safe against PR hunting

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

Yea I suppose, I mean math isn’t really my thing either, but I wouldn’t decide a vote based on something being more mathematically likely in any case, unless it was like obscenely ridiculous odds

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

Looks like we're approaching the leap of faith lottery game where DBP/MML were both town and all the outsiders have the entire wolf team.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

Bolth hard claim please.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

No because you're not considering the actual statistical distribution of setups in the entire game. What's the standard deviation? It might be the case that TTTT is the "mean" set of T rolls, but even though the literal probability of TT is off by 25x, that 25x difference doesn't mean anything until you do a more comprehensive analysis and contextualize it against the other T-rolls. For example, TT is more likely than TTTTTTT and TTTTTT. So yeah, TTTT is more likely than TT but not in a meaningful way-- it's still like the 3rd-4th most likely outcome if you roll the entire setup

you can prove this with Monte-Carlo simulation if you want to

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

DBP's soft seems like a bit of a stretch. It's not something that has an obvious connection with the role like my soft

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

I mean, you're not wrong with this but it's irrelevant because I'm not focusing on just the TT vs TTTT. The more important change is BBB vs just B.

That's why I calculated probability for the two likeliest setups given the existing claims, in full, instead of just comparing TTTT/TT or BBB/B.

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

Yeah, all other non-T roles have the same 10% chance. AAB is the same as VCB is the same as BBB. The number of T slots is the only significant factor--- the other slots are uniformly 10% for each one

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

....ok, at that point either we believe DBP had planned the soft for a really long time or he's legit.

Meaning town literally just imploded on itself this game and wolves didnt even have to work for it.

What utter fools we are. I'm starting to get fucking livid about it again. I fucking wish i had just paid enough attention to had call out FFA's bullshit claim myself and keep DBP hidden instead of letting stupid town out two fu king PRs

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

@DBP if you're town, then yesterday must've been somewhat illuminating for you, no?

being in the center of that clusterfuck, what were you thinking about the people commenting on your slot and did anyone stick out to you as having a particular agenda?

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

I was having fun ok

as a soft it's an encryption mechanism that nobody else can independently solve to nightkill me and has exactly one proper semantic meaning as a soft: roleblocker

Spiking NNs in particular are the only ones with the blocking mechanism, that's literally the thing that makes them unique

it should be pretty fucking obvious by now that I'm a roleblocker and I'm pretty annoyed that I have to spend my time defending it against stupid standards and tinfoil possibilities

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

I did earlier

VT

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

....

I'll believe DBP
I'll believe Leetic

----
I think Shadow is getting a free pass here because the thread is nuts, but I had Uli has town and he's being after

----
I've no strong reason to townread Dusk
I've no strong reason to townread Haku
I've no reason whatever to townread Bolth
I've no reason whatever to even keep Jessie alive

If not for the complete clusterhell that are these claims, i probably would have voted Jessie last phase

Dusk and Haku had attempted blocks. One most certainly was blocked. From my perspective in reads it comes down to Bolth and Jessie likely scum, so who doea it nake sense for them to be partner with the most outta Dusk and Haku

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

Haku did you link me your old reads list or did you never make any?

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

After?

Trying to say around here

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread
 

What’s the chances they are both scum?